Thread by @Ex_Trac

1. Last night, #IS published a new statement from its spokesman Abu Hamza al-Qurashi in which, among other things, he lauded the recent exploits of #ISWAP—#IS’s West Africa Province—in #Nigeria, alluding to Abubakar #Shekau's group, #JAS, as "khawarij."

2. #Qurashi said #IS was “pleased to hear the news of the bay’a” of former #Shekau followers.

This wasn't rhetoric. In the last two weeks, #ISWAP has been claiming attacks in parts of Borno in which it was previously inactive, places in which #JAS had previously been dominant.

3. After its victory over #JAS in May, many #JAS fighters joined #ISWAP, which consolidated these gains and began launching attacks in former #JAS areas quicker than many had anticipated it would.

The first such attack took place on 13 June southeast of #Maiduguri, near #Bama.

4. In the #Bama attack, #ISWAP fighters (likely #JAS defectors) assaulted a local #NA base. The photo-report published after the attack featured adolescent fighters, with one image showing a teen posing in front of the burning barracks.

5. That attack was followed by a number of other #ISWAP assaults in former #JAS areas—in #Kwamdi (15 June), #Kumshe (19 June), #Konduga (20 June), and #Mayanti (21 June).

To reiterate, these were not areas in which #ISWAP was active prior to this month.

6. To be sure, not all of #JAS has defected. At least one group in #Chad|ian and #Niger|ien parts of Lake Chad continues to operate separately.

That said, in a video last week it appealed directly to #IS’s leadership to mediate between it, other #JAS elements, and #ISWAP.

7. At ExTrac, we are tracking these dynamics closely.

If you’d like to know more about our reporting, visit extrac.io or email [e-mail].