Thread by @ejmalrai

I had a long conversation with many people in #Lebanon. I understand the serious financial problem that is mainly caused by the lack of trust and panic of the population. What I don't understand is why many believe there will be a war with #Israel? +

Although Hezbollah always believes the possibility of war exists, you should see the bigger picture and come out of a narrow focus:
1. Israel is in no position to declare a war
2. Israel domestic front is far from being ready for a war

3. Israel has a governmental crisis and a Coronavirus crisis.
4. Israel relationship with the Gulf countries is far from being new. The relationship existed since 1980 and is more overt and open to the world now.
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5. Israel understands that in any war, total destruction would be the case on both sides. Israel is not ready to live without electricity, all 17 airports under bombing, harbour closed, oil platforms destroyed. #Lebanon has seen near-total destructions many times.

6. Israel could not maintain a long war with #Gaza that has small missiles, actually tiny in comparison to the 450kg of explosive in every single highly precision missile held by Hezbollah.

7. The front against #Israel is not expected to be limited to the south of #Lebanon. Long-range precision missiles are located on the Syrian-Lebanese borders, inside mountains and silos, to the knowledge of Israel intel.

8. A war betwn Hezbollah & Israel would no longer be limited to 2000 sqkm in the south of Leb but will cover much wider areas, including the Syrian borders. Israel is aware and not ready for a multi-front war. The army said, following many manoeuvres, not ready for such a threat.

9. The option of bombing #Israel indeed exists but only if the plan to supply #Lebanon with sufficient supply is disturbed. Bombing Israel doesn't mean an all-ou-war. It would be a tit-for-tat.

So, I would relax from that angle. And last, Lebanon won't starve.

Read tomorrow.