Thread by @Charles_Lister

Smoke & mirrors -- #Biden is clearly determined to defend the policy of withdrawal, but that's not the core reason for today's anger.

The debacle was *how* that withdrawal was conducted. It's just not enough to shoulder-off the blame to #Afghanistan.

"The #Taliban doesn't even have an airforce," #Biden says.

- Well, they certainly do now, Mr President.

If I'm not mistaken, #Biden hasn't yet mentioned the appalling suffering, panic & terror being felt by so many across #Afghanistan -- it's all about defending the withdrawal & blaming the disaster on #Afghans.

Just a bafflingly tone deaf message, considering global attention.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in terms of CT, we haven't managed to negotiate any meaningful "over-the-horizon" air access yet, right?

So the core remaining interest -- CT -- is null, and worsened further by the #Taliban now being #Afghanistan's government.

Main takeaways?

#Biden has doubled down & ignored altogether what a catastrophic & humiliating mess that the withdrawal ended up creating.

Plus an absolutely *ice cold* indifference to the enormous human suffering that's resulted.

Unsurprisingly, #Biden fled that address - and the media - almost as fast as the troops he ordered out of #Afghanistan.

NEW -- Public support for the #Afghanistan withdrawal has dropped from 69 to 49%.

Hardly surprising, people certainly wanted a withdrawal, but not an abandonment, humanitarian catastrophe & #Taliban takeover.

https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/1427364718927355906

You're pulling wool over people's eyes -- the #Afghan Army has fought valiantly against the #Taliban for 20yrs, at an enormous cost.

*We* decided to undermine their govt, pull the rug from under their feet, kill off their airforce & tell the #Taliban our withdrawal timetable.

https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1427372444080353283

How it started / How it's going.

#Afghanistan

Bravo @mattczeller.

- "I feel like I watched a different speech than the rest of you guys. I was appalled" -- on #Biden's #Afghanistan's speech.

@mattczeller Terrorism has indeed metastasized & yes, we do do CT w/o permanent military presence elsewhere...

... but not in countries *entirely* controlled by terrorist groups allied with the perpetrators of 9/11.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1427421037973618689

@mattczeller #Europe's up in arms following #Biden's #Afghanistan speech.

'Allies are calling this "Biden's America First moment" -- a #Trump-style rejection of allies, leading to horrific human rights abuses, a huge refugee crisis & a new terrorist breeding ground.'

politico.eu/newsletter/lon…

@mattczeller There’s no doubt the #Taliban’s takeover of #Afghanistan is an opportunity for #AlQaeda — Pres. #Biden’s claim that we’re well placed to contain/counter this is a lie.

My interview w. @CNN’s @NewDay this morning - thanks @LauraAJarrett @ChristineRomans

@mattczeller @CNN @NewDay @LauraAJarrett @ChristineRomans "For the first time in years, not only does #AlQaeda finally have some breathing space, it’s being gifted an enormously significant safe haven in which to rebuild."

Me quoted by @wstrobel @dnvolz in the @WSJ:

wsj.com/articles/extre…

@mattczeller @CNN @NewDay @LauraAJarrett @ChristineRomans @wstrobel @dnvolz @WSJ For understandable reasons, the world's media is focused on #Kabul -- the #Taliban knows this & is working hard to display a more appetizable image.

Bear in mind that this is (a) likely unsustainable & (b) largely PR. Think about what's happening elsewhere across #Afghanistan.

@mattczeller @CNN @NewDay @LauraAJarrett @ChristineRomans @wstrobel @dnvolz @WSJ Fact check: @ChrisMurphyCT -- we *do* have troops in #Yemen & plenty of SOF in #Africa too.

And there's not a single CT expert out there - that I know of - who's suggested that terrorists won't find vital opportunities to revitalize in a #Taliban-controlled #Afghanistan.

@mattczeller @CNN @NewDay @LauraAJarrett @ChristineRomans @wstrobel @dnvolz @WSJ @ChrisMurphyCT And for the record, the mere act of withdrawing & catalyzing the collapse of #Afghanistan has led 100s of #AlQaeda operatives being released from prison by the #Taliban.

That's *at least* doubled AQ's operational force in the space of a week. Are we safer from that? No.

@mattczeller @CNN @NewDay @LauraAJarrett @ChristineRomans @wstrobel @dnvolz @WSJ @ChrisMurphyCT From a CT-type perspective, this is good news -- but from a humanitarian perspective, it means $billions less to keep basic services going.

The humanitarian crisis being spoken of isn't just displacement -- it's much broader & hardly being revealed yet.

https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1427662673920016387

@mattczeller @CNN @NewDay @LauraAJarrett @ChristineRomans @wstrobel @dnvolz @WSJ @ChrisMurphyCT #NATO was demoralized by #Trump & hopeful after #Biden's election -- the #Afghanistan debacle has put that hope to bed.

