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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Jul 4, 2021 • 25 tweets • 24 min read • Read on X
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2 recent #pictures on day 5 of the 2021 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam #GERD filling.

1. Satellite image this morning.
2 Date unknown, posted on Twitter today.

Meanwhile it looks as if the #HOA rain is about to get heavier. Today's forecasts follow.
Today's big picture hasn't changed much.
TS #Elsa can still be seen bottom left, she will be crossing Cuba later today.
Bottom right we see storms over #Ethiopia and #Yemen.
In Europe the #EuropeBigWet continues with North Atlantic weather moving in from West.
This @NASA Modis satellite image series zooms in from...

1. The entire Nile
2. Ethiopia
3. #Abbay basin. Can you spot the #GERD?
4. Tigray.
@NASA Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 4th through July 15th.

[NOTE: The KMA model data feed to @weathermodels_
seems to be down today.]
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and models.

In all forecasts short and long range we now see rainfall pushing deep into northern areas in the Sahel.
Here we see a six hour animation of a satellite view of today's cloud activity over Ethiopia. [Src. @zoom_earth]
@zoom_earth Zooming out we can see the Arabian Sea and the source of the Monsoon winds as well as storm activity building up in Yemen.
@zoom_earth Today's July 4th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea. All model forecasts are now both strong and stable. [KMA not included.]
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same two models. The big rainy season is now underway.

The final image shows rainfall today up to 9pm local time as estimated from satellite imagery [Src. @Meteoblue]
This animation show's today's #ArabianStorms and today we also have some eyewitness videos courtesy of @Arab_Storms.
A Jazan lightning strike #SaudiArabia
Water flowing off the mountains in #Oman
And an enthusiastic fellow celebrating the rain with his head in #SaudiArabia.
10-Day July 3rd, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour July 4th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, UK Met and ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
As always the final rainfall forecasts are long range July 4th forecasts. Today we have 16-day (GFS) and 360hour (EPS ensemble model) and 16-day (GEFS ensemble model) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East..
الله أعلم
...Threadfix...
& a rounded picture of the hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data from the GFS.

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)
Finally in today's thread I will return to a matter raised yesterday. I.E. that a significant increase in monsoon activity over the Indian Ocean next week may lead to significant step up in rainfall over the #HOA this time next week.
In yesterday's thread I looked only at the GFS model looking forward at the Indian monsoon. The three images here are from the ECMWF model and they confirm the sequence. By July 14th the area of monsoon level atmosphere will have reached Ethiopia.
These animations which show July 11th to 14th show the arrival of the tropical level moisture in Ethiopia
Above we have the European @ECMWF model forecast. And here the CMC (Canadian) model.
And this model, the Australian ACG model also shows the same thing, which makes four major weather models all in agreement that a significant change will take place next weekend which could lead to a step-up in the intensity of rainfall.
We shall see what that impact looks like next week. But it stands to reason that in order for this flow profile for the Nile to be met, significantly more rain will need to fall.
Watch this space....

/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.

open.spotify.com/episode/3YV0SU…
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:

1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media.
2. This is not going to change any time soon.
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.

This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 22
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.

All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.Image
Image
Image
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Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.

I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.Image
Image
But the this bit is weird.

The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.

I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.
Read 15 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 12
This interview with working class Uk financial markets savant Gary Stevenson - who has just published an autobiography - is seriously terrifying. He now has a @YouTube channel it seems and I’ll post a link shortly.

James O'Brien meets Gary Stevenson | LBC via @YouTube
His prognosis for the collapse of social democratic nation state finances due to the very sharp rise in income distribution inequality in the UK is horrific.

The consequences of unfettered transfers of money over decades due to neoliberal economics initially and more recently quantitative easing driven transfers of wealth from the middle class to the top 5% of the population is the cause of his concern.

It’s very hard to imagine what can be done politically to rebalance this.

Thomas Piketty’s thesis which among other things warned about all of this based on long term historical analysis of wealth inequality appears to be colliding with Western Civilisation in a manner that threatens the very foundations of that civilisation.
Gary’s YouTube channel which addresses all this is here.

Understand The Economy via @YouTubeyoutube.com/playlist?list=…
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 9
Well this was actually pretty good… very little crazy right wing stuff - none in fact - some light criticism of wokeness and a consensus that Hitler was a socialist or communist dictator not a rightwing liberal fascist - mercifully no discussion of Greenland Panama or Canada

The bit at the end was actually quite nice and agreement about ending the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Importantly and probably deliberately there was very little to zero overt electioneering - a little bit of criticism of Weidel’s Spitzencandidat competition from Weidle but nothing extreme.

So nothing imo that could be seen as being election interference IMO - nor any reason for the DSA to be concerned or to get involved.

I didn’t even hear any particularly overt endorsement that went beyond that you might hear in passing in a podcast interview.

It ended with a discussion of mars - Elon’s favourite subject of conversation - which was quite interesting including a reference to the Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy series and Douglas Adams.
From Weidel’s point of view though there was a lot of positive moderate exposure of her party and probably around 200k + listeners. Which may give her a bounce in the polls.

Also the final segment talking about space was quite delightful and genuine and portrayed the AFD Leader in a positive light.

And I’d say the two of them have both found a new friend.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 8
Comedians vs Trump and Elon /1

Trump Ratchets Up Call to Annex Canada & Greenland as Trudeau Says He'll... via @YouTube
Comedians vs Trump & Elon /2
Zuck, Meta fact checking, McDonald’s, and Amazon Cozy Up To Trump, Dropping Fact-Checkers & their integrity. via @YouTube
@YouTube Comedians vs Trump & Elon /3

SETH Meyers - Trump's Insane Press Conference About Greenland, Jack Smith, Gulf of Mex... via @YouTube
Read 6 tweets

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