Thread by @MartinKGHI

#COVID_SSA Week 61 UPDATE to 8/5/21 – 36,291 new #COVID19 cases last week (-12% on Week 61) and 973 deaths (-4%). W Africa now -70% below peak for new cases, Central -5%, E -64% and Southern -89%. THREAD👉 for more details @NIHRglobal @AfricaCDC 1/10> 👉

39/ 46 sub-Saharan African countries have had a resurgent 2nd wave, which 28 have suppressed. #Congo #Kenya #Mali are in a 3rd wave.
#Botswana has yet to control W1
Last week
- the long 1st wave in #Togo peaked
- #Djibouti suppressed its 2nd wave
- #Congo entered 3rd wave
2/10>

Seven countries reported >1,500 cases last week
#SouthAfrica 11,975 (+41%)
#Ethiopia 4,155 (-42%)
#Kenya 3,185 (-15%)
#Cameroun 2,696 (+20%*)
#CaboVerde 1,984 (-2%)
#Angola 1,622 (+23%)
#Madagascar 1,578 (-22%)
* Trend from 2 week rolling average (intermittent reporting)
3/10>

NO countries reported highest ever weekly cases this week
TWO countries reported a new peak in weekly deaths
#Angola (30 deaths)
#Namibia (40 deaths)
4/10>

The generally favourable trend continues. Transmission is suppressed in 30/46 countries. Improvement in many countries with resurgent transmission, particularly those in E Africa #Djibouti #Ethiopia #Kenya #Madagascar 5/10>

CONCERNS 1.
VOI B.1.617(dominant in #India) identified in #Kenya #Uganda #SouthAfrica. These seem to be among travellers, with no evidence yet of wider community transmission 6/10>
africanews.com/2021/05/05/cov…
nicd.ac.za/covid-19-updat…

CONCERNS 2
Last week saw a more significant ⬆️in new cases in #SouthAfrica accompanied by ⬆️ test +ve proportion, now >5%. #SouthAfrica is still far below Wave 2 peak but contributing nearly 1/3rd of new cases in the region. Detailed update soon 7/10>

CONCERNS 3a
Several countries have been relatively slow to bring outbreaks under control, with prolonged periods of linear growth. #Botswana (49 weeks, Wave 1) #Burundi (20, W2) #Namibia (24, W2) #Cameroun (25, W2) 👇8/10 >

CONCERNS 3b
Same is true for #Mozambique (48 weeks) & #Togo (56 weeks) - both Wave 1 - although these outbreaks were recently suppressed after increases in testing activity 👇9/10>

CONCERNS 3c
These are outliers, most SSA countries show 'waves' of transmission interspersed with long intervals of suppression. Reasons complex: ⬇️public health controls & test/trace/isolate may contribute. Potential risks: incubating new variants & regional transmission 10/10