Election forecast UPDATE from @RachelBitecofer. A likely Biden nomination means that we can say with even more certainty that Dems will retake the presidency. Regardless of the VP pick. But some VP picks are smarter than others. THREAD. 1/ niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post… 
With Joe Biden as the nominee, Democrats are in a far stronger place than they would have been with Bernie Sanders. Sanders could have been the one candidate to knock the Democrats off-course. 2/
Progressives might find Biden bland, but he fills the role of “generic Democrat” perfectly fine, and that is all that is really required from Democrats to win this election. 3/
(Because as Sanders supporters are learning, 2016 was about revolution. 2020 is about getting Trump out of office and returning to normalcy.) 4/
Biden could create an incredibly moderate ticket (with perhaps Amy Klobuchar), and he’d win, according to Bitecofer’s forecast. But it probably wouldn’t be the best play. 5/
That’s because white, working class, rural voters aren’t likely to come back to the Democractic party, as @daveweigel has observed. Dems tried to woo them in 2016, and it looks like they might be setting up to repeat that same mistake in 2020. 6/ washingtonpost.com/politics/palom…
Bitecofer shows that 2018 wasn’t won by swing voters (disaffected Republicans voting Democrat). The Democrats won because of a massive turnout in Democratic voters. 7/
Traditional forecasting models have focused on independent, or swing voters, which make up ⅓ of the electorate. But the pool of persuadable independents is small, at only 7%. Most are pretty reliably affiliated with one party. More from @NewRepublic 8/ newrepublic.com/article/156402…
As @TheRickWilson, @MichaelSteele, and Bitecofer have noted, Dems seem set on the swing voter theory. But the data show that having two moderates on the ticket just isn’t a smart strategy. Disaffected Republicans won’t win the election for Democrats. 9/
podbay.fm/podcast/141290…
podbay.fm/podcast/141290…
Instead, Democrats need to focus on their vulnerabilities within one coalition. And their biggest vulnerability is the progressive faction, disaffected by Sanders’ loss. 10/
As the losing ideological faction from the primary, progressives are about to become the targets of a well-financed, sophisticated propaganda campaign hosted by Republicans. 11/
Having a progressive VP pick, to persuade the progressive wing of the Democrats to turn out, could be a game-changer. 12/
In addition, racial representation matters. Democrats were also left exposed in 2016 when turnout among voters of color, especially black voters, receded from its Obama Era highs. 13/
So a VP pick like Kamala Harris or Stacey Abrams could be a wise choice for Democrats hoping to shore up their wins and avoid a (very unlikely) 2016-redux. 14/
Now, on to the actual updates on predictions by state, Rachel’s thoughts on how a recession and a pandemic might impact the race, and more… Read the full forecast here! 15/15 niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post…
