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Andreas Umland Profile picture
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2 Apr, 3 tweets, 7 min read
1/3: Dr. @RichardHerzing1 warnt hier zu Recht vor einer möglichen großen Eskalation in der #Ukraine. Wie schon 2014 steht #Putin angesichts sinkender Wählerunterstützung mit dem Rücken zur Wand. @GSPSipo @Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia @Sicherheitspod herzinger.org/putin-plant-de…
2/3: #WladimirPutin könnte neuerlich versuchen, mit einer militärischen #Aggression und #Gebietsexpansion - wie 2014 mit der #Krimannexion - von den wachsenden inneren Problemen #Russland|s abzulenken. @UISweden @UkrInFuture @ostexperte @RusVerstehen @LiberaleModerne @OstWestTV
3/3: Die ökonomische Lage #Russlands ist offenbar schlechter, als es die offiziellen Zahlen andeuten. Siehe dazu der Brief von #TorbjörnBecker @SITEStockholm @handels_sse | @threadreaderapp #unroll @OstAusschuss @osteuropaverein @Der_BDI @wiwo @ostexperte freepolicybriefs.org/2021/03/09/rus…

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More from @UmlandAndreas

Andreas Umland Profile picture
27 Mar
1/6: The current German Center-Left/Center-Right so-called "#GrandCoalition" #GroKo is now without a #majority in the polls. This increases the likelihood that #Merkel's departure in fall 2021 will not only usher in a change of government and #chancellor.
pollytix.de/wahltrend/?fbc…
2/6: The #Bundestag elections in September 2021 will seemingly also herald a new era in #Germanfederalpolitics - in the form of an entirely novel #governmental #coalition. Image
3/6: Both, the so-called Black-Green Coalition, i.e. a joint government of the @cducsubt and @GrueneBundestag, and the so-called Traffic Light Coalition, i.e. a joint government of @diegruenen, @spdde and @fdpbt, would be a first in Berlin. Image
Read 7 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
13 Mar
1/4: This could be the preparation of a military escalation in southern #Ukraine that would transform the Ukrainian-Russian conflict from a Russian "delegated inter-state #war" (@HauterJakob) into an ordinary inter-state war between the two countries.
ytro.ru/news/life/2021…
2/4: After a successful Russian court trial, the #Kremlin would claim to have the legal right to receive fresh water from the #Dnipro river (which starts in #Russia). Kyiv would not respect such a Russian court decision.
3/4: #Russia could invade southern mainland Ukraine to implement a respective court order and try to capture the now dry #NorthCrimeanCanal from the Dnipro to #Crimea. This would mean the first, from Moscow's side, official employment of regular Russian troops in dryland Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
15 Oct 20
20th century problems on 21st century #Crimea: Unlike in Soviet times, #watersupply is not any longer a complicated infrastructural, but today a simple financial issue. 1/4
A broad variety of #desalinationtechnologies is today allowing many countries with insufficient #freshwater reserves, e.g. Israel, Saudi Arabia or Iraq, to live on desalinated sea water. Yet, #Moscow is unwilling to invest money into building #Crimean d
#desalination plants. 2/4
Instead, #Kremlinmedia portrays falling #freshwatersupply on Crimea as a #humanitariandisaster caused by #Ukrainian stubbornness. Many brainwashed #Russians may accept this geopolitical rather than financial-technical explanation of #Crimea's principal infrastructural issue. 3/4
Read 5 tweets

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