Thread by @djc795

Although Italy had its worst day to date (6557 new cases, 793 deaths), in the "silver lining" department, it’s clear that COVID-19 cases and deaths are not growing exponentially in Italy anymore.

I made a simple spreadsheet using data from worldometers.info/coronavirus/co… to track the total number of cumulative and incident cases and deaths over the last 2 weeks (since 3/8).

If you look at the last column, which shows the “5-day moving average” you can see clearly that the relative daily increase is continuing to decrease. (3/n)

So even though the incident cases and deaths continue to increase, they are not growing exponentially. And this is what “flattening the curve” actually looks like.

Had the curve not flattened and the growth remained exponential at 25%/day (the rate on 3/8), Italy would already be at 134,000 cases and 6,600 deaths with no end in sight.

Sorry for erasing a couple of tweets-- I managed to break the thread and was trying to recreate it. I hope it's all together now.

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