Thread by @jessieabbate

Brilliant audio from a #covid19 webinar with ID epidemiologist @DFisman explaining why and how we need to act to avoid following in Italy's footsteps.
register.gotowebinar.com/recording/1670…

Major points:

1. The US will likely be as bad as Iran for exporting cases, at least for Canada 1/n

2. If we do nothing, 70% of people will get it (during the first wave of the epidemic). If we implement moderate social distancing measures, 30% are still likely to get it.

3. With strong social distancing measures (see Singapore & China) the epidemic can be controlled

2/n

4. When to implement social distancing measures is a balancing act. Act too late, the hospitals will be inundated and people will die due to lack of ICU beds. Act too soon, there's not enough "social capital" because people will not believe that it's really necessary.

3/n

5. When to act really depends on detecting community spread. If it hits a nursing home first, you'll see the deaths because the virus is remarkably deadly in older folks. If not, it could spread for a while before it is noticed, and will be harder to control.

4/n

6. To detect community spread, Canada has started testing at "sentinel" clinics, where #Covid19 has been added to the panel of routine random tests in anyone with flu-like symptoms. This is how community spread can be detected early, helping decision-makers.

5/n

7. #COVUD19 is a major health event not seen in our lifetimes, similar to the 1918 flu.

8. It is not Flu. It is SARS-CoV-2: SARS, the sequel. It is probably 20-200 times more deadly than the flu.

6/n

9. Italy is a society where personal liberties are valued and protected similar to US & Canada, but people will comply with drastic measures when they are scared enough. But reactive (vs proactive) measures like this mean their epidemic will be massive.

7/n

10. The flu of 1918 didn't end until 1921.
We might have a vaccine in a year or 18 months, but until then, expect continued disruptions because it will keep finding it's way into pockets of susceptible people. But it's very hard to predict.

8/n

11. It's sad, but it's probably a good time to talk with older folks about what they would want if they were to get very sick.

12. There are lots of good people on Twitter to follow. @BNONews @SRileyIDD @AdamJKucharski @mlipsitch @ScottGottliebMD @DrBonnieHenry @CPHO_Canada

9/n

Finally, shout out to @csaeconnect for hosting the webinar and making it publicly available!

Listen for yourself to really get all these points (and more) from an expert who knows what he's talking about.

10/10