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OK, one more random late-night thought. I see a lot of cities defining hotels as not being essential businesses when they shut down, and I wonder if that's wise. It's not hard to imagine cases where allowing hotels to remain open enhances safety.
Some obvious ones:
1) A traveler gets stuck because of travel restrictions and/or because traveling back home may not be super safe
2) One member of a household needs to self-quarantine & others would prefer to stay at a hotel
3) Domestic abuse
4) Some people live in hotels
5) Someone away from home learns that they need to self-quarantine while in the midst of travel. No idea what's supposed to happen here if hotels aren't open. (A hotel is a lot better than having them on a plane.)
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Because variation in testing makes it hard to know *exactly* what is happening, it's important to account for one's priors, and IMO those priors should be that there has been a gradual slowdown in new cases as more places have implemented social distancing.
To be more precise, my priors are that as of a week or two ago (that's what we're seeing given the lag in the data) there would have been enough social distancing in place to slow but not reverse the spread. (Say, an R0 of ~1.1-1.6). The data seems consistent with that.
Of course, that's a national average. Maybe, as of 10 days ago, R0 was 2.1 in Florida, 0.9 in NYC and 0.7 in the SF Bay. The data seems consistent with that. But it's hard to anchor to anything when so many cases are undetected, so it could also be consistent with other theories.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
An expert survey conducted ~2 weeks ago forecasted 200K deaths in the U.S., although with a *very* wide range of possibilities. Revised slightly upward to 246K this week. But Dr. Fauci's estimate of 100K+ deaths is broadly in line with the consensus.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/exper…
**HOWEVER**: We are not just inert objects here, and the choices we make could make a huge difference, as the experts think anywhere from around 36K to 1.1m deaths is highly plausible. That's 30-fold difference in possible outcomes.
Important to note that what's happened *so far* is largely baked in based on (bad) choices the U.S. made a week to a month ago, or longer. The data lags our actions to an extent that folks don't seem to fully appreciate. But making better choices *now* *will* pay dividends later.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
There are more detected coronavirus cases right now in blue states. But they're increasing faster in red states.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c…
9 of the 10 states to report the biggest % increases over the past three days were states Trump won.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c…
Also, blue states are doing more testing, so the gap in how many cases there *actually* are may be smaller than it appears.
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Rohit Ramchandani
@DrRramchandani
Growth rate is key during a disease outbreak. The rate of growth in the the total confirmed #cases in #Canada seems to be showing signs of slowing and pulling away from the continued steep trend line seen, for example, in the United States (Green). #COVID19 #coronavirus 1/25
This is a +ve sign, but still very early to tell, esp. with an est. 1M+ #Canadians having just returned from travel, and #COVID-19 #testing only targeting >severe cases (due to rationing & backlog in lab testing), we don’t have a good grasp on the level of community spread. 2/25
The number of total cases is what we want to know, but the true number of these is not known. Not by us epidemiologists, nor by any other research, governmental or reporting institution. 3/25
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Bill Hanage
@BillHanage
One of the late night threads. expect people will respond in wildly different ways to this, depending on where they are and how aware they are of the pandemic threat but... (deep breath, here goes) 1/n
This is a pandemic unlike any within living memory. If you are lucky enough to be spared so far, get ready. It will be coming to town so start #socialdistancing. Don’t sit down, get your coffee to go and leave large tips 2/n
If cases are taking off, the experience of Wuhan suggests they will not peak for at least a month. Maybe longer here. This is more serious than you can imagine. It might not feel like it is now, but it will 3/n
Read 9 tweets
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Kyle
@HNIJohnMiller
Another random late night thought: I sincerely doubt Trump will go to war with China. Not because it would be destructive, it wouldn’t be, China doesn’t hold a fucking candle to our military and their island bases are sitting ducks. B/c he’s going to exhaust every option first.
I instead see a situation in which as human rights abuses escalate Trump will use that to ratchet up the pressure on Xi in Beijing, and use the protests as a casus belli to apply the sanctions and such he couldn’t use in trade deals.
Remember, he has a standing executive order making it easy for the treasury to sanction abusers of human rights. He could cut off massive parts of Beijing’s elites from the financial world. China is also suffering bank runs right now in major banks.
Read 6 tweets
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💧Queen Victoria
@Vic_Rollison
Ok, one more thread and then I’m going back to work marking papers. There are specific reasons why journos don’t tend to criticise other journos from competitor organisations. A thread👇🏻
The first reason is there does seem to be a policy of professional collegiality, or a professional code if you like. Journalists back each other in almost all cases and defend against criticism, viewing themselves as an ‘us’ against the non-journalist ‘them’.
This means that you don’t read about Murdoch bias and propagandising, and the impact this has on media reputation generally in other outlets. That’s not to say some journalists don’t criticise Murdoch - some do. But on the whole, this story is not a mainstream news story.
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🌟Suzanne: Families Belong Together 🇺🇸
@SuzanneWinland
🌟🇺🇸 ONE MORE DAY. 🇺🇸🌟

An artist's perspective. Beginning 8 Nov 2016 many of us were stunned as our Democracy seemed to be turned upside down by tumultuous events surrounding the election. Like many, I was numbed & disoriented by the apparent UNBELIEVABILITY of the outcome.1/x
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Moshe Hoffman
@Moshe_Hoffman
Ok this example is from a while ago (when trump was first tying to ban Trans from the military)

But it illustrates an important point imo: the values and logic we ascribe to don’t really drive our political stances, but vice versa.
Ie: Notice that there r many values we can call upon to make a political argument. Equality. Meritocracy. For instance. Which do we call upon, often depends on which political stance is desired by us and our coalition.
This illustrates a rather distinct role for logic and arguments that what is typically posited. It isn’t (for the most part*) that we get our political stance from our values.

It’s that we choose which values to use in our arguments, based on the stance
Read 38 tweets

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