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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Jul 4, 2021 • 25 tweets • 24 min read • Read on X
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2 recent #pictures on day 5 of the 2021 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam #GERD filling.

1. Satellite image this morning.
2 Date unknown, posted on Twitter today.

Meanwhile it looks as if the #HOA rain is about to get heavier. Today's forecasts follow.
Today's big picture hasn't changed much.
TS #Elsa can still be seen bottom left, she will be crossing Cuba later today.
Bottom right we see storms over #Ethiopia and #Yemen.
In Europe the #EuropeBigWet continues with North Atlantic weather moving in from West.
This @NASA Modis satellite image series zooms in from...

1. The entire Nile
2. Ethiopia
3. #Abbay basin. Can you spot the #GERD?
4. Tigray.
@NASA Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 4th through July 15th.

[NOTE: The KMA model data feed to @weathermodels_
seems to be down today.]
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and models.

In all forecasts short and long range we now see rainfall pushing deep into northern areas in the Sahel.
Here we see a six hour animation of a satellite view of today's cloud activity over Ethiopia. [Src. @zoom_earth]
@zoom_earth Zooming out we can see the Arabian Sea and the source of the Monsoon winds as well as storm activity building up in Yemen.
@zoom_earth Today's July 4th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea. All model forecasts are now both strong and stable. [KMA not included.]
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same two models. The big rainy season is now underway.

The final image shows rainfall today up to 9pm local time as estimated from satellite imagery [Src. @Meteoblue]
This animation show's today's #ArabianStorms and today we also have some eyewitness videos courtesy of @Arab_Storms.
A Jazan lightning strike #SaudiArabia
Water flowing off the mountains in #Oman
And an enthusiastic fellow celebrating the rain with his head in #SaudiArabia.
10-Day July 3rd, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour July 4th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, UK Met and ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
As always the final rainfall forecasts are long range July 4th forecasts. Today we have 16-day (GFS) and 360hour (EPS ensemble model) and 16-day (GEFS ensemble model) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East..
الله أعلم
...Threadfix...
& a rounded picture of the hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data from the GFS.

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)
Finally in today's thread I will return to a matter raised yesterday. I.E. that a significant increase in monsoon activity over the Indian Ocean next week may lead to significant step up in rainfall over the #HOA this time next week.
In yesterday's thread I looked only at the GFS model looking forward at the Indian monsoon. The three images here are from the ECMWF model and they confirm the sequence. By July 14th the area of monsoon level atmosphere will have reached Ethiopia.
These animations which show July 11th to 14th show the arrival of the tropical level moisture in Ethiopia
Above we have the European @ECMWF model forecast. And here the CMC (Canadian) model.
And this model, the Australian ACG model also shows the same thing, which makes four major weather models all in agreement that a significant change will take place next weekend which could lead to a step-up in the intensity of rainfall.
We shall see what that impact looks like next week. But it stands to reason that in order for this flow profile for the Nile to be met, significantly more rain will need to fall.
Watch this space....

/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 12
This interview with working class Uk financial markets savant Gary Stevenson - who has just published an autobiography - is seriously terrifying. He now has a @YouTube channel it seems and I’ll post a link shortly.

James O'Brien meets Gary Stevenson | LBC via @YouTube
His prognosis for the collapse of social democratic nation state finances due to the very sharp rise in income distribution inequality in the UK is horrific.

The consequences of unfettered transfers of money over decades due to neoliberal economics initially and more recently quantitative easing driven transfers of wealth from the middle class to the top 5% of the population is the cause of his concern.

It’s very hard to imagine what can be done politically to rebalance this.

Thomas Piketty’s thesis which among other things warned about all of this based on long term historical analysis of wealth inequality appears to be colliding with Western Civilisation in a manner that threatens the very foundations of that civilisation.
Gary’s YouTube channel which addresses all this is here.

