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19/ More cues of under-testing in Italy:

In Coccaglio (Brescia), 5 people died of COVID but 24 more died in a residence, none tested.

36 people died between the 1st & 24th March, compared to a yearly average of 75.

(ht @Franceskamarel)

giornaledibrescia.it/storie/coronav…
20/ An additional point:

Italian data shows that, yes, most people dying with the virus suffer from hypertension, but also that a person with HT and the virus is much more likely to die than one w/ only HT.

So it's deaths FROM the virus, not WITH it.

ilfoglio.it/salute/2020/03…
21/ More evidence of undercounting of deaths in Italy
(ht @Franceskamarel)

Full post with all the evidence of undercounting in Italy: pandemic.substack.com/p/dying-for-th… Image
22/ Prompted by @balajis, I summarized the findings in a table (which I will keep updated)

Below the table, a discussion (with data) of the question: what if it were a bad year of flu? (TL;DR: extremely unlikely)

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
23/ In the linked essay, a discussion of the data, of the question "what if it is a bad year only" and some limitations of the data above.

pandemic.substack.com/p/dying-for-th… Image
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More from @DellAnnaLuca see all

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Luca Dellanna
@DellAnnaLuca
SOCCER AND THE ITALIAN OUTBREAK

There is growing evidence that soccer matches have been a driver of the Italian outbreak.

(thread, 1/N)
2/ On the 19th of March, Bergamo and Valencia teams played a soccer match in Milan.

A few days later, when Italy counted less than 300 confirmed cases, 4 of these attended the football match.

Bergamo is now the hardest hit city.

35% of Valencia players later tested positive.
3/ On the 9th of February, Codogno soccer team played against Albino.

Codogno later became the first Italian quarantined city.

Albino is now the epicenter of the Valle Seriana region.

via @VittorioZinetti
Read 6 tweets
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Luca Dellanna
@DellAnnaLuca
THE LUDIC FALLACY

If a coin flips head 10 times in a row, what's the probability it flips head also on the 11th throw?

The correct answer is *more* than 50%.

(thread, 1/N)
2/ A statistics textbook would say: throws are independent, so the probabilities are always 50%.

In the real world, however there are more possibilities. Perhaps, the coin is loaded or the person throwing the coin does so in a way which results in a higher chance of heads.
3/ (The thought experiment above is taken from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Incerto).

In the real world, the right answer would be: 50% + 50% times the probability that the throw is not a "textbook throw". The result is strictly >50%.

What does this have to do with the pandemic?
Read 10 tweets
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Luca Dellanna
@DellAnnaLuca
HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE REALLY DYING IN ITALY?

Are people dying for the covid, or with the covid?
Is it comparable to a flu?

In Dalmine, 70 people died between March 1st and 21st (2 of which officially with coronavirus) vs 18 in the same period last year.

(thread, 1/N)
1B/ Note: I reposted this thread as in the original I made a typo in the numbers for the city of Dalmine.
2/ I will present more similar examples and cite the sources below. First, let me explain what this is about.

On one hand, most people dying from the coronavirus had comorbidities. This made some people say they died *with* the virus instead of *for* the virus.
Read 18 tweets

Related threads

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(((Howard Forman)))
@thehowie
Thread on #Italy w/charts updated to today(@Maryyzzhao):
They have concentrated #Covid19 outbreak in the North that has overwhelmed healthcare system. Growth in new cases can be real spread and/or better detection (testing). Italy seems to test more. 1/x
In the town of #Vò, they have successfully (it seems) contained a #Covid19 outbreak through aggressive testing (in the style of #SouthKorea). @roselouise93 2/x

newsweek.com/coronavirus-ma…
Much as in the USA, newly documented cases may be a cause for hope rather than despair. We can neither manage policy nor hope to slow spread, if we don't know who is infected. @NateSilver538 3/x

Read 7 tweets
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CLLynch
@lynchauthor
This is the kind of attitude that gets people killed.

