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1/ Thanks @SNLester!

(and for sharing your dispute stats)

GREAT QUESTION!!!

On “other explanations,” one important one (mentioned only briefly in the paper) is the impact of the rise of Global Value Chains (GVCs) causing firms themselves to want less trade remedy protection...
2/ The logic:

With cross border supply chains, an American firm now has its own production (exports) embedded in stuff the US now **IMPORTS**.

A trade remedy (tariff) hurts the foreigner, but some of the COST is also passed back to the American firm through the supply chain.
3/ Evidence that the rise of GVCs have reduced trade remedy use during this period

Paper #1: Emily J. Blanchard, Chad P. Bown, and Robert C. Johnson, "Global Value Chains and Trade Policy," NBER WP, August 2017.

👉🏾 chadpbown.com/wp-content/upl…
4/ Evidence that the rise of GVCs have reduced trade remedy use during this period

Paper #2: Chad P. Bown, Aksel Erbahar, and Maurizio Zanardi, "Global Value Chains and the Removal of Trade Protection," PIIE working paper 20-3, February

👉🏾 piie.com/system/files/d…
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More from @ChadBown see all

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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1/
Trump has ended the WTO’s way of resolving trade disputes disputes. The system worked for 25 years.

The big question is WHY.

In a new essay, @SoumayaKeynes and I tell the story…

piie.com/publications/w…
2/
 The origins of WTO dispute settlement are a HUGE part of the story.

Before the WTO there was the GATT. But GATT dispute settlement did not work.

And other problems plagued the 1980s.

The world HATED America's voluntary export restraints - on Japanese cars, EC steel...
3/
In 1995, the WTO became the compromise. It provided binding dispute settlement, which MOST Americans LIKED.

It asked the US to stop using VERs. (The US mostly stopped using those.)

But the WTO also preserved "policy space" (the Americans thought) to use TRADE REMEDIES**...
Read 12 tweets
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1/

Even without COVID-19, Trump's vaunted "phase one" deal with China is deeply problematic.

Read it. The legal terms of his agreement effectively urge China to become MORE – not less – STATE-DIRECTED.

My look at some new data, with @MELovely_Max

piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
2/

Trump's agreement went into effect on February 14. His deal promises $200 billion – "could be closer to $300 billion" (!!!) – of additional US exports to China by the end of 2021.

But the text of the deal is SILENT about Chinese tariffs. And THAT is a problem.

Here's why.
3/

By signing the deal, Trump agreed to allow China's TARIFFS imposed on US exporters to remain MUCH HIGHER than China's tariffs on stuff made or grown in Japan, Germany, and Brazil...

To Chinese consumers, American stuff remains A LOT more expensive.
Read 13 tweets
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1/
Trump administration puts forward a fascinating WTO proposal **CLEARLY** directed at China:

"The Importance of MARKET-ORIENTED Conditions to the World Trading System"

So this is new. And this is interesting.

But it is MADDENINGLY INCONSISTENT with Trump's own policies...
2/
Trump wants WTO General Council to express "its serious concerns with non-market-oriented policies and practices that have resulted in damage to the world trading system"

Such a conversation could be useful, if it were even-handed and backed up by evidence of harm.

BUT...
3/
MADDENING is how this proposal is INCONSISTENT with Trump's own "Phase One" deal with China

Problematic is prioritization of China making $200 (or was it $300? $400? $500?) billion of purchase commitments, which was clearly done for campaigning...

cnbc.com/2020/01/21/wef…
Read 6 tweets

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