The two computer models which are known for their prowess in predicting cyclones continue to forecast cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea in coming days.
The question of whether these cyclones will form hangs over today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.
This image shows the Arabian Sea area where the GFS and ECMWF models are both expecting cyclone formation within the next 10 days, at different times and in different places.
Here's the GFS 9th May model forecast for today showing formation starting on Friday and landfall five days later.
The ECMWF has formation a day later next Saturday, off the coast of Kerela India and landfall imminent on Wednesday 19th.
Neither the CMC or KMA models show formation at all in their latest runs. NOTE: Cyclone formation is a complicated process and may not happen at all.
But cyclone or no cyclone the, the combination of intense thunderstorm activity in the Arabian Sea and on-shore winds may well result in increased rainfall over coming days as shown in these 10-day forecasts for North Africa from GFS, CMC (10 day) and KMA (12 day) models.
Here are today's rainfall forecasts:
First up, May 9th, 10-day accumulated rain forecasts, for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa from the @ECMWF, GFS and KMA weather models.
+ Here are 3-day accumulated rain forecasts, to Midnight Wednesday, for #Ethiopia and the #HornOfAfrica, again from the @ECMWF, GFS and KMA weather models.
The rain pattern has changed with more of a rain focus in the West Ethiopian Highlands - the #GERD#Abay watershed.
It's been a quiet day for #ArabianStorms today with only modest thunderstorms along the Red Sea cost of #SaudiArabia. The strong winds across the Eastern Arabian Peninsula from the #HornOfAfrica to #Oman have finally died down.
Pictures: Caspian Sea, Aral Sea and Arabian Gulf.
While the rains gave stopped the video imagery keeps coming from @Arab_Storms, here an amazing video of Oman Mountain waterfalls.
Here are today's, May 9th, 10 day accumulated rain forecasts, for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF (both showing a Cyclone), CMC & KMA weather models.
And the final rainfall forecasts for tonight for the #MiddleEast are ultra-long range computer model forecasts, these provide a view of what a cyclone may bring >> The last 3 GFS (16 Day) model runs + the (12-Day) KMA model (no Cyclone).
الله أعلم
And finally, a reminder that no cyclone has yet formed. If one does official warnings and information will be provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center from the U.S. Navy here >> metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
At this point following the Qatar obscenity Israel is now breaking the internet and the world.
something decisive is needed to break Israel - a peaceful action that will work and show the world that justice still exists and that peace is possible.
A wise friend proposed a brilliant idea. Every nation on earth which is willing and able should send a frigate to the Mediterranean Sea and take a message to Israel that it cannot ignore.
The foundations of the United Nations itself are now crumbling under the weight of the Gaza Obscenity and nations like Britain that seem to have been turned are facing protest and resistance of epic proportions from their citizens.
I’ll be posting videos and news here on Twitter from the flotilla which is about to depart from Majorca for Tunis on the first leg of the journey to Gaza.
More boats are expected to join the flotilla from Europe and North Africa along the way as it moves west across the Mediterranean. @GretaThunberg is making the voyage again and Israel will not be able to contain or stop this flotilla most likely. And definitely not the publicity.
This first video is of a wind squall hitting one of the boats as it departs Barcelona.
Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.