The last few days of price action have not changed my outlook on BTC at all. This was a shock response to a global black swan in a shaky, consolidating market that is heading into a supply shock even (halvening) which is still bullish, from a supply demand perspective.
/2
/2
I started my day off by reviewing the chats that I frequent to gather an impression of the current "sentiment".
I'm seeing a lot of good signs.
- Capitulation
- Fear
- Questioning everything they ever thought they knew about crypto
- Selling now to "wait for lower prices"
/3
I'm seeing a lot of good signs.
- Capitulation
- Fear
- Questioning everything they ever thought they knew about crypto
- Selling now to "wait for lower prices"
/3
- Bears screaming I told you so and we're now going to $2200, $1800, $1000, $800 etc.
- Hyperwave theory left right and centre
- It's not just another fear proxy dump!! This time it's different!
/4
- Hyperwave theory left right and centre
- It's not just another fear proxy dump!! This time it's different!
/4
This is like the euphoria we see at the top of a move on the bull side, seeing all that same energy but inversed.
/5
/5
The last time a sentiment scan came back with these results that I can think of:
- BCH fork in Summer 2017 - "The Bitcoin Blockchain may break, it may never come back on, you may lose all your bitcoin, SELL!" This time it's seriously different! Everything could go down!
/6
- BCH fork in Summer 2017 - "The Bitcoin Blockchain may break, it may never come back on, you may lose all your bitcoin, SELL!" This time it's seriously different! Everything could go down!
/6
- China Ban in Sept 2017 - "Chinese exchanges are going to be shutdown! Miners are going to get shutdown and go out of business! This time it's different!"
/7
/7
- Operation DragonSlayer Nov. 2017 - Whales are plotting to overthrow the bitcoin network and miners are all going to switch to BCH! BCH is going to be the real bitcoin! It's going to flip, get out while you can! Bitcoin is going to $0! Told you so! This time it's different!
/8
/8
- Tether FUD, January 2018 - "The whole market is propped up on USDT, it's going to collapse, they don't have any reserves! This time it's different!"
/9
/9
- Tether FUD, April 2019 - The NY Attorney General is going to take down Tether! They don't have 100% reserves, their funds have been frozen! This dump only last a day and for $500 but still, deserves a slot
/10
/10
Many of those incidences occurred in the midst of a bull market. Each time, they corrected fairly quickly, and business continued on as usual.
/11
/11
I surely don't know what will happen this weekend, through march or the rest of this year for that matter. But am I ready to say "this time it's different"? I know... IT IS DIFFERENT, right?
/12
/12
Bitcoin has never lived through a recession, we could be at the beginning of a serious market crash, the Fed may stop pumping money into the markets (they announced 1.5T this week), Everyone could dieeeeee!
/13
/13
No. All things considered, nothing is different. This is just the same old story coloured with a different brush. "Sell your bitcoin to me cheap, because it may never go up again". That's the story. It's the same one that's been told since the beginning of bitcoin.
/14
/14
I won't be exiting this market. I'll keep on keeping on with my trading plan. I'll buy the blood. I'll get long while the public is still waiting out the results of their COVID-19 test.
/15
/15
When the Virus spread slows down, and the dust settles, business gets back to normal (and it will), I'll look back at this chart and have one more story to tell about that time that "it was different".
/16
/16
