Thread by @althecat

Heavy rains fell over the Horn of Africa today as the world turns its attention towards the area, following a tumultuous week since the election last Monday.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #HornOfAfrica #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follow.

The big picture tonight at sundown. Europe, the Sahara North Africa the Horn and the Middle East. #AllInThisTogether

Today's North Africa 10-Day rainfall forecasts. The West African Monsoon continues to run strong.

And 48 hour forecasts from the same four computer models. GFS, ECMWF, KMA and CMC.

And two long range forecasts, the 16 day GFS and 12 day KMA.

A satellite image from this morning of the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa. As it's in the morning the storms have yet to get going.

And here we see the storms from just a moment ago as the sun begins to set.

Today's June 29th 10-Day accumulated rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica including #Ethiopia, #Sudan, #Yemen #Somaliland, #Somalia and parts of #SouthSudan. The rains over the #Abbay are particularly strong this evening.

And 48 hour rainfall forecasts from the same three models, which as you can see are now in close alignment.

The consistent pattern of unseasonable rainfall on the Arabian Peninsula in June is also being maintained, once again with #ArabianStorms in #Oman, #Yemen and #SaudiArabia.

Also included here are #ArabianStorm snapshots for 28th, 27th and 26th June.

The crazy weather events experienced on the #ArabianPeninsula back in April and May are now occuring in Europe with the #EuropeBigWet. Here is some amazing hail in France from @Arab_Storms

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1409878239749840903?s=20

And from Germany....

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1409593141586444291?s=20

Here a severe thunderstorm tore the roof off a building in Moscow yesterday.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1409560861035749376?s=20

And blew up a substation.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1409562673524531200?s=20

And torential rainfall events are also ongoing in the Kingdom of #SaudiArabia.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1409496379639185409?s=20

10-Day June 29th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

48 Hour June 29th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

And finally, June 29th, 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.

الله أعلم

And for a rounded picture of the entire greater region. Zero hour simulation data from the GFS.

1. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
2. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high) which appear to be the most useful parameters.
3. Precipitable water (potential rain + energy)

/ENDS

@Threadreaderapp unroll