In thinking about what is happening now, it is useful to read Mauboussin talk about complexity here: hbr.org/2011/09/embrac… As an example, economy is genuinely complex and not just complicated. There are second and higher order effects of just about everything in an economy.
"The only certainty is there is no certainty. With uncertainty, the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined, while with risk we know what that distribution looks like. [The effects of COVID-19 are] uncertain; roulette is risky…” What we know is we often can't know. 
"Complex adaptive systems effectively obscure cause and effect. You can’t make predictions in any but the broadest and vaguest terms.”… “complexity doesn’t lend itself to tidy mathematics in the way that some traditional, linear financial models do.” Michael Mauboussin
