Thread by @ASlavitt

NEW: Trump claims the virus will be gone by July or August.

I talked to a number of people to see what they thought. I would like to believe what he said was true, but I highly doubt it. 1/

The virus spread will be entirely unpredictable and will roll through different cities at different time. Denver (as far as I know) has no cases. It may be May or June when it gets there if they selfed-isolate & close off city to city travel.

But more importantly...2/

Remember the “flatten the curve?” The goal we have all heard is to lengthen NOT shorten the length of the virus. We don’t want it to be over by summer.

(By the way, there are cases in Denver. But my point is the same. This will roll through the country.) 3/

Further, many epidemiologists believe it could emerge again in the Fall. Remember there are other countries and hemispheres. 4/

Very smart people explained to me that the virus begins to gradually die when the number of average people infected x the herd immunity is less than one.

Don’t worry I will explain. 5/

I’m in the chair to go on @11thHour on @MSNBC in 10 minutes so I may have to pause. Please watch!

If 60% of the people get the virus AND WE DO A BETTER JOB SOCIALLY ISOLATING so we only infect 1.6 people instead of 2.3, then we are going to see the virus decline.

And estimates are that 20-60% of us will eventually get it. Bottom line it will be here for longer. BUT 7/

Economists briefings say that the economy can handle about 1-2 months of no action, but beyond that we could move into a Depression.

So Trump, inclined to be rosy anyway, probably can’t say much more than that.

I hope this helps. Please #StayHome.