There's lots of first-hand accounts of this from recent days -- intensifying over time. For now, the window's closing/closed for #Afghans, as the U.S. & others prioritize their citizens' evacuation.

This was all inevitable given the tight timeline, and it'll worsen too.
More than any other aspect of the #Afghanistan withdrawal, this is what should have been 100% avoidable.

And as @RepAdamSchiff has just stated, the IC *did* warn of a swift #Taliban victory -- this was *not* an intelligence failure, it was a political/decision-making one.
@RepAdamSchiff The #Taliban aren't stupid; they know the U.S. (& #NATO allies) are under pressure -- #Taliban fighters have significantly increased their intimidation of Afghans outside #HKIA - countless reports of beating, whipping & even gunfire.

And they're blocking known meeting points.
@RepAdamSchiff Should #Biden want an extension beyond Aug 31, the #Taliban won't give it for free -- given #Afghanistan's impending economic crisis, the ask will likely be financial.

As Dave Kilcullen told @MEI_CTE today, that's means we're basically in a hostage crisis of unprecedented scale.
@RepAdamSchiff @MEI_CTE As the #Taliban consolidate power, it's inevitable that #AlQaeda will seek to rebuild & #ISIS-K will aim to resurge -- plus TTP, IMU, TIP & more.

Though minimally said in public, governments are beginning to clock onto the prospect for a new foreign fighter flow to #Afghanistan.
@RepAdamSchiff @MEI_CTE There are plenty of variables that'll determine whether & how significant any foreign fighter movement might be -- but policymakers should plan for the worst & learn lessons from #ISIS in #Syria-#Iraq.

One proposal is to make *any* travel to #Afghanistan a criminal offense.
@RepAdamSchiff @MEI_CTE #Syria was an "easy" destination for Europe & #MiddleEast-based foreign fighters -- that was a clear & significant facilitator.

Don't underestimate the potent aura that #Afghanistan represents as the 'birthplace' of #AlQaeda & the site of 2 'victories' -- against the USSR & USA.
@RepAdamSchiff @MEI_CTE FYI -- These numbers tell just a glimmer of the full story -- imagery tracking (i.e, evidence) indicates the #Taliban has captured at least 2,000x, if not 2,500x M1151 HMMWVs.

See this, which tracked to Aug 14:

oryxspioenkop.com/2021/06/disast…
NEW - CIA Director Burns met with senior #Taliban leader & co-founder Mullah Baradar in #Kabul yesterday — amid heightening concern about the evacuation effort & unlikely prospects for extending the Aug 31 deadline.

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
This is a flawless explanation of the #Afghanistan situation -- how we got here, from #Trump to #Biden.

Somehow, @BBCRosAtkins always seems to hit the nails on their heads.

Take 7mins & watch:
@BBCRosAtkins Wow, the #Taliban have promoted another Haqqani leader into a senior role -- Mohammed Nabi Omari (on left) as governor of Khost.

A former 12yr Guantanamo inmate, Nabi was released (with 4 others) for Bowe Bergdahl in 2014 -- he's got DEEP links with #AlQaeda.
@BBCRosAtkins This is precisely what I said yesterday (see: ) -- we'll need 3+ days to complete the military withdrawal, which now leaves us 3 days of civilian evacuation time left.

i.e., not enough, given what we know about the scale remaining in #Kabul/#Afghanistan.

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More from @Charles_Lister

28 Aug
BREAKING -- a U.S. drone strike has targeted #ISIS-K operatives in eastern #Afghanistan.

via @idreesali114
@idreesali114 The U.S. strike today targeted #ISIS-K in #Afghanistan's #Nangarhar province

Earlier, unnamed IC officials had said explosive devices & other materials had been sent by #ISIS from #Nangarhar to #Kabul in recent days.
@idreesali114 Earlier today, the #Taliban was reported to have engaged in clashes with #ISIS-K cells in #Nangarhar's Dara-i-Noor district.

The #Taliban-#ISIS conflict has been centered in #Nangarhar & neighboring #Kunar provinces.
Read 8 tweets
24 Aug
#Biden's decision to stick to the Aug 31 deadline is bold -- it raises 2 key risks:

1) We'll be leaving people behind, certainly 1,000s of #Afghans & quite likely, a few Americans in hard-to-reach spots.

2) Other G7/NATO states have been rebuffed again by #Biden -- more anger.
"#Biden's decision to pull out troops was backed by most Americans, 53%-38%. But almost two-thirds, 62%, disapproved of the way his administration has handled that withdrawal."

Overall approval rating now 41%.

New polling on #Afghanistan's impact:

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… Image
BREAKING -- The US military has begun re-withdrawing from #Afghanistan, per US officials.

Very worrying sign for the 10,000s of those left behind - mostly #Americans, but some U.S. & European nationals too.
Read 65 tweets
24 Aug
Note to all -- it *is* possible for both these things to be true:

1) The #Afghanistan withdrawal has been a debacle, due to a lack of planning; hurried schedule; & ignoring worst-case scenarios.

2) The USG & NATO evacuation effort in recent days has been extraordinary & heroic.
Similarly, while it's entirely legitimate to argue that staying in #Afghanistan for 20yrs was illustrative of mission creep and strategic errors, that doesn't in any way mean that a withdrawal was guaranteed to result in chaos, humanitarian crisis & a terrorist state.
If a public figure is telling you that policy 'failure' in #Afghanistan made chaos inevitable -- he/she is lying to you.

If a public figure tells you that the heroic [crisis] evacuation effort is evidence that everything's fine -- he/she is also lying to you.

Think & question.
Read 6 tweets
16 Aug
Smoke & mirrors -- #Biden is clearly determined to defend the policy of withdrawal, but that's not the core reason for today's anger.

The debacle was *how* that withdrawal was conducted. It's just not enough to shoulder-off the blame to #Afghanistan. Image
"The #Taliban doesn't even have an airforce," #Biden says.

- Well, they certainly do now, Mr President. Image
If I'm not mistaken, #Biden hasn't yet mentioned the appalling suffering, panic & terror being felt by so many across #Afghanistan -- it's all about defending the withdrawal & blaming the disaster on #Afghans.

Just a bafflingly tone deaf message, considering global attention. Image
Read 58 tweets
15 Aug
NEW - #Taliban prepping for a conference inside #Afghanistan's Presidential Palace.

Reports said they planned to re-proclaim the Islamic Emirate of #Afghanistan.
During the AJA-televised conference, one #Taliban commander (is that Mullah Zakir?) says he spent 8yrs in #Guantanamo.

A clear salt-in-wound moment for the U.S.
One #Taliban commander speaking from #Afghanistan's Presidential Palace says #Taliban forces have been "coordinating with" U.S. officials today, amid their entry into #Kabul.
Read 13 tweets
9 Aug
Catastrophic 72hrs for #Afghanistan, as the #Taliban capture 5 provincial capitals -- taking military bases, airports, emptying prisons etc.

The U.S. (then NATO) withdrawal is clearly an utter disaster, but that ship has sailed -- muted response from #Washington says everything.
#Taliban control in #Afghanistan:

Mid-April: 77 districts:
Early-August: 229 districts

Nearly 50% of provincial capitals are now under #Taliban threat.

(via @LongWarJournal) ImageImage
@LongWarJournal NEW -- Early reports emerging that the #Taliban may have just captured its 6th provincial capital in 4 days: #Aybak, in #Samangan.
Read 58 tweets

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