Thread by @Saurabhsays_

@ipcc_ch reports that b/w 1971 & 2010, oceans absorbed over 90% of the heat gained by the planet due to #globalwarming. This led to #sealevel rise and has also resulted in higher frequency & intensity of #cyclones worldwide. #ClimateChange #MumbaiMustPrepare @mumbaismagic

Indian Ocean has also warmed but what is worrying is the higher rate of #warming in comparison to other global ocean basins. Data shows that Indian Ocean’s rapid basin-wide warming of ~1degC over the last 60 yrs exceeds that of the global average of ~0.7 degC. #MumbaiMustPrepare

Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal have also seen consistent warming in past decades. The trend in rise in sea surface temperature for BoB has been 0.16C/decade & 0.18C/decade for AS. Arabian Sea indeed has been warming quite rapidly and impacts are for us to see. #MumbaiMustPrepare

This Arabian Sea warming is resulting in higher & more intense #cyclones.The last decade saw 11% rise in cyclones with around 32% in the past 5 years alone as reported by @indianmetdept. Recent years have also shown higher frequency & intensity of cyclonic storms ovr Arabian Sea

Since 2018, Arabian Sea has consistently seen more than its yearly average of 1 cyclone per year. The year 2021 is 4th consecutive yr that has seen a pre-monsoon cyclone over Arabian Sea. #Tauktae was the 11th Cyclonic Storm to form over Arabian Sea since 2018. #MumbaiMustPrepare

Such cyclones pose a huge threat to western #coastal cities of India. The financial capital #Mumbai which is already a #vulnerability hotspot due to millions living near the coastline & with delicate #infrastructure near the coast needs to be extra cautious. #MumbaiMustPrepare

While data attributes warming seas towards rising frequency & intensity of #cyclones over India, the #climate #model projections indicate such warming to continue in the future that calls for urgent and early action at city scales. #climateaction #MumbaiMustPrepare

While investments in cyclone tracking models have helped early evacuation & reduce loss of lives, economic losses due to cyclones hve seen considerable increase (~billions USDs) with no sign of reduction in the foreseeable future. #Urbanisation has rendered more to be destroyed.

With #cyclones coming close to highly urbanised cities like #Mumbai which has much lesser experience like its eastern counterparts, it’s imperative that inclusion of regionally tweaked #riskstrategies to answer “Science of where” should be carried out. #MumbaiMustPrepare

Developing & investing in #resilientInfra & creation of holistic, scaleable & community level #disaster #risk & #climateaction plan is need of the hour. Such plans should not only be inclusive & ambitious but also Just. #MumbaiMustPrepare

Mumbai would continue to face threat from compounding risks viz. cyclone winds, storm surges, sea level rise & flooding. There is much to learn from #Odisha which has consistently and successfully managed #cyclone threats in past along while battling #covid19. #MumbaiMustPrepare

Concerted focus on protecting & rebuilding natural defenses like coastal vegetation, mangroves, coastal sand dunes, salt pans and wetlands should be in highest priority esp. for a low-lying city like Mumbai that’s built on reclaimed land. #NatureBasedSolutions #MumbaiMustPrepare

Such natural defences tend to reduce the speed of #cyclones thereby reducing #impact on #coastal infra & population. Studies hv documented their efficacy in providing annual #economic benefits to #India but rapid #urbanisation has been destroying them at a rapid pace.

Mutual learning &implementation is key to shareable vision towards goal of #resilience for all. With #CycloneYaas hitting the eastern coastline, #Mumbai shd incorporate the learnings from eastern front in enhancing disaster preparedness & recovery mechanisms. #MumbaiMustPrepare