@SalsaPrice @NolteNC Fauci's written estimates are "a case fatality rate between 0.1 and 1 percent." 480,000 *deaths* by the end of the year is mathematically **very** suspect, although he's at least backed down from 480,000 deaths in the next two months, which is what it was a week ago.
@SalsaPrice @NolteNC 480,000 deaths from 38 today means lg(480,000-38) ~ 19 doublings, unconstrained by the end of the year. Nowhere, not even Hubei, has sustained doublings of deaths at that rate.
@SalsaPrice @NolteNC 150 million cases — or roughly one of every two Americans — means lg(150,000,000-1323) 27 doublings. Two points: that's a continued doubling every 13 days. In other words the assumption is that is will continue exponentially and unchecked for 290 days.
@SalsaPrice @NolteNC Now observe: that's 27 doublings in cases but only 18 in fatalities. Either the fatality rate is going down a LOT — down to 0.0032 from 0.034 — or those numbers aren't self-consistent.
@SalsaPrice @NolteNC But there's a regular old math problem here: infections don't actually grow exponentially; they grow as a logistic equation. They CAN'T continue to grow exponentially because you run out of new bodies to infect.
@SalsaPrice @NolteNC 3brown1blue has a great video on this:
@SalsaPrice @NolteNC The TL;DR is that those numbers can't be justified mathematically.
It looks to me like they can only be justified in two ways:
1) by ignorance
2) by political expedience
It looks to me like they can only be justified in two ways:
1) by ignorance
2) by political expedience
@SalsaPrice @NolteNC @threadreaderapp unroll
