The U.S. may lose about 90,000 Americans to Covid-19 because we did not manage the virus as well as South Korea did. The first wave is estimated to take 93,000 US lives; it took 174 South Koreans (equivalent to 1,100 on a US population). My new column: nyti.ms/2UICv2c
The good news, the experts say, is that we have a toolbox that works: Social distancing is proving effective, and quite quickly. Italy and Iran may be through the worst of the first wave, and Washington State and New Rochelle, NY, both handled outbreaks well and bent the curve.
But the bad news is that once we bend the curve, it springs back once we relax on social distancing and business closures. So long as people lack immunity and a vaccine, normal activities will result in new outbreaks. We may see wave after wave of Covid until we have a vaccine.
That's from my new column looking at lessons epidemiologists have learned from the places hit first by Covid-19. Some good news (distancing works) and some bad (death rates may be higher than optimists hoped, and it's not over with the first wave). nyti.ms/2UICv2c
