This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.
The strength of the West African Monsoon continues to grow as you can see in the animation above. During the current active period (See also #EuropeBigWet) the Sahara is forecast to reach a point where there is water over most of the great desert. Here are 10d rainfall forecasts.
This image this evening shows a cluster of #ArabianStorms around Medina yet again and storms over Yemen. Storms are also forming over Ethiopia but this is not yet the rainy season. The westerly wind can also be seen - and my understanding is this will eventually bring big rains.
Here are todays June 8th 12 & 10-Day rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica
I am changing up the short range forecasts to two days. I.E. today and tomorrow's rainfall. There is a huge range between the model forecasts. We shall soon see which is right.
Here is an animation of the #HoA today at sunset and after. The cloud builds until sunset and continues after. We have seen this with westerlies before. Today's clouds are directly over the Abbay watershed - i.e. feeding the #GERD
Here you see a wider view of the #HornOfAfrica today before dark.
And here is a closeup of today's #ArabianStorms arranged symmetrically in an arc from the Oman Border to the mountains north of Medina.
Which brings us to the live report section courtesy of @Arab_Storms wonderful account which is well worth a follow.
Which brings me to the conclusion of today's forecasts and as promised an explanation for the first image - showing the monsoon over South East Asia expanding West.
In the regular 384 hour rainfall forecast above you see rainfall on the coast of Yemen.
This animation shows what is expected to cause this rain - that is an gradual extension of monsoon rains across Pakistan and the Arabian Sea, reaching Yemen at the very end.
This animation shows a view of the underlying water in the atmosphere which is also moving West over the course of the simulation.
And at the end of this period westerly winds coming off this monsoon, as I understand it, are what power the big rainy season in the #HornOfAfrica.
If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.
And he will then have to make a decision on whether he is willing to remain in the U.S.
@realDonaldTrump Should he proceed as he has intimated that he should now be pursued by protestors everywhere he goes.
There is a lot of concern about evacuations of civilians from Gaza in the flotilla as anyone leaving may not be able to return any time soon. /2
But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
Attacks from drones on the flotilla have resumed and Israel is presumably responsible for this. It is because of this that naval vessels from Europe are now joining the flotilla to protect their citizens rights of travel in international waters. /2
The escalation appears fairly slow at present and the flotilla is still within Greek waters at present /3
The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona.
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.app
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla