Thread by @AishaLien

I read that Globe article about the impact of Covid19 on renters and I have some thoughts. Strap in. #HealthNotEvictions
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Tagging some major players in the #EvictionMoratorium @mapoli
@bostonglobe
@MikeConnollyMA
@MayorSiddiqu
@CityLife_Clvu
@SpeakerDeLeo
@RepMichlewitz
@ReclaimRoxbury
@KarenSpilka
@RepKevinHonan
@BostonLegalAid
@RepMichlewitz
@SenRodrigues

Background: I'm a paralegal in the greater Boston area, my office primarily handles housing court cases. 2/

I also live with 4 housemates in a rented apartment, and 2 of them just lost their jobs. 3/

The percentage of MA residents that rent their apartment sits around 37% factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableser… 4/

Let's be generous and assume that of that number, 60% will remain employed at the same income level, or have other available funds to pay rent, throughout the Covid19 shutdown 5/

If the pop of MA is 6.9 million, that leaves us with over 1 million ppl who will not be able to pay their rent for between two and six months. 6/

This has obvious ramifications, some of which we are already experiencing, like the surge of people applying for unemployment and masshealth 7/

(Programs which are already mismanaged, underfunded, byzantine, and struggling under the weight of demand) 8/

But today I'm going to focus on what happens when a million people are evicted through the MA housing court system in the next six months. 9/

Spoilers: it's not great, Chuck. @MassGovernor 10/

For Fiscal Year 2019 there were 30,614 summary process cases filed in the Housing Court system mass.gov/doc/filings-an… 11/

Summary Process is how MA refers to eviction proceedings, and this number includes both cause (everything from assault to inadequately cleaning your subsidized apartment) and non-payment 12/

Let's be extremely optimistic and assume that only half a million people, let's say about 200,000 households, might face eviction proceedings as a result of the shutdown 13/

That is a nearly 600% increase in total number of eviction cases handled by the housing court over a 12 month period 14/

200,000 households, by the way, is just over 7% of the total number of MA housing units, per 2017 census data factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableser… 15/

Working alongside the housing court, I can tell you, unequivocally, it will absolutely buckle under that degree of stress 16/

But that isn't what actually worries me. 17/

Now, there are several groups that administer emergency funds specifically to keep tenants in their homes 18/

Metrohousing Boston, The Tenancy Preservation Program (TPP), the Boston Housing Authority and Homestart are the agencies I personally work with the most often 19/

I don't actually know where all of their funding comes from, but I do know one major source is RAFT, Residential Assistance for Families in Transition 20/

RAFT is a state funded program that can provide up to $4k in funds to assist persons in immediate danger of homelessness 21/

Follow this link to learn about how one might qualify for RAFT mass.gov/service-detail… 22/

Let me be clear, this is a great and useful program and I am glad it exists. 23/

For the current fiscal year, RAFT has a total pool of $21 million, up from $20 million the previous year mahomeless.org/homelessness-p… 24/

$7 million of which has been specifically directed towards paying off rental arrears for tenants that have not yet entered eviction proceedings. 25/

Because of my job, I happen to know that in the 4th quarter of the last fiscal year, or May of 2019, RAFT ran out of money. 26/

Based on their published numbers, it is unlikely that my household, even with two adults out of work, will qualify for rental assistance funding through RAFT 27/

If my third housemate, who works in retail, cannot go to work, we will be relying solely on my income. 28/

I make $52k a year. The rent on our apartment is more than two weeks of my take home pay. 29/

At that point, on numbers only, our household would qualify for RAFT assistance. So will, optimistically, 100,000 others. 30/

Split evenly, that $21 million pool works out to $210 per household, an amount that would barely impact any but the most low income subsidized tenants in MA. 31/

Now, RAFT funds are not administered this way, but for the sake of argument, let's say that all the people applying for RAFT assistance over the next 8 months qualify for a full $4k payout. 32/

This scenario is actually plausible, given one of RAFT's qualifying criterion is that the money will demonstrably prevent homelessness 33/

Under these conditions, that $21 million would keep 5,250 households from being homeless. 34/

That's 2.63% of our original supposition of 200,000 households facing eviction 35/

And it leaves us with 194,750 households that need to find a minimum 2 months of rent somewhere else. 36/

Even if I cut that number in half, it is still the worst housing crisis the state has ever seen.37/

Meanwhile, back at the housing court… 38/

Let's assume we find a way to keep up with 200k additional eviction proceedings (unlikely) 39/

