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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Jul 4, 2021 • 25 tweets • 24 min read • Read on X
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2 recent #pictures on day 5 of the 2021 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam #GERD filling.

1. Satellite image this morning.
2 Date unknown, posted on Twitter today.

Meanwhile it looks as if the #HOA rain is about to get heavier. Today's forecasts follow.
Today's big picture hasn't changed much.
TS #Elsa can still be seen bottom left, she will be crossing Cuba later today.
Bottom right we see storms over #Ethiopia and #Yemen.
In Europe the #EuropeBigWet continues with North Atlantic weather moving in from West.
This @NASA Modis satellite image series zooms in from...

1. The entire Nile
2. Ethiopia
3. #Abbay basin. Can you spot the #GERD?
4. Tigray.
@NASA Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 4th through July 15th.

[NOTE: The KMA model data feed to @weathermodels_
seems to be down today.]
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and models.

In all forecasts short and long range we now see rainfall pushing deep into northern areas in the Sahel.
Here we see a six hour animation of a satellite view of today's cloud activity over Ethiopia. [Src. @zoom_earth]
@zoom_earth Zooming out we can see the Arabian Sea and the source of the Monsoon winds as well as storm activity building up in Yemen.
@zoom_earth Today's July 4th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea. All model forecasts are now both strong and stable. [KMA not included.]
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same two models. The big rainy season is now underway.

The final image shows rainfall today up to 9pm local time as estimated from satellite imagery [Src. @Meteoblue]
This animation show's today's #ArabianStorms and today we also have some eyewitness videos courtesy of @Arab_Storms.
A Jazan lightning strike #SaudiArabia
Water flowing off the mountains in #Oman
And an enthusiastic fellow celebrating the rain with his head in #SaudiArabia.
10-Day July 3rd, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour July 4th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, UK Met and ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
As always the final rainfall forecasts are long range July 4th forecasts. Today we have 16-day (GFS) and 360hour (EPS ensemble model) and 16-day (GEFS ensemble model) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East..
الله أعلم
...Threadfix...
& a rounded picture of the hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data from the GFS.

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)
Finally in today's thread I will return to a matter raised yesterday. I.E. that a significant increase in monsoon activity over the Indian Ocean next week may lead to significant step up in rainfall over the #HOA this time next week.
In yesterday's thread I looked only at the GFS model looking forward at the Indian monsoon. The three images here are from the ECMWF model and they confirm the sequence. By July 14th the area of monsoon level atmosphere will have reached Ethiopia.
These animations which show July 11th to 14th show the arrival of the tropical level moisture in Ethiopia
Above we have the European @ECMWF model forecast. And here the CMC (Canadian) model.
And this model, the Australian ACG model also shows the same thing, which makes four major weather models all in agreement that a significant change will take place next weekend which could lead to a step-up in the intensity of rainfall.
We shall see what that impact looks like next week. But it stands to reason that in order for this flow profile for the Nile to be met, significantly more rain will need to fall.
Watch this space....

/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 17
The first speaker in this star studded panel here is sober clear and damning.

“… featuring Mustafa Barghouti, Mads Gilbert, Ilan Pappe, and Ingrid Fiskaa – discusses and critically explores three key areas: the present moment where Gaza remains under constant genocidal attack from Israel; the so-called “legitimacy” of the rules-based order (including but not limited to international law) that’s supposed to prevent or stop such violence; and the future of rebuilding Gaza in a way that actually honours the hopes, dreams and aspirations of the Palestinian people.”

The panel is moderated by Paul Salvatori, senior producer and presenter at TRT World.

Oslo Panel for Palestine youtu.be/nwCgY9auyuw?si… via @YouTube
As Christmas and the New Year approach, reflection, both self and outward looking are part of the zeitgeist for the faithful throughout the world.

As it stands this Christmas in Bethlehem will be the “second Christmas during an ongoing Genocide”. Placed in quote marks here because it seems hard to reconcile with reality.

How can this still be continuing?

How is it that the @Statedept even now - 15 months after October 7th and more recently the defeat of both Hezbollah and Assad - is still mostly saying “Israel has a right to defend itself. As massacres of 50-80 Gaza civilians - predominantly women and children - continue to occur on a daily basis.
Could there at least be a Christmas and New Years Truce? A brief silencing of the guns, a break from the endless massacre of innocents via fire-from-the-sky, as if Gaza were now Mordor.

It is certainly already nearly as desolate.

Someone needs to ask Bibi Netanyahu who is unusually and nearly singularly responsibility for all of this. WHEN AND HOW DOES THIS END?
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 16
There is a new chapter on the story of Mosab Hassan Yousef.

This is the original production of this. But he will soon be known far better than he was when Chris Cuomo brought his story to life here back in December 2023 at the outset of the war, in the wake of January 7th.

Hamas Founder's Son Turned Israeli Spy - Mosab Hassan Yousef, "The Green... youtu.be/llJxz1pAlQQ?si… via @YouTube
“Hamas’s Aspiration is global”

“The Muslim Brotherhood is Here in the United States.”

For clarification Mosab Hassan is unquestionably completely genuine and in is views, and like me he is a pacifist when it comes to saving human life from conflict. And this as he articulates very very clearly remains his view.

