1/ I have some numbers and insights re #coronavirus/#covid19 I've been working through that I honestly have trouble sharing. I keep starting and stopping the article I've been writing as it appears too alarmist. I'm an optimist and I genuinely feel we'll get through this.
2/ But the numbers don't lie. That's what I love about being an engineer... and also what I hate. We like systems. And ultimately, we gravitate toward the hard data that gives us real perspective under the hood - even if we are working with incomplete information.
3/ What's ahead with this pandemic is going to be substantial and something we'll pull through. But there's going to be very real costs and a lot of uncertainty throughout. In all the realistic scenarios I'm working through, I can't come up with a rosy one that doesn't.
4/ Just four weeks ago I was quite dismissive of this virus and -- like many -- kept comparing it to the flu in absolute numbers to illustrate the overreaction I believed this to be. I feel quite differently now. And if I'm being honest, I'm afraid to share all the reasons why.
5/ Again, and with emphasis, I'm an optimist. I think whatever hardships are ahead, they will be met with new stories of heroism and acts of kindness we only see in moments like these. I likewise think we'll seen incredible innovation to help us resolve this (and already have)
6/ But like any good friend who knows it's their job to tell you the things you need to know but don't want to hear, I need to say it.
This thing is for real.
This thing is for real.
