Thread by @BogochIsaac

1.
What is the burden of #COVID19 in Iran?

We looked at this, and at how this may be transmitted through air travel locally and more broadly given that flight restrictions were only recently imposed.

This is a pre-print (not peer reviewed):

bit.ly/2VlgpDB

2. "We estimated that 18,300...COVID-19 cases would have had to occur in Iran, assuming an outbreak duration of 1.5
months in the country, in order to observe these three internationally exported cases reported at the time of writing."

Range: 3770 – 53,470

@AshTuite @DFisman

3.
Where could #COVID19 spread to next via commercial air travel?

Lot's of places (see table at the end), but Turkey, Iraq, and UAE are high on the list.

4.

Adding a 4th point to this thread a bit late:

Let's be civil.

People are getting sick.