Understand The Economy via @YouTubeyoutube.com/playlist?list=…
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 9
Well this was actually pretty good… very little crazy right wing stuff - none in fact - some light criticism of wokeness and a consensus that Hitler was a socialist or communist dictator not a rightwing liberal fascist - mercifully no discussion of Greenland Panama or Canada

The bit at the end was actually quite nice and agreement about ending the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Importantly and probably deliberately there was very little to zero overt electioneering - a little bit of criticism of Weidel’s Spitzencandidat competition from Weidle but nothing extreme.

So nothing imo that could be seen as being election interference IMO - nor any reason for the DSA to be concerned or to get involved.

I didn’t even hear any particularly overt endorsement that went beyond that you might hear in passing in a podcast interview.

It ended with a discussion of mars - Elon’s favourite subject of conversation - which was quite interesting including a reference to the Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy series and Douglas Adams.
From Weidel’s point of view though there was a lot of positive moderate exposure of her party and probably around 200k + listeners. Which may give her a bounce in the polls.

Also the final segment talking about space was quite delightful and genuine and portrayed the AFD Leader in a positive light.

And I’d say the two of them have both found a new friend.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 8
Comedians vs Trump and Elon /1

Trump Ratchets Up Call to Annex Canada & Greenland as Trudeau Says He'll... via @YouTube
Comedians vs Trump & Elon /2
Zuck, Meta fact checking, McDonald’s, and Amazon Cozy Up To Trump, Dropping Fact-Checkers & their integrity. via @YouTube
@YouTube Comedians vs Trump & Elon /3

SETH Meyers - Trump's Insane Press Conference About Greenland, Jack Smith, Gulf of Mex... via @YouTube
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 5
This is an update thread on this OCCRP story on @StateDept and @USAID funding for several large investigative journalism projects which has had a lot of downstream impacts it seems. Especially in Europe,

The underlying original story about govt funding for investigative journalism projects was initially flagged by @ryangrim.

This organisation - OCCRP that not many people seemed to have been aware of - was responsible for a series of outstanding investigative journalism consortia projects including the Panama papers.
This is a leaked rough cut of the NDR (German public broadcaster north west Germany) investigation into what happened With the OCCRP story.

It was never officially published but was recently leaked publicly by Wikileaks.

dalek.zone/w/xjUjomMZxRCv…
With the benefit of hindsight arguably Wikileaks ought to be the international organisation that coordinates these large investigative consortia, though it’s not clear that they want to do so.

What is clear from the fallout from all of this is that the system that was in place for running these consortia is no longer fit for purpose.
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 2
So @elonmusk has definitely opened the doors it seems to Pandora’s box.
He may have jumped the gun a little. But he has his reasons.

Germany & Magdeburg.

But the fuse was arguably lit when the CIA and FBI Commandeered Jack Dorsey’s Twitter for its own purposes.

I don’t think we are going back.

This is the new normal.
Welcome to the era of Trump.

This is what happens when you have a VERY Messy transition of power in the Global Hegemony.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 21, 2024
This video is about the work done by the “terrorist” who drove through the Magdeburg Christmas Market tonight at high speed killing injuring around 100 people.

How does a doctor practicing as a psychiatrist go from being a women’s rights defender focussed on Assisting Islamic women to escape an oppressive culture to being a multi murderer in his adopted country.

Meet @DrTalebJawad

A very unusual terrorist.
A good starting point for those interested in getting closer to the truth about what happened tonight is to visit @DrTalebJawad ‘s Twitter profile and look at his recent messages before the account gets locked.

It is immediately apparent that this is not your normal Islamic terrorist, in fact it quickly becomes apparent from his tweets that he was likely suffering from a psychotic break or something similar before he committed the horrific act of terrorism in Magdeburg.Image
Image
Image
Image
This incident took place in Magdeburg a city relatively near to where I am currently in Eastern Germany. It was fairly late evening. But the news exploded locally very quickly on Twitter.

And the initial speculation was of course that the terrorist was Islamic and that it was another planned terror attack.

At this point several hours later however it looks like the perpetrator was having an accrue psychological break.
Read 11 tweets

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