Thread by @UmlandAndreas

1/6: The current German Center-Left/Center-Right so-called "#GrandCoalition" #GroKo is now without a #majority in the polls. This increases the likelihood that #Merkel's departure in fall 2021 will not only usher in a change of government and #chancellor.
pollytix.de/wahltrend/?fbc…

2/6: The #Bundestag elections in September 2021 will seemingly also herald a new era in #Germanfederalpolitics - in the form of an entirely novel #governmental #coalition.

3/6: Both, the so-called Black-Green Coalition, i.e. a joint government of the @cducsubt and @GrueneBundestag, and the so-called Traffic Light Coalition, i.e. a joint government of @diegruenen, @spdde and @fdpbt, would be a first in Berlin.

4/6: Other new constellations are also possible, but appear as unlikely. A joint government of the @spd, @dieLinke & @Die_Gruenen, seems impossible, for the time being, after the February 2021 congress of the #GermanLeft failed to change the party's course on foreign policy.

5/6: The so-called #Germany Coalition, i.e. a joint government of the @CDU, @CSU, @spdbt and @fdpbt, is theoretically possible, but would relegate the #FDP to a stapes holder for the current governmental alliance.

6/6: The so-called #Kenya, #Jamaica & #Bahamas coalitions do not warrant discussion. A #minority government cannot be ruled out, but is also unlikely in view of various majority governments operating in German regional parliaments. @Die_Gruenen will thus likely enter government.

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