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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Jul 4, 2021 • 25 tweets • 24 min read • Read on X
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2 recent #pictures on day 5 of the 2021 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam #GERD filling.

1. Satellite image this morning.
2 Date unknown, posted on Twitter today.

Meanwhile it looks as if the #HOA rain is about to get heavier. Today's forecasts follow.
Today's big picture hasn't changed much.
TS #Elsa can still be seen bottom left, she will be crossing Cuba later today.
Bottom right we see storms over #Ethiopia and #Yemen.
In Europe the #EuropeBigWet continues with North Atlantic weather moving in from West.
This @NASA Modis satellite image series zooms in from...

1. The entire Nile
2. Ethiopia
3. #Abbay basin. Can you spot the #GERD?
4. Tigray.
@NASA Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 4th through July 15th.

[NOTE: The KMA model data feed to @weathermodels_
seems to be down today.]
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and models.

In all forecasts short and long range we now see rainfall pushing deep into northern areas in the Sahel.
Here we see a six hour animation of a satellite view of today's cloud activity over Ethiopia. [Src. @zoom_earth]
@zoom_earth Zooming out we can see the Arabian Sea and the source of the Monsoon winds as well as storm activity building up in Yemen.
@zoom_earth Today's July 4th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea. All model forecasts are now both strong and stable. [KMA not included.]
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same two models. The big rainy season is now underway.

The final image shows rainfall today up to 9pm local time as estimated from satellite imagery [Src. @Meteoblue]
This animation show's today's #ArabianStorms and today we also have some eyewitness videos courtesy of @Arab_Storms.
A Jazan lightning strike #SaudiArabia
Water flowing off the mountains in #Oman
And an enthusiastic fellow celebrating the rain with his head in #SaudiArabia.
10-Day July 3rd, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour July 4th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, UK Met and ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
As always the final rainfall forecasts are long range July 4th forecasts. Today we have 16-day (GFS) and 360hour (EPS ensemble model) and 16-day (GEFS ensemble model) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East..
الله أعلم
...Threadfix...
& a rounded picture of the hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data from the GFS.

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)
Finally in today's thread I will return to a matter raised yesterday. I.E. that a significant increase in monsoon activity over the Indian Ocean next week may lead to significant step up in rainfall over the #HOA this time next week.
In yesterday's thread I looked only at the GFS model looking forward at the Indian monsoon. The three images here are from the ECMWF model and they confirm the sequence. By July 14th the area of monsoon level atmosphere will have reached Ethiopia.
These animations which show July 11th to 14th show the arrival of the tropical level moisture in Ethiopia
Above we have the European @ECMWF model forecast. And here the CMC (Canadian) model.
And this model, the Australian ACG model also shows the same thing, which makes four major weather models all in agreement that a significant change will take place next weekend which could lead to a step-up in the intensity of rainfall.
We shall see what that impact looks like next week. But it stands to reason that in order for this flow profile for the Nile to be met, significantly more rain will need to fall.
Watch this space....

/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 18
COP29 Erasure – COP29 Media Center Crippled scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2411…
The official video record of COP29 is being erased every 12 hours & nobody here knows
The Media Center for UNFCCC COP meetings was transformed in 2021 in Glasgow during the UK Presidency of the COP. The new high tech set up has cameras in all official meeting places recording the events in full. The content from this system is then made available to media in the MEDIA Center via the IBC (Interational Broadcast Center) platform.
The center also has desks for several hundred journalists to work during the COP.
The first signs came on Thursday day four (14 November 2024) of COP29 last week during the first week of the COP. Ordinarily reporters attending COPs can request access to get files downloaded through a media desk. This can be useful to extract quotes or report on events that we are unable to attend due to timetable clashes etc.
Read 10 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 12
The wrong headed and frankly selfish approach of NZME and STUFF on the issue of the "Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill" [see: mch.govt.nz/our-work/broad…] is deeply problematic for independent and digital native publishing companies such as @Scoop.

Part 1 of my thoughts on the subject can be found here.

"Google's Support For Democracy And Media In NZ" scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2411…
Other medium sized digital native publications including @NewsroomNZ and @TheSpinoffTV are in a similar position to us - as well as a large group of smaller independent digital and print publications across New Zealand.
.@Google has made it very clear to the Government that it will withdraw its support for NZ media companies should this Bill pass. It considers the proposal to be a link tax and that the precedent that this would create for how the internet works globally is something that it cannot accept. As this is a global policy issue it will not back down on this.
Read 11 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Nov 5
The final pre-election comedy roasts of @realDonaldTrump VIDEO-THREAD

/1 Jimmy Kimmel

Trump Ratchets Up Rhetoric, Epstein Bombshells Dropped & Jimmy's Electio... via @YouTube
/2 Stephen Colbert

Senior Women Back Harris In Iowa | America's Fresh Start | Trump vs. The... via @YouTube
@YouTube John Oliver on with Stephen Colbert.

The Weirdest Moments Of John Oliver's 11 Seasons Hosting "Last Week Toni... via @YouTube
Read 14 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 26
Who owns RCP politics?

Because…

it’s headline arithmetic system is borked

259 to 269 electoral votes ain’t possible Image
That said at the moment This is now Trump’s election to lose in the polling. And the turning point was September 30th. Image
What happened on September 30th?

A lot of really bad shit in Gaza. And through most of October.

So it looks like if Kamala Harris loses the election it is because of Democratic Party support for Israel’s Genocide. Image
Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 26
U.S. warns Tehran against retaliation after Israeli strikes in Iran Haaretz haaretz.com/us-news/2024-1…
The Biden administration has told Tehran through an intermediary that it should avoid responding to the Israeli strikes in Iran on Friday and allow the U.S. to bring an end to the ongoing cycle of hostilities between the nations,

The messages were relayed through a third-party country that maintains diplomatic relations with Iran, indicating that the U.S. would increase its efforts in the coming days to achieve an agreement to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon. An Iranian response to the strike, the message warned, would hinder the American diplomatic efforts in the region.

Since the start of the Israeli strikes in Iran on Friday night, the U.S. administration has been signaling that this move aligns with President Biden's requests to Israel to target only military sites, rather than oil production facilities or Iran's nuclear program.

In the weeks leading up to the strike, Biden provided Israel with a ballistic missile defense system, while also publicly opposing an Israeli strike that would harm Iran's oil industry, due to concerns that such an action would destabilize oil markets and increase global energy prices.

A senior administration official said Biden encouraged "Prime Minister [Netanyahu] to design a response that served to deter further attacks in Israel while reducing risk of further escalation."

The administration clarified that the U.S. did not participate in the Israeli strike, but it's warning to Iran included a message that an Iranian response against Israel might lead to direct U.S. involvement in the conflict.

"Should Iran choose to respond, we are fully prepared to once again defend against any attack ... If Iran chooses to respond once again, we will be ready, and there will be consequences for Iran once again," a senior administration official said. "This should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran."

In the days leading up to the IDF offensive, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Middle Eastin an effort to revive negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages held there.

The French government convened an international conference in Paris on the war in Lebanon, aiming to build a global consensus for ending the conflict based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701. France also sent a direct message to Iran, urging it to avoid responding to the Israeli strike to avoid disrupting these efforts.
… continues.
The Americans are currently examining two possible deals regarding Gaza. One option is a "small deal" under which a single-digit number of hostages held by Hamas would be released, and Israel would announce a two-week ceasefire in the region. It remains unclear if this deal would include the release of a certain number of Palestinian prisoners. The goal of this deal would be to lay the groundwork for a larger agreement, with precise details to be negotiated during the limited cease-fire, ultimately leading to the release of all hostages and an end to the war.

Meanwhile, a more extensive deal is also being considered, one that would involve the release of all hostages, an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and an end to the war. This option currently appears less likely and is expected to face strong opposition from Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition partners from the far-right parties – Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Both ministers have voiced opposition to reopening negotiations for a hostage deal and expressed disapproval in security cabinet discussions of even a smaller deal that would include a temporary cease-fire. The U.S. administration is aware of their opposition but hopes that if Hamas agrees to one of the proposals, public pressure in Israel might compel the government to agree to the deal.

/ends @threadreaderapp unroll
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 26
Video Thread: Israel-Gaza-Lebanon Security Crisis.

This post Israeli calibrated retaliation on Iran for its attacks during the height of this crisis (attacks by Iran also very calibrated) opens the Overton Window for a resolution of the entire post, October 7th Hamas Attack,initiated crisis.

It also shows considerable diplomatic pressure - possibly the most intense so far- was applied on Israel by the U.S to secure this result.

youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…

The first video is from @AJEnglish’s flagship Inside Story breaking news service and was published yesterday, before last nights very calibrated Israeli response by Israel over night. One which has not escalated the crisis.

It addresses divided European policy positions on the issue of an arms embargo on Israel - Spain-France (yes) vs Germany Netherlands. Other nations are also split and several have formally announced recognition of Palestine.

[NB: The UK is now out of Europe and no longer has a formal influence in Brussels EU institutional deliberations .]
🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0… via @YouTube

@AJEnglish’s love coverage of the attack is still watchable and begins roughly one hour ago on the current live stream.

Aljazeera ought to publish this full live stream as it is outstanding.

The Inside Story episode mentioned above appears to precede the attacks based on initial remarks from participants. It should be available on demand on YouTube Shortly.

The conclusion we can draw from this is that U.S. public and private diplomacy around this was extremely deftly managed and choreographed.

And this is therefore the best opportunity to end this war since it started. Israel may have even agreed on a communications strategy going forward on this, however implausible this suggestion may seem.
Correction: The @InsideStory édition on Europe mentioned in the OP was live. But I suspect recorded yesterday based on speakers referring to the attacks having not yet occurred in the opening minutes.

This is a screenshot showing the time spot of broadcast of early Aljazeera coverage of the attacks. 2.20 pm CEST Is the current time.

To view this now you can scroll back the red line to around 10 hours ago.Image
Read 10 tweets

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