Here is how I explained it to my nine year old:

Ebola and other plagues are usually easy to catch and stop. They are deadly, but that very deadliness makes them stand out. We spot them. We stop them.

#COVID is different.
#Covid ‘s mildness is the most dangerous aspect of it.

Many people who catch it don’t even experience symptoms.

Children, who cough on everything and never wash their hands CARRY IT WITHOUT SYMPTOMS.

When symptoms do show, they come two weeks later. Two WEEKS.
That means that for every sick person we see and test and hospitalize, there are probably a hundred people walking around feeling just fine, infecting other people who feel just fine, who infect OTHER people who feel JUST FINE.

Then two weeks later... KABOOM
Read 24 tweets
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巴丢草 Badiucao
@badiucao
landed in Melbourne
sore throat，sneezing and coughing on place
not sure fever
passengers from Italy sits right beside me…
the whole plan has coughing sound through the flight
I am doing the right thing to report myself to a airport medic now
I will do a test of #COVIDー19
2/ taken to a room for temperature test no fever
went through a question list 4 symptom history，if i met anyone from high risk country China italy
i told them i was in Prague 4 film festival & met many people around world.
but seems they are about letting me go.
3/ airport medicals are calling authority to ask about my measurement，go home or stay for test maybe…
seems phones got difficulty to go through…
personally i wish to stay and have test asap.
but i need to respect their decision.
#COVID2019
Read 33 tweets
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Chicago Community Bond Fund
@ChiBondFund
This is a thread about why it is absolutely essential that we get people out of jails, prisons, & immigration detention during the #COVIDー19 pandemic. It will include information & demands for how to #StopCOVID19inJails .

The health of people inside & all of us depends on it.
This piece by @premaldharia explains how #COVIDー19 could spark a humanitarian crisis inside prisons and jails. slate.com/news-and-polit… #StopCOVID19inJails
Jails and prisons are the perfect incubators for #COVIDー19. Health care in these facilities is often abysmal. This article from @nhbaptiste explains what jails and prisons should be doing to improve access to healthcare. motherjones.com/politics/2020/… #StopCOVID19inJails
Read 34 tweets
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HUNTSMAN 🇺🇸
@man_integrated
🦗 Locusts in the Horn of Africa 🦗

"If I shut up heaven that there be no rain, or if I command the locusts to devour the land, or if I send pestilence among my people;" - 2 Chronicles 7:13-14 (KJV)

Everything old is new again, it would seem.

Thread.
The Horn of Africa is no stranger to infestations of desert locusts, an especially prolific breeder with a voracious appetite for vegetation of any kind.

In the last hundred years, there have been seven locust-caused famines in the region.

2/
The author of the Jewish/Christian religious text Chronicles was said to be Ezra, writing around the 5th century BC. While that is not certain, what is interesting to note is the issue of locust plagues.

Locusts were also one of the plagues visited upon Egypt in Exodus.

3/
Read 26 tweets
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Stephen Loynd
@loyndsview
"Restrictions imposed to control the virus — & public panic — have transformed #Italy’s commercial & financial capital in a way some Milanese fear will result in a deep & lasting economic blow."

washingtonpost.com/world/europe/i… #Milan #ItalyCoronavirus
1/ "Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte this week said the economic blow to Italy could be 'very strong.'”
2/ “'If the virus spreads, and it will spread, I think any local or national politician would have to take very drastic action, and that will virtually halt the economy,' said Roberto Perotti, an economist at #Milan’s Bocconi University, who was #workingfromhome this week."
Read 8 tweets

Trending hashtags

#hack #UNBEKNOWNST #European #JVS #algorithms #Vatican #Apple #dunnit #CommunistParty #CommunistMorality #IsraelCrimes #China #racists #Meccca #RelaxWithStalin #France #CoronaPandemic #Westerdam #crimes #Kazakhstan #Tripoli #NoGambling #covidー19uk #PBSFakeNews #Williamson

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