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We have the wrong "flattening of the curve" in the U.S.
The pathetically slow, sluggish response to #COVID19 testing, social distancing, key decisions, aggressive action. As the virus impact quickly grows.
@CDCgov @WhiteHouse @US_FDA
As @genomedan points out "It's even worse that that"
so I added the real US #COVID case graph
With adjusted case graph via @genomedan
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
A new @ScienceMagazine paper is the best evidence yet for the people without symptoms ("undocumented," i.e. with no or mild Sx, not tested) driving the spread #COVID19
science.sciencemag.org/content/early/… brilliant modeling of synthetic outbreak
via @hholdenthorp
If anyone questioned the value of social and physical distancing, this ought to help squelch it.
#StayHomeSaveLives stayhomesavelives.us
I'm taking the liberty of changing the headline of this very good @CNN piece
by @elizcohencnn cnn.com/2020/03/14/hea…
Read 3 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
Why broad and random #COVID19 testing, not just for those sick, provides critical insights
wsj.com/articles/its-d… by Neeraj Sood @USCPrice @SchaefferCenter
In South Korea, it helped us learn that the young are frequently without symptoms but carriers, a key basis of spread
We're so far behind on testing in the US that its impact will be reduced vs the best model but that doesn't mean we shouldn't proceed
propublica.org/article/how-so… by @SteveEngelberg @propublica

Yet we have our @Surgeon_General @JeromeAdamsMD spreading misinformation that South Korea was able to do this because it is an authoritarian state @foxandfriends (Thx @AlexWardVox @voxdotcom, via @carlzimmer)
Read 3 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
For #COVID19, we'll take all the good news we can.
Lack of transmission of virus in 4 pregnancies to the newborns (1st report on this important question)
@FrontPediatrics frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
Actually it's the 2nd report, 1st was @TheLancet with lack of vertical transmission in 9 pregnancies (1 week ago, I'd missed that one) thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
So it's some good news replicated.
And a 3rd report of 10 pregnancies without vertical transmission atm.amegroups.com/post/view/clin… thanks @sgdambrauskas
The numbers are still small (23 total) but encouraging
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Lars Duursma
@LarsDuursma
Elke vergelijking met normale griep is gevaarlijk omdat #COVIDー19 veel erger is en het absoluut CRUCIAAL is om Italiaanse toestanden te voorkomen. Het zou wél goed zijn als meer mensen zich realiseren dat ook normale griep 60-90 (!) levens PER DAG eist.

rivm.nl/monitoring-ste…
De huidige maatregelen om te zorgen dat ons zorgstelsel het virus nog aankan ('flattening the curve') zijn absoluut cruciaal en *iedereen* zou zich ook moeten houden aan de RIVM-adviezen rondom hygiëne en social distancing:

rivm.nl/coronavirus/co…
Tegelijkertijd moeten we onder ogen zien dat dit een wereldwijde pandemie is en dat wát de politiek ook beslist, er helaas altijd heel veel doden zullen vallen.

De mortaliteit lijkt bij goed beleid zo'n 0,5% tot 0,9% en bij onderschatting zo'n 3 tot 5%.

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co…
Read 9 tweets
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Chris Carter
@scorp99cam
I am not an expert. I am making my best guesses of options USA can take to address the #COVIDー19 pandemic based on reading experts. Things will change fast and leaders need to move yesterday to avoid disaster scenario.
Starting with my two resources that helped me assemble my thoughts. First this explaining how flattening the curve helps
ms.mcmaster.ca/~bolker/misc/p…
My second source was this thread comparing UK strategy vs flattening the curve.
Read 20 tweets
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Chicago Community Bond Fund
@ChiBondFund
This is a thread about why it is absolutely essential that we get people out of jails, prisons, & immigration detention during the #COVIDー19 pandemic. It will include information & demands for how to #StopCOVID19inJails .

The health of people inside & all of us depends on it.
This piece by @premaldharia explains how #COVIDー19 could spark a humanitarian crisis inside prisons and jails. slate.com/news-and-polit… #StopCOVID19inJails
Jails and prisons are the perfect incubators for #COVIDー19. Health care in these facilities is often abysmal. This article from @nhbaptiste explains what jails and prisons should be doing to improve access to healthcare. motherjones.com/politics/2020/… #StopCOVID19inJails
Read 34 tweets
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Moritz Kuhn
@kuhnmo
@christianbaye13 & me have been thinking about the big differences in mortality rates so far during the corona outbreak in Europe. The differences in case-fatality rates are humongous. Italy has one of 6% while countries like Norway, Denmark & Germany have rates still close to 0.
Of course the rates will likely converge somewhat over time as the virus spreads and there are many effects in this. Division bias may play a role, as does the time since the outbreak.
However, we thought maybe there is something to learn in this in order to help to organize our lives in a way to minimize the risks for us and we pose to others. We picked up a striking data difference that @AndreasShrugged pointed out.
Read 23 tweets
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COVID19
@V2019N
The city of Wuhan, China, where #COVIDー19 started, waited weeks before acknowledging human-to-human transmission and taking measures to control it. Wuhan thus experienced an out-of-control epidemic that overwhelmed the health care system.
Other cities in China watched Wuhan’s experience and imposed strict controls at a much earlier stage in their epidemic: They closed schools, sharply limited social contact, and traced and isolated cases and contacts. These early interventions dramatically slowed transmission.
These experiences, & historical parallels, like 1918 flu, show early and sustained imposition of measures to limit social contact will slow the epidemic. This is desirable for many reasons — fewer total people get infected in a slowly moving epidemic... bostonglobe.com/2020/03/11/opi…
Read 9 tweets
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Robᵉʳᵗ Graham😷
@ErrataRob
What do computer viruses teach us about #COVIDー19? I don't think anything, but in this thread I'm going to try to draw corollaries anyway, because cyber.
"Don't touch your face" is stupid advice, just like "don't open suspicious attachments" or "don't click on suspicious links in emails". Email is designed to have attachments and links, asking people to not use the product as designed is nonsense.
This video went viral (sic) of a health official advising people to not touch their face as she, and the people behind her, touch their faces. People are going to click on email links and touch their faces.
Read 16 tweets

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