Green = 1 inch of rain over the #Abo & #Abbay basins.
This satellite data based plots shows estimated rainfall over the last three days of rainfall across North Africa. #DesertRain is falling across all the Sahel. In Sudan and Chad nearly an inch in the past three days.
This one shows a close up over the horn of Africa which shows the rainfall during days 3-6 of the #GERD filling period over the #Abbay basin - where 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen.
And the full monsoon is yet to begin. The first of these maps shows PWAT (precipitable water in the atmosphere) over the Middle East as of today.
The 2nd and third images show the GFS model forecasts July 10th and July 15th.
The fortnight ahead will be very interesting.
This image shows clouds over Ethiopia as night was falling this evening.
We know, thanks to @TirusewAsefa, that the little rainy season was unusually intense in rainfall terms. We are about to find out whether Nile basin rainfall is about to push past historical highs again.
Today's big picture again shows the full North Western Hemisphere.
As this bulletin is being published TS #Elsa is crossing Cuba and bringing torrential rains.
In the north east where I am in France it is currently raining, and will do for the next week it seems.
This animation shows the Western Sahara this evening where nightfall is now consistently bringing cloud formation as the temperature falls.
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 5th through July 16th. The GFS and CMC and KMA models are now forecasting widespread rainfall over Yemen towards the end of the forecast period.
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and the Korean KMA and models.
And finally for #NorthAfrica we have the long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) forecasts - which are now remarkably well aligned.
This animation shows the first part of today's setup over the Horn of Africa. In the morning cloud is dispersed and then the new storms form over the #Abbay in the afternoon.
This animation picks up after the first one ends and shows the storms building up towards sunset.
Significant rains are now forecast for Somaliland.
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models. Over this period significant rainfall is not yet forecast for #Somaliland, but it does appear to be coming soon. #Tigray however has widespread rain.
Finally here we see the 12-day KMA forecast which shows up to 3 inches of rain falling in Western #Somaliland .
Here's a view of today's #ArabianStorms. The most spectacular storms are on the Western Coast of #Yemen and once again we see explosive convective storms in #Oman. In #SaudiArabia along the coast light rain is shown in radar data.
Courtesy of @Arab_Storms we have some new eyewitness videos. This first one shows one of those amazing storms over Oman.
As always the final rainfall forecasts are long range July 4th forecasts. Today we have 16-day GFS & GEFS models, the 12 day KMA and the 15 day EPS (Euro ensemble) model forecasts for the #MiddleEast.
^^ This16 day GFS animation is my starting point for understanding the dynamics of the North Western Hemisphere's changes.
The water comes in at the bottom right (from India and SEA) and then circles up through the Atlantic arriving where I live in France about a month later.
It's long range predictive accuracy is not great except at a large scale systemic and intensity level. In those areas it is pretty good.
If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.
And he will then have to make a decision on whether he is willing to remain in the U.S.
@realDonaldTrump Should he proceed as he has intimated that he should now be pursued by protestors everywhere he goes.
There is a lot of concern about evacuations of civilians from Gaza in the flotilla as anyone leaving may not be able to return any time soon. /2
But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
Attacks from drones on the flotilla have resumed and Israel is presumably responsible for this. It is because of this that naval vessels from Europe are now joining the flotilla to protect their citizens rights of travel in international waters. /2
The escalation appears fairly slow at present and the flotilla is still within Greek waters at present /3
The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona.
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.app
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla