HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE REALLY DYING IN ITALY?
Are people dying for the covid, or with the covid?
Is it comparable to a flu?
In Dalmine, 70 people died between March 1st and 21st (2 of which officially with coronavirus) vs 18 in the same period last year.
(thread, 1/N)
Are people dying for the covid, or with the covid?
Is it comparable to a flu?
In Dalmine, 70 people died between March 1st and 21st (2 of which officially with coronavirus) vs 18 in the same period last year.
(thread, 1/N)
1B/ Note: I reposted this thread as in the original I made a typo in the numbers for the city of Dalmine.
2/ I will present more similar examples and cite the sources below. First, let me explain what this is about.
On one hand, most people dying from the coronavirus had comorbidities. This made some people say they died *with* the virus instead of *for* the virus.
On one hand, most people dying from the coronavirus had comorbidities. This made some people say they died *with* the virus instead of *for* the virus.
3/ On the other hand, when hospitals are overwhelmed because of the coronavirus, mortality for all other causes of death soars, as people who in normal times would get great medical assistance now can only get partial attention.
4/ Moreover, italian doctors and mayors have been warning since days that there might be people dying in their home for the virus who never show up in statistics because, for many reasons, couldn't or didn't want to get tested.
5/ How can we know which effect prevails? Is the net effect of the coronavirus small or big? Are people dying with or for the virus?
The easiest way to know, and perhaps the best one, is to compare March deaths in 2020 vs March deaths in 2019 over the same geographical area.
The easiest way to know, and perhaps the best one, is to compare March deaths in 2020 vs March deaths in 2019 over the same geographical area.
6/ Unfortunately, I couldn't find any good source for Bergamo data or for Lombardy data. However, these articles ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergam… and google.com/search?q=Scanz… provided data given by mayors and other officials of towns around Bergamo.
Let's see what they say.
Let's see what they say.
7/ Some data refers to the period 1st of March 2020 - 21st of March 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, and some data refers to 27th of Feb - 21st of March.
The important is: given a city, periods of equal length are compared. Please refer to the article for full details.
The important is: given a city, periods of equal length are compared. Please refer to the article for full details.
8/ Of course, March 2020 might have been a bad flu year compared to March 2019 even if the coronavirus outbreak didn't take place. However, the multiples you'll see make me quite confident that we can say that the coronavirus was responsible for a significant number of deaths.
9/ For example, 70 people died in about the first 3 weeks of March in Dalmine vs 18 last year. 175-200 people die each year in Dalmine.
70 people would be one third of the yearly deaths, and that's in about three weeks only.
70 people would be one third of the yearly deaths, and that's in about three weeks only.
10/ "Last year [in my city, between the 1st and 22nd of March] we had 14 deaths. This year, between 110 and 120"- The mayor of Nembro
The mayor of Scanzorosciate: this year we got 6x as last year [in the same period]
In Caravaggio 50 this year (2 confirmed covid) vs 6 last year
The mayor of Scanzorosciate: this year we got 6x as last year [in the same period]
In Caravaggio 50 this year (2 confirmed covid) vs 6 last year
11/ The mayor of Bergamo: "for each COVID death there are 3 who die at home of pneumonia without a test".
open.online/2020/03/22/cor…
open.online/2020/03/22/cor…
12/ In Stezzano, 40 people died in March so far (all with symptoms compatible with coronavirus) vs 10 in the same period last year.
In Selvino, 20 people died over the last two weeks. Before that, it took one and a half year to get the same amount of deaths.
In Selvino, 20 people died over the last two weeks. Before that, it took one and a half year to get the same amount of deaths.
13/ For those wondering "could it be a bad flu season?", please check the table below, showing the number of deaths in Dalmine (the column with header "decessi")
It's around 200 per year, 160-215 I'd say
They just had 70 deaths in about 3 weeks
Source tuttitalia.it/lombardia/27-d…
It's around 200 per year, 160-215 I'd say
They just had 70 deaths in about 3 weeks
Source tuttitalia.it/lombardia/27-d…
14/ I made this thread in long-form version, to be shared with those who don't have Twitter:
pandemic.substack.com/p/dying-for-th…
pandemic.substack.com/p/dying-for-th…
15/ The most important chart you’ll see this week.
Deaths in Bergamo & Lodi provinces due to the coronavirus in March 2020 to date (red) are already higher than deaths in the whole of March 2019 for all causes of death (blue).
(ht @terra_mm)
Deaths in Bergamo & Lodi provinces due to the coronavirus in March 2020 to date (red) are already higher than deaths in the whole of March 2019 for all causes of death (blue).
(ht @terra_mm)
16/ The data point 👇 would go in the direction that it's not (only) that something went wrong in Lombardy, but that COVID deaths are undercounted in other areas (leading to the red bars in the previous charts to be lower)
I'm trying to collect more data
I'm trying to collect more data
17/ Some more data points:
- In Alzano (Bergamo province), 50 people died in the last week of February and in the first two weeks of March compared to 8 last year in the same period.
it.euronews.com/2020/03/16/cor…
- In Alzano (Bergamo province), 50 people died in the last week of February and in the first two weeks of March compared to 8 last year in the same period.
it.euronews.com/2020/03/16/cor…
