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Another random late night thought: I sincerely doubt Trump will go to war with China. Not because it would be destructive, it wouldn’t be, China doesn’t hold a fucking candle to our military and their island bases are sitting ducks. B/c he’s going to exhaust every option first.
I instead see a situation in which as human rights abuses escalate Trump will use that to ratchet up the pressure on Xi in Beijing, and use the protests as a casus belli to apply the sanctions and such he couldn’t use in trade deals.
Remember, he has a standing executive order making it easy for the treasury to sanction abusers of human rights. He could cut off massive parts of Beijing’s elites from the financial world. China is also suffering bank runs right now in major banks.
Trump’s Hong Kong tweets are weaponized uncertainty.
In a market, uncertainty is the black death. Uncertainty invariably drives markets down, as investors on the whole mitigate risk from uncertainty by withdrawing their money causing a recession in the market.
In a market, uncertainty is the black death. Uncertainty invariably drives markets down, as investors on the whole mitigate risk from uncertainty by withdrawing their money causing a recession in the market.
His most recent tweets have created uncertainty around if Trump will intervene. He is causing a panic and potential recession just by the RISK of him acting, all without ever having to say ‘this is how we will react if something happens.’
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you beat China without firing a shot.
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