It's time to do an honest review!
Historians will write and speak on the fall of #Kabul from here on, and this topic will feed conference sponsors and lecture circuit speakers around the world.
Had George Bush stayed away from Iraq, the situation today could have been different?
Saddam Hussein, a bloody tyrant that he was, at least kept the strategic balance of power in check from a sectarian perspective in the Middle East.
His removal unleashed the great schism between the rival school of thought, but, also shifted the focus away from #Afghanistan.
Iraq is reeling from the effects of the war that Blair and Bush launched based on fabricated grounds.
No WoMDs were found inside Iraq!
This was part of the greater #Neoconservative Plan based in Washington to weaken the Arab States, which could offer resistance to Israel.
Will see what lessons the Taliban will draw from the Vietnamese.
This parable drawn between the two wars is not of much relevance, because the Vietnamese, were a totally different lot!
Today, Vietnamese exports have gone beyond $200 billion?
Remarkable.
But, I don't see much of a future for any Theologian State in this day and age.
Saudi Arabia and Iran, having oil, survived by pumping black gold, regardless of what and how they politically function.
On the contrary, #Sudan FAILED and later dissipated into two states.
#Turabi
They say that mining, drilling and exploration of natural and mineral resources can completely change the geoeconomics scenario in South West Asia?
That will require a government that can promise stability and protect foreign investment.
Afghanistan is a long way away from that!
Of course, the best advice to the international community is to leave the #Taliban and #Afghanistan to themselves for the time being, as long as things don't turn bloody and human rights abuses don't occur on an industrial scale.
Let's see how they evolve on their own.
If #Cuba can evolve into what it is today, without any international support after the collapse of the USSR, then so can #Afghanistan.
A plethora of inward-looking models presents an interesting case study of how certain hermetic societies can make do even with scare wealth.
Closed Societies such as #Bulgaria, #Romania and #Yugoslavia, among Warsaw Pact Nations, were doing well right up to the end of the 1980s.
#Burma was practically isolated during the Cold War.
#North Yemen had a King who didn't allow people to step outside in the evening hours.
What I am trying to say is that we must understand the sociology of politics, economics, legality, and development from Anthropological, Cultural, Religious, Tribal, Ethno Nationalistic, and Moral Relativist Perspectives.
Like not all human beings evolve in the same way, perhaps, the identical lesson holds true for nations and civilizations.
#Barbarians have always existed in human history and mythology.
They cannot be wished away.
Interpretation is a matter of perception.
Ceausescu and his wife were not sentenced to death by the military squad because they didn't put food on the table.
I won't agree with this lousy explanation of events that unfolded in Romania.
They were punished for maintaining double standards, and leading an opulent lifestyle
if you compare the Eastern European Societies under USSR stranglehold, probably, most of them had a much higher standard of living, excellent systems of education, social care, medical care, and public transportation, compared to many African or South Asian Nations.
Of course, the new #Afghan rulers will have to choose whether they would like to imitate ->
1. Hassan Al Turabi's Sudan?
2. KSA Carrot and stick model?
3. Iranian clergy model of Ayatollahs?
4. or learn from Vietnam's Moi Doi Reforms?
I guess the fourth option would be the best.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Risk Manager(Banks,Asset Management,Insurance)

Risk Manager(Banks,Asset Management,Insurance) Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @SAH16928046

27 Aug
There is a vested commercial interest in increasing #complexity around everything.
Some scholars and intellectual propagandists would like to make things appear overly complicated because that is how they can make money.
#Complexity problem can be broken down by asking relevant straightforward questions and providing equally relevant simple-minded answers which address the root causes and understands the effects.
Read 14 tweets
26 Aug
Many students doing basic mathematics cannot distinguish between #iteration, #simulation, and #emulation as different methods of experiment design.
Even further surprised why so many students don't know the similarity and the difference between computation and calculation.
These are some of the basic mistakes which one, embedded into the mind, will work their way right into a workplace and destroy our educational foundations
For, e.g. when I was teaching Introduction to FRM Financial Risk Management, I noticed many students thought they are three different types of VaR - Value at Risk.
What they didn't realize is that VaR can be computed using different models aka methodologies, namely, HS, VCV, MCS.
Read 10 tweets
25 Aug
Did the #Irish Central Bank provide sovereign guarantees to buyers of Irish Bank Bonds and other contractual debt liabilities classified as fixed income securities, before the #GFC struck?
I asked this question after watching Professor Kelly on YouTube.
He was describing how the #Irish Central Bank allowed banks to import capital in large sums, and later lend it out to housing finance borrowers.
That created a severe #ALM Mismatch, as homes are not liquid assets.
Only after the #GFC, did the Irish and other banks realize that a run on the #deposits could lead to financial #insolvency.
#Ruin #Risk by definition is the gap between Unexpected #Loss and Expected Loss.
As the gap increases, the chances of financial ruin and #default rises too!
Read 7 tweets
25 Aug
How do you prepare for an investor relations interview at a large asset management company managing multiple funds?
Speak with confidence, dress well and above all use an impressive array of financial jargon and cutting edge terms, as many as you can, to make the employer feel comfortable.
In modern times, you should also be familiar with some data science concepts.
E.g. how data visualization tools can help the customer extract value from the research reports.
Read 8 tweets
25 Aug
What should I know about risk management for a job interview with an asset management and securities brokerage firm?
@IOSCOWIW @efc_global @MarketIntegrity @GARP_Risk
You need to know everything about Capital Markets at least.

Investment Banking and Asset Management Sector /brokerage require an exceptional understanding of debt and equity market instruments and asset classes.
Sound knowledge of derivative markets will add to your CV.
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(