Thread by @althecat

Today's forecasts for #NorthAfrica, and the #HornOfAfrica follow.

This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.

#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile

The strength of the West African Monsoon continues to grow as you can see in the animation above. During the current active period (See also #EuropeBigWet) the Sahara is forecast to reach a point where there is water over most of the great desert. Here are 10d rainfall forecasts.

This image this evening shows a cluster of #ArabianStorms around Medina yet again and storms over Yemen. Storms are also forming over Ethiopia but this is not yet the rainy season. The westerly wind can also be seen - and my understanding is this will eventually bring big rains.

Here are todays June 8th 12 & 10-Day rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica

#Ethiopia #SouthSudan #Sudan #GERD #Somaliland #Somalia #Djibouti #Eritrea #Yemen

I am changing up the short range forecasts to two days. I.E. today and tomorrow's rainfall. There is a huge range between the model forecasts. We shall soon see which is right.

Here is an animation of the #HoA today at sunset and after. The cloud builds until sunset and continues after. We have seen this with westerlies before. Today's clouds are directly over the Abbay watershed - i.e. feeding the #GERD

Here you see a wider view of the #HornOfAfrica today before dark.

And here is a closeup of today's #ArabianStorms arranged symmetrically in an arc from the Oman Border to the mountains north of Medina.

Which brings us to the live report section courtesy of @Arab_Storms wonderful account which is well worth a follow.

Here we have a flooded riverbed in Oman

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1402312405464477698?s=20

A foreboding and stormy sky in #Yemen

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1402303320841146376?s=20

A hail storm south of Samail, also in Oman

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1402267141018165258?s=20

10-Day June 8th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

48 Hour June 8th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

12 & 16 Day June 8th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the KMA and GFS weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

Which brings me to the conclusion of today's forecasts and as promised an explanation for the first image - showing the monsoon over South East Asia expanding West.

In the regular 384 hour rainfall forecast above you see rainfall on the coast of Yemen.

This animation shows what is expected to cause this rain - that is an gradual extension of monsoon rains across Pakistan and the Arabian Sea, reaching Yemen at the very end.

This animation shows a view of the underlying water in the atmosphere which is also moving West over the course of the simulation.

And at the end of this period westerly winds coming off this monsoon, as I understand it, are what power the big rainy season in the #HornOfAfrica.

/ENDS

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