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It may not be "over" but drag on for a long time and cove in waves.

What's needed is a vaccine.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…

"The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention ... will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available ... given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed."
If Imperial College is right the cost of containing the disease will be ruinous until the Cavalry comes riding over the hill.If Imperial College is right the cost of containing the disease will be ruinous until the Cavalry comes riding over the hill.
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
As the virus took hold in Wuhan earlier this year, staff from the Chinese government-backed global property giant Greenland Group were instructed to put their normal work on hold and source bulk supplies of essential medical items to ship back to China.

smh.com.au/national/chine…
A whistleblower from the company has told the Herald it was a worldwide Greenland effort - and the Sydney office was no different, sourcing bulk supplies of surgical masks, thermometers, antibacterial wipes, hand sanitisers, gloves and Panadol for shipping.
"The company even posted its efforts of packing pallets in the company’s Sydney headquarters on social media."
Read 6 tweets
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
Nothing for the living ...

interaksyon.com/politics-issue…
Or the dead.

newsinfo.inquirer.net/1247337/manila…
How long can the poor stand not earning living money, crammed in their teeming millions into their little shacks with no option but sicken in place? A lot of people live hand to mouth, meal to meal.
Read 5 tweets
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
"Sustainable cities must be compact and high-density." George Monbiot.

theguardian.com/environment/ge…
"For at least a century, governments have tried to urbanise their nations. Communist states sought to drag people out of what Marx and Engels called their 'rural idiocy'."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_pla…
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Related threads

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Taal Levi
@taaltree
Over the past two days we've covered math of exponential growth and epidemics. Today we'll talk about the new Imperial College of London report "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand"

The report is based on an individual-based model published in 2005 and 2006 papers in Nature. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in SE Asia" and "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic"

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
It's very hard to track down the methods because the report links to the 2006 paper with methods in the supporting information, which itself links to the supporting information of the 2005 paper. The model incorporates an incredible amount of detail. Such as...
Read 21 tweets
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Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
➡️ THIS IS HOW WE WILL DEFEAT #COVID19... but it’s not just that simple. We will need to go thru a lot to win against the pandemic...
2) so you likely have all seen a “flatten the curve” figure like this below. The concept is simple but it’s not that easy to achieve - the future doesn’t say how much and how long containment and mitigation interventions have to stay in place. #COVID19
3) However, what it takes to get under the #COVID19 curve is actually quite draconian measures of not just social distancing but also incl 📍household quarantine📍(shelter in place)- and the footnote says... ➡️➡️➡️for 5 months. And omitted before is the *autumn resurgence* issue:
Read 15 tweets
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Amanda Makulec MPH
@abmakulec
I keep hearing "When will this be over?" A new paper from Imperial College in London models the effect of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (like social distancing) on #COVID2019 based on the available data for Great Britain and the US. /thread imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
These are estimates and models based on the application of a microsimulation used in pandemic preparedness exercises. We still have much uncertainty in the case data in the US (we need more tests!), but this is a team of researchers who can help us understand what *could* happen.
The authors compare mitigation (slowing but not stopping epidemic spread to reduce peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk) and suppression (aiming to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels & maintaining that situation indefinitely).
Read 18 tweets
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Robin Hanson
@robinhanson
"major challenge of suppression is that… intensive intervention package … need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed" imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
Yes, as I've said, containment is infeasible unless we are willing to impose & maintain for years policies that are far more Draconian than the West has considered in a very long time.
"In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, … we would predict approximately 510K deaths in GB & 2.2M in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality"
Read 6 tweets
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Campaign
@realnews1234
This all started because the #MetPolice & #LBRUT couldn't do their day jobs properly & decided to take the law into their own hands. It started as a small cover up 12 years ago but has turned into British State Persecution.

#Skynews #BBCNews #DailyMail #Guardian #Euronews
My company was raided. It should have been a straightforward matter. But the #MetPolice & #LBRUT forgot to seize my computer & came back to do a 2nd raid. The search warrant didn't permit a second entry, however, #LBRUT entered unlawfully

#Guardian #Telegraph #DailyMail #GMB #UK
Complaints were then made to my MP #VinceCable. He liaised with the #Metpolice & #LBRUT. And then weeks later, the search warrant was completely changed & was passed off as the search warrant executed on the day of the raids.

#DailyPolitics #Libdems #Conservatives #labour #bbcdp
Read 147 tweets
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Just Live With It
@bbc_thismorning
This all started because the #MetPolice & #LBRUT couldn't do their jobs properly & then decided to take the law into their own hands. The result of this decision has led to events stranger than fiction

#BBCNews #Skynews #Itvnews #Channel4News #ThisMorning #TheresaMay #UKGov #LBC
My company was raided. It should have been a straightforward matter. But the #MetPolice & #LBRUT forgot to seize my computer & came back to do a 2nd raid. The search warrant didn't permit a second entry, however, #LBRUT entered unlawfully

#Guardian #Telegraph #DailyMail #GMB #UK
Complaints were then made to my MP #VinceCable. He liaised with the #Metpolice & #LBRUT. And then weeks later, the search warrant was completely changed & was passed off as the search warrant executed on the day of the raids.

#DailyPolitics #Libdems #Conservatives #labour #bbcdp
Read 145 tweets

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