Thread by @mazzenilsson

This model shows a "countdown" to "Day 0" when 100% of the Swedish population will be infected with the novel corona virus. All actions of the Swedish government and medical authorities must be focused on a "0%-increase" in the number of infected patients.

However the kill numbers of today - on Thursday the 26th of March - is somewhat higher than the model predicts. This means that "we are behind on the curve" and that "we are losing time" according to the model.

And this means that we have (at least) thousands of persons infected with the novel corona virus that has not been detected by the medical system. The kill numbers indicate that we are on "day minus 35". So we have about 10 days, or less than 2w before te ICU is Italian."

So if you would like the clock to stop in 10 to 17 days - and if you might slide along the road for 2 to 35 days - when should you have hit the brakes? Well, you should have done so some 3 weeks ago. My conclusions today?

1.Sweden should have hit the brakes some 3 weeks ago. A German lock down.

2.Sweden will not be able "to stop the clock" in 10 to 17 days on the 11th of April. We will keep driving with our Volvo car straight into the abyss.

3. I have previously argued for a self-disciplined and controlled "stay the eff at home-movement".

Fcuk that!

It is now time to change our defensive strategy. We must instead spread mass panic. The Swedish government and the medical authorities are not doing enough.

Please help me do this. If we can stop the clock 2 weeks earlier we will save thousands of lives later on. And then some. My projetions since Feb 27 have so far sadly been spot on. And no. I do not have any "mad panic" myself. This is an ice-cold message. Help me save lives! Now!

After a certain date in the model has been passed, the actual date number will be written first, and the predicted date number will be written in the parentheses.

DAY MINUS 44.
23rd of March; 2 046 infected, 104 intensive, 25 dead

DAY MINUS 29.
7th of April; 10 396 infected, 520 intensive, 260 dead
DAY MINUS 28.
8th of April; 12 215 infected, 611 intensive, 306 dead
DAY MINUS 27.
9th of April; 14 658 infected, 733 intensive, 367 dead
DAY MINUS 26.
10th of April; 17 589 infected, 880 intensive, 440 dead

DAY MINUS 2.
4th of May; 6 015 123 infected, 300 757 intensive, 225 568 dead

DAY MINUS 1.
5th of May; 8 120 416 infected, 406 021 intensive, 304 516 dead

(+ 37,5 % / d)

"DAY 0."
6th of May; 11 165 571 infected, 558 279 intensive, 418 709 dead

I have created the following model as based on the number of infected persons and as of today. I wanted to have "a great hook" on the model, as I would like to show how dangerous it is to be complacent and happy in the early days of the ongoing war.

Lock down. Now.

I estimate the number of infected persons to grow with 7,5% per day and to increase with an additional 2,5% on every fourth day. I estimate the number of patients in the ICU´s to be 5% of the overall number of infected persons.

I estimate the number of dead people to be 1,25% of the overall number of infected persons, until the number of people in the ICU´s reaches the number of 500 patients. Then the number of dead people increases to 2,5% of the overall number of infected persons.

When the number of people in the ICU´s reaches 5 000 patients, the number of dead people increases to 3,75% of the overall number of infected persons. And then it stays there.

The FHM right now are very happy and very confident. They will (falsely) believe they are in control. But they are not. They will believe that they are in control for many weeks. And then they will realise that they are not. And that they are way behind on the curve. Too late.

What happens in the end. Everything grows "like hell on fire". Everything will be going so fast. It is impossible to understand. But it will. It will be crazy fast. And that is when society collapses. And that is when people will begin to die in massive numbers.

I do expect the curve (& the growth) to flatten out in late April. A lot of people in Sweden currently mistrusts the medical authorities and stays at home in order to protect themselves. This distrust will save a lot of people one month from now. Please panic and stay home.

Good Luck Sweden.

– Stormen är här, säger region Stockholms hälso- och sjukvårdsdirektör Björn Eriksson på en presskonferens.
Bara timmar innan meddelade Anders Tegnell att läget är ”stabilt”.

Dessa dubbla budskap bevisar att FHM knows nothing.