I am not an expert. I am making my best guesses of options USA can take to address the #COVIDー19 pandemic based on reading experts. Things will change fast and leaders need to move yesterday to avoid disaster scenario.
Starting with my two resources that helped me assemble my thoughts. First this explaining how flattening the curve helps
ms.mcmaster.ca/~bolker/misc/p…
ms.mcmaster.ca/~bolker/misc/p…
My second source was this thread comparing UK strategy vs flattening the curve.
1) 70% of us will either acquire this or delay infection long enough for a vaccine next year. 70% is my assumption of herd immunity
2) how we choose to get to the 70% is entirely up to us
3) goal is to reach a consistent level of infection that doesn’t overwhelm hospitals
4) we want an Re at ~1 and we have to choose a path of all bad options. Get it over with or delay for a vaccine
5) get it over with means you should be very creative in maximizing hospital capacity. Like WWII levels of production and expansion. If you’re not effective here, this strategy results in so many deaths.
6) delay for vaccine may have heavy economic costs. I don’t think we know yet how much social distancing is required to hit ~1 Re. At minimum every person in this country should be wearing nurse droplet masks at all times.
7) if masks are all that’s needed to hit ~1 Re, great! Life can continue as is mostly! Need to ramp up mask production to astronomical levels but that’s easy
8) probably should do a combination of both. Ramp up hospital capacity and enforcement of social distancing measures like masks
9) Another potential option is take a risk with limited information that vaccine going into preliminary testing is safer or less costly than other options and start ramping up now to give to Americans before we know it’s safe
10) I think I’d be putting the full force of industry into mask production and hospital capacity and hope that is enough
11) I don’t think the get it over with plan is worth the risk especially if all that is needed is masks to keep Re ~1
11) thank you for attending my TED talk
@threadreaderapp unroll this please
* An additional thought is following China or South Korea by first getting control by strict lockdown. Then have nationwide testing in place. Then raise or lower social distancing strictness based on surveillance data of testing. Requires discipline
I’m not that confident government in USA is capable of doing the best option that requires the most infrastructure and discipline. But hopefully some experts can take over the response and lead them to best solutions
Regardless, we need WWII Levels of global cooperation and strategy to beat this without devastating impact to social and economic to the world
Based on these NO2 live pictures. I’m becoming convinced the secret to a “delay til vaccine” strategy is masks on every human and massive testing capabilities. Wuhan is back on but very few cases in a city nearly the size of New York City! 
