Thread by @BogochIsaac

1/5

Egypt...

Several questions about the burden of #COVID19 in Egypt as they have exported multiple cases over the past few weeks.

This is a collaborative process with @AshTuite @DFisman and others.

We estimate the case number at 19,310 cases (95% CI: 6,270 - 45,070 cases).

2/5

We try account for several groups getting infected together ("linked" cases), and count them as 1 exported, rather than as several exported cases.

I will find a way to post our whole manuscript to twitter.

3/5

Take home points:

Egypt likely has significantly more #COVID19 cases than reported and is likely exporting cases globally.

Improved surveillance and public health strategies may demonstrate the true burden of #COVID19 and facilitate management.

4/5
***Values may be closer to the lower end of the confidence intervals (~6000 cases) as several Nile tour operators have recently been diagnosed with #COVID19 - so "these values may overestimate the burden in Egypt if tourists are preferentially affected and exporting cases."

5/5
Normally I would post a pre-print but for some odd reason, our short manuscript was rejected from a pre-print site. Data has been submitted to WHO, and article submitted to a a medical journal

Posting to twitter because, uh...a pre-print site rejected our data? Harsh.

Adding a 6th frame here given some abrasive responses:

-Many didn't read the thread (especially tweet #4/5), we think it is an overestimate and perhaps closer to 6000

-We are all in this together and send our love and support to Egypt

-Wishing everyone health and wellness.

For those who want to read our methods, please see the following 4 frames (frames A - D)

A.

Frame B

Frame C

Frame D

One last point - the manuscript just passed the peer review process and is accepted to the Lancet Infectious Diseases journal.