Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID-19 March 15Prep update:

Every day brings vital new developments and I talked to leading epidemiologists, public health experts about what is happening & coming & what we should be doing. I learned a bunch. 1/

We can expect the virus to hit at different times in different cities just like in Italy. Washington, northern CA, Boston, NYC are all past tipping points where cases will grow dramatically.

Other cities are far from there, possibly months away. 2/

The key turning point in a city? When the number of passed passed through the community starts increasing. Once that happens, that community is on a path. The pace and “shape” of that path will matter a lot. 3/

Here’s some of the toughest news I’ve been digesting, once the case load surpasses the relatively meager supply of vents, ICU beds, and personnel, there are very very limited ways to improve that reality. 4/

And for health care workers, that means protective gear too. Some suppliers of masks report that it would take 20 years to fulfill all the orders. And health care workers aren’t going to be comfortable working without protective masks & gloves. 5/

The “shape” of the curve— and if you’re looking for good news— is completely in our control. The rate of growth in community cases is directly related to how severe the social distancing measures we take. #MoveStPatsDayToOctober 6/

In other words, give your health care workforce a fighting chance by staying away from people— particularly once the community case load begins to rise.

(I had one too many “passed” in a prior tweet. Won’t be my last mistake.) 7/

I learned about an apparently well know phenomenon in epidemics today. That if people prepare for the worst too early— and then the worst doesn’t come for more than 2 weeks— people stop preparing, begin to drop their guard, lose trust, and then don’t respond when it comes.7/

The implication seems to be pay very very close attention to the local situation, when community-transmitted case begin to rise, and then increase social isolation significantly. 9/

That brings me to another fact I learned today. Which is how to track the number of cases. To their credit, the WH has been working to grow capacity of reagents & machines to measure results. That capacity should grow significantly in the next week. Good. But...10/

I talked to a state just now that told me they will ramp testing this week— good. But then expect to be nearly out of supply and back to a crawl. Don’t know if this is true in other states.

But this side we weren’t on war time footing and defunded all our prep.11/

Two implications: 1) we will be flying blind for the most part.
2) The standard protocol will be this:

-Have a fever? Assume you have the virus.
-Can’t breath? Go to the ER.

And don’t forget, you can be w/out symptoms for a while & still have it so be careful. /12

I know everybody’s lives are crazy disrupted. I know people feel anxious & powerless. People want to know what to do, what’s too much, and that there are no easy answers.

So I pulled together with 14 others— they are deeply respected health care experts. Tonight we will.../13

Tonight we will be releasing an open letter to the public that will be published as an OpEd in @USATODAY and then sent to 50 governors & 50 mayors with our best recommendations for individuals, state & local policymakers & health care workers.
/14

It is short, intended for be simple, neither to scare you or calm you, just inform you. It is not about blame & has no politics. The 15 signers have no monopoly on advice but can be considered one highly credible source.

It will support the #StayHome movement. /15

We think that focus of #StayHome (alternatively #StayTheFHome) is our best hope & a vital message many people aren’t really getting.

It’s not about your health. It’s about everyone’s. /15

I will add to this thread and post on this account when the OpEd is released and continue to say what I’m seeing & hearing. The next week will be filled up.

Stay connected. Just not too close. /end

Here it is:
#StayHome

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1239339633537933315?s=21

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1239339633537933315