Satellite images of the monsoon winds path to the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast in three pictures. 1. The source... Bay of Bengal 2. The voyage.... The Arabian Sea 3. Landfall
Today's rainfall forecasts for the wider area follow.
Four North Africa 10-Day rainfall forecasts for today June 18th. Forecasts for the West Africa Monsoon are continuing to move north particularly in the West.
48-Hour rainfall forecasts from the same three models.
The formation you see closely matches the current jet-stream pattern. Storms over Iberia, left, are powered by the cold air coming down on the far left turning 180 degrees off Morroco.
The plume on the right which is coming up across the Sahara is still turning sharp right once it arrives over the Mediterranean and heading east south east.
Here we see the transit of more air-born moisture, to the Horn & sourced in South East Asia & the Bay of Bengal.
A view of today over the Horn and the monsoon belt to the West, with today's #ArabianStorms top right.
The Netherlands was the epicenter of some epic storms today and here's a spectacular video from @Arab_Storms. And there is much more #EuropeBigWet yet to come.
Tonight's Arabian Storms at sunset. Winds appear to have stepped up and changed direction, the form of the storms is more similar to what we have seen in April and May.
And finally, June 18th 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.
Rainfall on the Arabian Peninsula looks set to continue.
As we enter a moment of reflection following the death of Nasrallah, the impetus of the peace effort to resolve this crisis has now moved to the Arab States and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The second major player in this new phase of this conflict resolution issue is the United Nations, which is - thanks to this year old war against mostly civilians - now facing an unprecedented crisis.
A crisis in global confidence.
It is apparent to anyone or nation- who has eyes to see or ears to listen - clear that the U.N. System has completely failed. And as a result the UN System itself is now on trial.
In other words. The Post WWII Western Nation dominated « Rules Based Order » is now itself on trial in the global court of public opinion.
In Gaza, and Lebanon, and now in New York it has very clearly failed.
(/1 of several) VIDEO THREAD:
Why does the Israel lobby still exist? with Ilan Pappé via @YouTube
History - this @ Electronic Intifada interview with preeminent 20th and 21st Century Israeli Conflics Historian Ilan Pappé is 2 months old , but it remains super relevant as a starting point. Patience is required but it is well worth it.
It focuses on the role of the Israeli Lobbies, particularly in the UK and the U.S. and includes specific exemplar discussions of on
- Senator Fullbright vs the U.S. Israel Lobby I.e. AIPAC
- Jeremy Corbyn vs The UK Israel Lobby (2017 to 2019)
(/2) The Looming Catastrophe in the Middle East (w/ Gideon Levy) | Chris Hedges Interview.
Gideon Levy’s discussion here is contemporaneous and also based on a new book. His prognosis of the corrupt state of Israeli politics and the international response is not at all positive.
I.E. they have now run out of options. And Netanyahu is now in a bind.
If Netanyahu / Israel has more tricks up its sleeve to address this remains to be seen.
But the overall construction here following Nasrallah’s remarks is pretty clear and it looks like Israel is not in a position to invade Lebanon. If they were they would have done so yesterday or the day before.
This is helpful to the Biden Administration I’d argue.
Hezbollah’s unambiguous response saying that they will only stop attacks on the northern front if there is a ceasefire in Gaza is Chrystal clear.
And this is what the American Administration also wants.
So perhaps we will see something more demonstrative. Firing missiles into the sea or the desert would be unfortunate for the fishes and camels. But it may allow the Axis to make their point without leading to a regional war that could so easily spiral completely out of control. /2
Alternatively, far better, and perhaps more effective as a prelude would be a united Arabic diplomatic response with a new peace proposal.
The U.S. is clocked out for the election and such a move could potentially lower the temperature and assist with the ultimate goal. /3
National Harris vs Trump Polls (reverse chronological order)
note: He’s only ahead in one poll since September 11th (so FOX’s desperate flag hugging effort had zero impact) and in that one poll only by 2 points whereas Harris has several 4-5 point margins.
2/2
And if you go back to late August he’s only ahead in four polls. In three of them by 1 point and the other by just 2. All of them statistical ties.
Frankly the only way I can think of to interpret this is that Israel is seeking to draw the U.S. Armada which is currently approaching Israel to establish a defensive shield over Israel into a wider war.
Yesterday was the Jewish Shabbat. Today is the Christian Sabbath. This is Netanyahu’s last stand, yet another attempt to start a regional war with the objective of dragging the U.S. into the war with Iran that he has been trying to engineer for the last few months.
He knows that a Kamala Harris Presidency will possibly be less cautious. He is concerned that a progressive administration in the White House will not tolerate his approach to Israeli security, the war he is currently waging and the long-term extremist right wing objective of driving all Palestinians out of Israel.
But to secure the space for this outcome he Israel needs a regional war with U.S. involvement to degrade Hezbollah and Iranian military capacity.
In the short term here and now he needs to blow up the talks in Cairo which are now on the threshold it seems of delivering a ceasefire agreement.
All parties to this conflict and the international community more broadly need to continue to calibrate their responses to not give him what he wants.
This morning’s events should be allowed to die down, and absent a major escalation by Hezbollah and Iran they should do so readily.
The world know knows who is responsible for continuing this horror show. The U.S. and Israel.
This morning when the U.S. wakes up it should be helped to see once again the stark reality here. That Israel under Netanyahu has become a rogue state, threatening the peace of the entire Middle East, and threatening to drag U.S. airmen and soldiers into a war that no-one sane in either the U.S., Europe, or indeed anyone on the planet wants.
Maintaining self control at this moment is therefore vital. And Netanyahu will then lose. He will not get his regional war and Israel will have to agree to a ceasefire.youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
Meanwhile…
/2 Israeli bombardments in Gaza kill several as polio vaccination continues... … via @YouTube
/3 & perhaps most significantly a mass mobilisation for a ceasefire has now become a General Strike.
« A major nationwide strike is now underway across Israel.
The largest trade union says it wants to pressure the government of Benjamin Netanyahu into signing a Gaza ceasefire and captive release deal with Hamas.
The action was called after the bodies of six Israeli captives were recovered from a tunnel in southern Gaza on Saturday.
Hamas has blamed Israeli air strikes for the deaths of those six captives whose bodies were recovered on Saturday.
Israel says they were found with bullet wounds.
Dozens of people attended a vigil for one of the six, Israeli-American Hersh Goldberg-Polin.
Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich is trying to halt the general strike.
He's asked the attorney general to impose a ban - saying the industrial action will have significant economic consequences.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid has called for a complete government shutdown.
Udi Goren, a member of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, spoke to Al Jazeera from the Israeli Knesset in West Jerusalem, where the group has been speaking to parliament members amid an ongoing general strike calling on Netanyahu to reach a deal with Hamas for the release of the remaining captives. »