There are two basic outcomes to eviction cases: 1) the tenant leaves/ is removed 40/

2) the tenant stays, either by paying the money owed in full, or entering an agreement for repayment 41/

Let's be totally unrealistic for a moment, and assume that all 200k eviction cases end in repayment agreements. 42/

A fairly standard repayment agreement has a duration of ~1 year, or until the rental arrearage is paid in full 43/

If a tenant fails to keep up with their repayment plan at ANY POINT in that year, a landlord can file a motion to issue execution 44/

This means the court will have a hearing to determine if the landlord has enough reason, monetary or otherwise, to legally evict the tenant from their home. 45/

From experience, I can say that at absolute minimum, of 200k agreements, 5% (10k) will end up back in court. 46/

Again, two options: 1) tenant leaves 2) tenant enters an agreement with a 1 yr/ til debt is paid duration 47/

In the best case scenario, where no one is evicted, 190k families/ households will be in debt to their landlords for a year. 48/

10k households will be in debt to their landlord for more than a year. And! 49/

Unless you negotiate otherwise, vacating your apartment does not vacate your arrears. The landlord can request a judgement from the court for money still owed. 50/

In MA that judgement is good for 20 years. 51/

You know what people absolutely do not need right now? Another long term debt we have no idea when or if we'll be able to pay. 52/

But remember, this is the fantasy scenario, where everything is mostly okay. 53/

The far more likely scenario, for a situation in which we face 200k non-payment eviction cases, is that a good chunk of them end in eviction 54/

Since I don't have any hard numbers on the percentage of housing court cases that end in eviction 55/

I will be both arbitrary and optimistic and say 75% of cases end with the tenant staying in their home, and 25% (50k) end up losing their housing. 56/

Now remember, that's 50k households. If we assume the average number of ppl per household is 2, we finally arrive at what has me worried: 57/

Where are 100,000 homeless people going to go? 58/

Things not included in this hypothetical: 59/

How these numbers might be affected by other debts, such as student loans, credit card bills, or medical debt 60/

Impact by demographic, including race, age and income level 61/

Impact on local or statewide population density and diversity 62/

Impact to homeowners, mortgages, small businesses, large businesses, local governments, housing authorities, universities 63/

A COVID 19 DEATH TOLL OF MORE THAN 2

Everything above presupposes a best case covid 19 outcome where the shutdown does more damage than the pandemic itself 65/

And if you're thinking 'it won't be that bad' 66/

Of the 918,649 rental housing units in MA as counted by the 2013-2017 US Census (estimated data over 5 yrs) 67/

367,838 have a gross rent that exceeds 35% of the occupants annual income. 68/

That's one third of MA renters. About 851,000 people. 69/

35% is the point at which any drop in income can lead to falling irreparably behind on rent. 70/

I know this, because I have been very poor, and it has almost happened to me. 71/

Where are nearly 1 million homeless people going to go? 72/

We can't do more than we are to stop a pandemic. But we can avoid a subsequent housing crisis. 73/

I can even tell you how, but if you're not a socialist you're not going to like it. 74/

Short term: stop evicting people for non-payment and declare a moratorium on all new non-payment cases through at minimum the end of 2020. 75/

The state could also, conceivably, just pay everyone's rent and mortgages for the next 3 to 12 months. 76/

Medium term: implement rent control. Well over half of all MA rental units and therefore half of all tenants pay more than 20% of their income towards rent. 77/

That's not a coincidence, and it isn't sustainable. 78/

Long term: you guessed it, it's the standard socialist platform! Guaranteed housing, universal healthcare, student loan debt forgiveness, and hell, let's throw in the green new deal and a UBI 79/

Seriously though, if we had that kind of social safety net in place at this moment...well I wouldn't be writing this thread. 80/

And before someone jumps in asking where we'll get the money for that: the problem is never the money. 81/

When the people at the top think something is important, it happens. When they don't, it doesn't. 82/

They are literally having a hearing on legislation to implement the exact short term solution outlined above right now. 83/

So this is my plea to Charlie Baker and the MA legislature. This is important. It is urgent. It is necessary. There has to be a plan. 84/

You have the opportunity to limit the scope of our suffering. Please take it. 85/85

And if any pros out there want to tell me my numbers are wrong FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DO IT I HAVE LOST SO MUCH SLEEP OVER THIS #EvictionMoratorium #HealthNotEvictions