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Media reporting Imperial College have redone the maths. Assumptions not correct. UK plan to tackle #covidー19 is in disarray. Suppression now required for 12-18 months in the hope of a vaccine. 250k deaths the best case scenario. Human and economic impact profound. Jesus wept.
“Situation is much more serious than anticipated. Demand on ICU twice as much as thought”.
Concluded that epidemic suppression through prolonged isolation would halve the death rate
This is the reason for the sudden ramping up of social distancing measures today
My comment... the experiment we’ve been subjected to this past couple of weeks is utterly disgraceful.
Report here : imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
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Hazel Hayes
@TheHazelHayes
Here’s the thing. Years and years of fake news and sensationalist journalism and people panicking over dumb shit on Twitter made me think everyone was overreacting about Coronavirus and that I just needed to be cautious and sensible when going out. Unfortunately, I was wrong.
Living in the UK, where nothing was being done about it, reinforced my belief that it wasn’t a big deal. But I’ve since remembered that the UK government are absolute idiots, so that argument doesn’t work anymore. I mean we’re talking about Boris fucking Johnson here.
Also, as someone with anxiety, I have to filter the news a little bit, and take it in small doses and with a large pinch of salt. So I don’t have a ton of news apps on my phone and wasn’t seeing the full extent of the crisis elsewhere. However, I was quietly keeping an eye on it.
Read 18 tweets
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Matteo Villa
@emmevilla
🦠🇮🇹 Molte persone si sono convinte che #Covid-19 uccida il 7% di chi si ammala.
Altre sostengono che in realtà muoiano in pochissimi, meno dell’influenza.

Com’è possibile?
E chi ha ragione?

Oggi vi parlo di un iceberg, che però forse è una piramide.
Nel corso di un’epidemia non sappiamo esattamente chi si sia infettato. Sì, qualcuno può presentare sintomi più evidenti. Ma molti altri, magari, no.
Come facciamo a sapere che abbiano #COVIDー19? Facciamo test!

I casi confermati dai test sono un sottoinsieme dei contagi totali.
(En passant, non è esattamente così. Va più come rappresentato da @RosaTron qualche giorno fa.
Il numero dei deceduti non si sovrappone in maniera perfetta a quello delle persone testate: ci sarà sempre qualcuno, contagiato, che muore senza aver fatto il tampone.)
Read 24 tweets
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François JAULIN
@Francois_JAULIN
Partage de simulations de modèles de diffusion qui illustrent bien problème & solution du #COVIDー19 .

1/5 : #diffusion libre - profil #exponentiel - avec #population en circulation libre & contact aléatoire non contrôlé, comme en #France avant jeudi 12/3.

Src @washingtonpost
2/5 : modèle de diffusion avec création de zone de #confinement et tentative de #quarantaine forcée, comme en #Chine (Hubei).
En pratique, impossible d'isoler (à part sur un bateau) la population #COVIDー19 de la #population saine. La zone finit par devenir poreuse.
Src Wshgtpost
3/5 (#solution) : modèle de diffusion avec #SocialDistancing ou #DistanciationSociale pour 3/4 de la population et circulation libre d'un quart de la population.
Deux simulations dans la vidéo suivante qui montrent des charges de contamination plutôt contrôlées.
#COVIDー19
Read 7 tweets
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Nick Boisvert
@nickjboisvert
A new case of #COVIDー19 in Toronto is conncted to a man who recently travelled from Las Vegas.
Medical officer of health Dr. Eileen de Villa says the man travelled on Toronto public transit after developing symtoms from March 2-4.
The man travelled between Bathurst and Islington Stations, de Villa says.
Says risk to public remains low.
"This information is being provided out of an abbubndance of caution."
The man also travelled on the 108N Mississauga MyWay bus. All travel took place shortly before 9 a.m. March 2,3 and 4.
Read 10 tweets
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Well Lima.
@drwell
Oi gente, confirmou o primeiro caso de Covid-19 no Brasil e esta é uma Thread do bem.
Lave bem as mãos com sabão. Tem várias imagens ensinando. Pasme mas na Faculdade de Medicina levamos tão a sério que temos prova passo a passo.
Mas por que todo este cuidado? Diariamente negligenciamos algumas partes da mão e elas são o principal veículo de infecção.
Read 17 tweets
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DocRock1007 🇺🇸
@DocRock1007
...to San Francisco. apnews.com/cc77e92054c495…
2. Roads in and out of #Wuhan (even small side roads) being barricaded with piles of dirt/rocks to block all traffic in or out.
3. "Ye shall not eat any thing with the blood: neither shall ye use enchantment, nor observe times. Ye shall not .. print any marks upon you: I am the LORD. Do not prostitute thy daughter, to cause her to be a whore; lest the land fall to whoredom"..."apnews.com/d59f43a911996a…
Read 279 tweets

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#SocialNetworks #FreeOlaBini #SpyVsSpy #coronavirusitalla #COVIDー19 #diffusion #HongKongProstests #HongKongProtests #Erdogan #FoxNews #Brennan #ProtectJulian #Hanningan #Clapper #G20 #WeStandWithJulianAssange #nCoV19 #Georgia #TrueJournalists #researching #OlaBini #Schengen #journalism #JulianAssange #5Eyes

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