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Trump demonized China over COVID-19. This stoked concern that China would cut off hospital supply exports.

EU has its own China worries, and applied export restrictions.

New customs data: Chinese PPE exports did not fall as much as feared.

My latest 1/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
The world, including the US and EU, import a lot of medical equipment from China.

With the initial coronavirus outbreak in January, concerns arose in that those supplies would get cut off. Why?

1. Massive Chinese demand spike
2. Chinese supply disruptions 2/
The EU and others began to impose export restrictions on their own domestic PPE production as shortages arose

This is NOT good... 3/

piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
NEW DATA RELEASE!!!

Chinese customs data for Jan/Feb 2020

Result: China is NOT hoarding medical supplies.

Yes, Chinese exports of PPE fell by 15%

But Chinese exports of everything else fell by 17%!!! - ie, those fell by even more...

4/
POLICY:

• Rest easier that China did not impose an export ban
• EU - consider lifting your export restrictions earlier than the current late April expiration date
• Trump - ignore calls for US export bans and 'Buy Local' provisions

ENDS/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
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More from @ChadBown see all

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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
COVID-19

On March 15, the EU imposed emergency export curbs on $12.1 billion of hospital supplies destined for outside the bloc.

New channels of suffering: retaliatory export restrictions, supply chains, and indifference to poor countries.

My latest 1/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
On March 15, the European Commission implemented an Act restricting exports to countries outside the bloc of

• Face shields: $7.4 billion
• Protective garments: $3.1 b
• Mouth-nose-protective equipment: $900 million
• Hospital gloves: $400 m
• Goggles: $200 m 2/
When measured by total sales affected, the biggest disruptions could include EU exports to the United States, Switzerland, Norway, China, and Russia… 3/
Read 8 tweets
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
COVID-19

In 2018, health experts warned Trump. Putting tariffs on medical products would hurt US preparedness for pandemics. He did it anyway.

How Trump's tariffs may contribute to shortages at the time of a national health crisis.

My latest 1/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
“These products are essential to protecting healthcare providers and their patients"

“products on the proposed list are used widely throughout healthcare settings and are a critical component of our nation's response to public health emergencies”

~ Matt Rowan, August 2018 2/
Despite warnings from health experts, Trump’s began imposing 25 percent tariffs on Chinese medical equipment in July 2018.

The tariffs resulted in a sharp decline in US imports from China of many of these critical medical products between 2017 and 2019... 3/
Read 8 tweets
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1/ Thanks @SNLester!

(and for sharing your dispute stats)

GREAT QUESTION!!!

On “other explanations,” one important one (mentioned only briefly in the paper) is the impact of the rise of Global Value Chains (GVCs) causing firms themselves to want less trade remedy protection...
2/ The logic:

With cross border supply chains, an American firm now has its own production (exports) embedded in stuff the US now **IMPORTS**.

A trade remedy (tariff) hurts the foreigner, but some of the COST is also passed back to the American firm through the supply chain.
3/ Evidence that the rise of GVCs have reduced trade remedy use during this period

Paper #1: Emily J. Blanchard, Chad P. Bown, and Robert C. Johnson, "Global Value Chains and Trade Policy," NBER WP, August 2017.

👉🏾 chadpbown.com/wp-content/upl…
Read 4 tweets

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