Thread by @IndiaSpend

As of June 2021, India’s #COVID19 death rate could be 6.8-7.9 times higher than the official ~290 deaths/mn popn, shows a preprint by @YRDeshmukh, @countthedead, @h_tejas, @paulnovosad, @AditiBhowmick18 et al. Follow the thread to know more:

The discrepancy btwn the estimated current death rate & expected death rate as per trends in the past yrs is called ‘excess mortality’. 8 states had 22% excess mortality in the 1st #Covid19 wave and 46% excess mortality in the 2nd, compared to 2015-19

The study uses data on deaths from India's civil registration system, a @TeamCVOTER survey and govt data from public health facilities to estimate excess deaths

In 7 cities, excess deaths were 41% higher in the 1st wave and 85% higher in the 2nd wave. 3.5% of adults reported a #COVID19 death in their household in April-June 2021, the pre-print says

Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Kerala, MP & Tamil Nadu had over 460,000 excess deaths in the first 5 months of 2021, compared to a typical year, but the official #COVID19 toll accounts for only 6% of these deaths, we reported on June 26:
indiaspend.com/covid-19/death…
infogram.com/excess-deaths-…

Deaths due to #COVID19 are believed to be underreported in India because of incomplete certification, misattribution of Covid19 deaths to other chronic diseases & undercounting of deaths, especially in #rural areas due to lack of medical attention, the pre-print says

Annually, India doesn’t register about 3 million deaths and does not certify the cause of death of about 8 million people, the authors write in the pre-print

In May 2021, the government’s @NHPINDIA portal showed over 300,000 more deaths compared to May 2019, which is 2.5 times the official #Covid19 death toll for May, we reported on July 9: indiaspend.com/covid-19/death…

All excess deaths in a pandemic should matter. The lower the %age of #COVID19 deaths in excess deaths, the worse it reflects on the govt because the question arises of why did so many die, researcher @ChinmayTumbe told us in June
indiaspend.com/covid-19/death…

While death from road traffic accidents and maternal mortality decreased, death from neglected health services increased during the #COVID19 pandemic, we reported on July 9:
indiaspend.com/covid-19/death…

You can access the full pre-print on excess deaths here:
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…