Think about history for a moment. Think about all the times the worst case has happened. Now think about the 99.9% of the times that the worst case didn't happen. We tend to study the worst case in history not the times it doesn't occur. This creates a false bias in our minds.
We also tend to promote the worst case happening in our movies, books and video games. This also creates a false bias in our minds. In other words, through our education system and entertainment complex we have become conditioned to think in worst case scenarios.
When we search data and events we have a confirmation bias to think in worst case terms. Sure the worst case happens sometimes but it's not very often. That's why we name things like a 500-year flood. This doesn't mean that two 500-year floods can't happen back to back. It means
on average a flood of that magnitude happens once every 500-years. Yellowstone might blow at any minute but on avg it only does so once every 250,000 years. But due to our conditioning every time Yellowstone rumbles we automatically think this time it's going to blow even though
the chance of that happening is very, very, very slim. These examples are natural events that we have little control over. When it's something humans have control over, the chances of a worst case happening are even lower because humans have intelligence and tend to step in
..to stop the worst case. For instance the chance of something like the Titanic happening again is there but it's very, very slim because lessons were learned, steps were taken, polices were put in place, safety measures were adopted.
So yeah, the chance is still there but it's been reduced to a small fraction of what it was before. The "perfect storm" in human controlled events happens but it doesn't happen very often and when humans are actively trying to stop that "perfect storm", it happens even less.
All this tells me that betting on the worst case happening is a sucker's bet. Sure, you may have that longshot finish first but if all you do is bet on the longshots you quickly go broke. It's hard to go against our conditioning but you will be much less stressful if you do.
