Thread by @nytimes

Italy underestimated the coronavirus outbreak at first, then officials ordered a national lockdown to contain it.

A month later, officials warn it is still too soon to reopen. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Italy identified its first case of local coronavirus transmission in the province of Lodi on Feb. 20. A cluster of cases appeared to be connected to a 38-year-old man there. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

As the coronavirus spread, the Italian government created “red zones” around 10 towns in Lodi and around the town of Vo’ in Padua province, effectively quarantining 50,000 people. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Officials closed schools, museums and theaters and canceled religious and sporting events, as more cases were reported across northern Italy.

But others played down the threat of the virus.

A surge of new cases persuaded the government to lock down much of the north on March 8.

But the March 8 order leaked early, and many people fled the area before it took effect.

Just 2 days later, more than 10,000 people across Italy had been infected with the coronavirus. The prime minister banned all nonessential movement across the entire country on March 10.

These extreme measures appear to have worked: Most people stopped moving around.

Researchers found sharp reductions in travel after each lockdown took effect. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Now a month into the nationwide lockdown, the number of new coronavirus cases in Italy seems to be decreasing. But more than 124,000 people have tested positive for Covid-19. And the country's death toll is the highest in the world and still rising.

Lombardy, the Italian region where the coronavirus outbreak was first detected, has been hit hardest.

But Lombardy may also be the first area of Italy to see the lockdown’s positive effects. Provinces that limited mobility sooner reduced the rate of infection more quickly.

Italy's lockdown was scheduled to lift on April 3 but officials extended it because the country was still reporting thousands of new infections daily.

“If we started to loosen the measures, all our efforts made so far would have been in vain,” Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said.

For now, keeping the lockdown in place — even for longer than is strictly necessary — is the safest way for Italy to ensure that the virus does not keep spreading.

See more from @atmccann, @PopovichN, @jwf825. nytimes.com/interactive/20…