And for this reason - notwithstanding the fact that this latest broadcast is extremely triggering, and will likely soon become very controversial, is also very important.Image
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The target of this messaging is Americans. Not me.

And probably not you, even though a large portion of my followers are in the U.S.
Read 19 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 11
Correction I meant to say here:

“The Neighbours & friends of Syria, and international solidarity movements, and all people of good consciousness need to develop a counter strategy to the ongoing U.S-Israel War Drumming - that is now clearly moving U.S. towards a 2003 repeat of the 2nd Gulf War.”

I would proscribe peaceful non-violence myself.
scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0304…
“The media's role in a democratic society in general is to provide the public with an informed basis upon which they can exercise their democratic rights to lobby, and express their views on what should happen to their elected representatives. And nothing changes during wartime.
When measured by this standard I would conclude that the media both here in New Zealand and everywhere else in the Western World – with the exception of the Internet – has failed spectacularly to do its job.”

- Tuesday, 29 April 2003, 3:00 pm
Read 10 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 9
The desire of Genocide -Pro clueless highly paid American pundits to misrepresent current historical events as they unfold in real time in the global real-Politik is far from surprising, but this take from Bill Kristol is about as daft as it is possible to be.

Syria’s HTS & Türkiye led coup which has toppled Assad cane out of the blue. It was not an American-Israeli plot but rather a deftly delivered victory for justice that will have the effect of heading off the U.S. clash with Iran that the genocidal maniac who remains in Power in Israel, for now anyway, had planned.

This will not now be the next chapter in the story of Middle Eastern turmoil. Instead we will now see a flourishing of Middle Eastern led political reform that may finally rid the region of the power designs of the Western Powers “Great Game” who will soon become irrelevant in the region.

Thread….Image
I shall not bother to decide Kristol’s incoherent burbling except to remark that he is missing the real story here.

Arab’s just liberated Arabs in Arabia - as ought to be the case. Whether this was the clear intent of the actions and actors whose planning led up to this moment of clarity in geopolitical history is unclear, but the result is clear.

Syrians are now free. And western powers have been rendered irrelevant except to the extent that they are able to render assistance to the new Free Arab State of Syria in coming months and years. /2
The shear speed with which the events unfolded in Syria was and remains breathtaking. As if perhaps divinely directed.

Even Netanyahu’s response - to bomb Damascus- whilst monstrous in both it’s paranoia and execution is positive, in that it has now ruled Israel completely out of the process of rebuilding Syria which will soon commence.

Netanyahu openly proclaimed his messianic ambition in New York to a Nearly empty UNGA assembly meeting hall, his vision of a greater Israel that included Syria. And no doubt he remains enthralled to these ideas. But by bombing Damascus he just ruled himself out as a partner for peace in the region. /3
Read 11 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 4
Excellent edition of @France24_en The debate.

If you listen/watch you will doubtless come to the conclusion that nobody knows for sure:

1. What exactly has happened in Syria, who backed who…

2. nor what the end game in this HTS launched renewed Civil War in Syria will look like.

3. But there are a lot of interesting theories.

Domino effect? Assad's allies stretched thin as Syrian rebels pounce • F... youtu.be/ZZN1nek4aTg?si… via @YouTube
From my perspective a useful rubric to analyse this is who benefits from this.

The penultimate French speaker - before the American who closed (presumably with a conventional foggy bottom perspective - I.E pro Israel when asked by Picard who is responsible gave I think the clearest answer.

“Ask the Americans” then pointed out that this development comes hot on top of the ceasefire in Lebanon which is far from secure.Image
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The debate is exactly that and all speakers are experts in different aspects of the Syrian Question and the players. Which include.

- the rebel group whose lightning speed taking of Aleppo HTS/formerly Al Nusra over the last 4 days initiated this new crisis currently in the north of Syria but which HTS and other anti Assad forces in Syria appear to be intent on heading to Damascus to displace Assad.

Note: As you can see here (map) Damascus is just north of due east of the Israel-Lebanon border south east of Beirut & very close to Israel. (Check out the 1967 war & Angolan Heights to find out why)Image
Read 14 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 3
The war crimes attorney, French, based in Lyon, who lodged the first war crimes complaint against Netanyahu was Giles Devers.

He recently died.

The complaint was based on the #GreatMarchOfReturn IDF operations during which 223 Palestinians were shot
The protests:

30 March 2018 – 27 December 2019
(1 year, 8 months, 3 weeks and 6 days)

…. peaceful. Young people gathered on the border and threw stones at snipers on defensive mounds above the protest area. A varying number of protestors were shot each day. including medics and members of the media.

The protests reached their zenith when Trump was present in Jerusalem for the opening of a U.S. embassy there during his first term as President.

Time magazine coverage time.com/longform/gaza-…Image
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Forensic evidence was collected for the prosecution case by a team from Gaza’s Ministry of Health - and supervised by my colleague, Kiwi Journalist Julie Webb Pullman.

And this evidence and formed the substance of the first complaint laid by Advocat Giles Devers of “War Crimes” against Israel’s Govt and the IDF.
Read 9 tweets

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