1/ Lux memo—shared prior (privately) with our LPs
-‘Four Flows’ that matter (virus, information, people, capital)
-Observations are better than predictions
-Observe what others are observing
-Illiqudity creating RISKS + OPPORTUNITIES
-Especially for overallocated GPs + LPs
-‘Four Flows’ that matter (virus, information, people, capital)
-Observations are better than predictions
-Observe what others are observing
-Illiqudity creating RISKS + OPPORTUNITIES
-Especially for overallocated GPs + LPs
2/ ...the vector that gives the virus velocity is PEOPLE.
3/...illiquidity of human capital
4/...flow of information + misinformation—and our propensity as primates to see patterns when there are none—and as social primates to look to eachother for clues of what to do.
The case of the curious corner.
The case of the curious corner.
5/ Two years ago we proffered rates may fall when all others expected Fed tightening. Today we proffer the opposite: not because of Fed tightening—but IN SPITE of their loosening—as debt holders sell for liquidity, causing yield spikes
6/ Failure comes from a failure to imagine failure.
More things can happen than will.
“Yale & Yule”— a metaphor for the coveted but not copyable endowment model and the propensity for the rich to get richer...
More things can happen than will.
“Yale & Yule”— a metaphor for the coveted but not copyable endowment model and the propensity for the rich to get richer...
7/ ...on Diversity Breakdowns.
The Millenium Bridge and independent moves that become unintentionally coordinated lock-step movements—causing booms + busts.
Why consolidation in asset managers + AUM has happened in mutual funds, HF, PE...and soon VC
The Millenium Bridge and independent moves that become unintentionally coordinated lock-step movements—causing booms + busts.
Why consolidation in asset managers + AUM has happened in mutual funds, HF, PE...and soon VC
8/... on the “Minnows and Megas”
the coming disappearance of 50% of the hundreds of recently formed smaller <$100M funds—and the persistence of larger ‘platforms’—albeit with altered LP composition...
the coming disappearance of 50% of the hundreds of recently formed smaller <$100M funds—and the persistence of larger ‘platforms’—albeit with altered LP composition...
9/ A few tactical things Lux has watched (Cash management, Talent Management, Supply Chains, Valuations + Special Situations)...
10/ Illiquidity—will create demand for liquidity which creates lower valuations + higher future expected returns (especially direct ‘strategic’ corporate VC + ‘growth’ funds/‘growth’ companies who ‘grew’ on very low cost capital equity that becomes...not so low cost)