@FT: "#NATO allies urge rethink on alliance after #Biden’s ‘unilateral’ #Afghanistan exit"

ft.com/content/3ea7e8…

@mattczeller @CNN @NewDay @LauraAJarrett @ChristineRomans @wstrobel @dnvolz @WSJ @ChrisMurphyCT @FT 72hrs after the #Taliban entered #Kabul, President Biden has had his 1st call with a #NATO ally -- calling #UK PM Johnson this afternoon.

Amid heightening criticism of the withdrawal across #NATO states & a days-long crisis at the airport, you have to wonder why it took 3 days.

@mattczeller @CNN @NewDay @LauraAJarrett @ChristineRomans @wstrobel @dnvolz @WSJ @ChrisMurphyCT @FT “The idea that things were somewhat under control, therefore we can pack up our bags and leave, was extraordinarily shortsighted. #AlQaeda hadn’t chosen to relocate elsewhere.. 1+1=2.. #AlQaeda will thrive & at least recover.”

My comments to @Isikoff:

news.yahoo.com/talibans-retur…

@mattczeller @CNN @NewDay @LauraAJarrett @ChristineRomans @wstrobel @dnvolz @WSJ @ChrisMurphyCT @FT @Isikoff “The #Taliban-#AlQaeda relationship is as firm as it’s ever been... The #Taliban’s political positioning may have evolved somewhat over the years, but relationships like that are far more resilient.”

My comments, cited by @julianborger of @guardian:

theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…

Oh wow.

I’m also hearing that the “shelter in place” order (while understandable in the circumstances) has left 1,000s behind an intricate cobweb of #Taliban checkpoints, where fighters are checking *all* cell phones for *anything* in English & French.

https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1427752780060573697

What a catastrophic mess -- if #Taliban checkpoints are the obstacle, then I don't see how "outside #Kabul" is an accurate statement.

As my previous tweet (above) indicates, the #Taliban's checkpoints *inside* #Kabul appear to be seeking English-speaking travelers.

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1427742580176048139

#Democrat-led Senate (1) Intelligence, (2) Foreign Relations & (3) Armed Services committees are all planning to investigate what they call the "horrifying results" of not "being better prepared" & the admin's "flawed execution of the U.S. withdrawal."

politico.com/news/2021/08/1…

Generals & diplomats at the highest level warned about the consequences of an #Afghanistan pullout, but -- as is becoming increasingly clear -- the decision had already been made.

Good reporting by @KThomasDC & @vmsalama:

wsj.com/articles/biden…

@KThomasDC @vmsalama Per this @kim_staffieri tweet, male #Afghan SIV applicants are being whipped by the #Taliban with metal chains outside #Kabul airport -- while U.S. Marines have been told not to engage.

Take a #Taliban "amnesty" with a giant pinch of salt.

https://twitter.com/kim_staffieri/status/1427778494415712256

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri A giant statue of [Shia, ethnic] Hazara leader Abdul Ali Mazari has reportedly been demolished in an explosion in #Bamiyan tonight -- in an attack locals are blaming on the #Taliban (though it could feasibly be ISK)

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri President #Biden's approval rating has dropped from 53% to 46% since Friday -- as the domestic effect of the #Afghanistan debacle begins to become clear.

A parallel Ipsos poll rated #Biden worse on #Afghanistan than, #Bush, #Obama & #Trump.

reuters.com/world/us/biden…

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri "What does it say about #NATO that we were entirely reliant on a unilateral decision take by the United States? Surely one outcome of this must be how #NATO operates."

Former #UK Prime Minister @theresa_may adding to Qs in #Europe about NATO & the U.S. role within it.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1427933549529747458

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may A wow speech by @TomTugendhat, Chair of #UK Def. Committee -- he also had words for #Biden:

- "To see the Comm'r in Chief call into Q the men I fought with. To claim they ran is shameful. Those who've never fought for the colors they fly should be careful about those who have."

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1427945188333260803

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat The signs have been emerging for days now that the debacle that resulted from #Biden's overly-hasty #Afghanistan withdrawal was going to have repercussions with allies -- and judging from talk in the #UK Government today, it can no longer be refuted.

Very disappointing to see.

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat Between the chaos & the #Taliban's extensive securitization of the #Kabul Airport area, you have to wonder -- how on earth are Americans/Europeans in #Kabul (let alone beyond) going to make it to the airport for evacuation?

@clarissaward report underlines the challenge ahead:

https://twitter.com/Sujayanth/status/1427968030546534400

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward #Karzai the intermediary & negotiator returns to the stage -- this is a role he's played adeptly, for 25+ years, with the #Taliban.

https://twitter.com/MJalal700/status/1427908838779342850

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward “The counterterrorism posture went from problematic w. the US withdrawal to extraordinarily bad w. the #Taliban in full control.. Suddenly one wonders if we'll go entirely dark. It’s like a bad dream.”

- @Mpolymer, former #CIA base chief in #Afghanistan:

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer How did US policy towards #Afghanistan withdrawal get it so wrong?

This is *THE* definitive explainer by my @MEI_CTE colleague @douglaslondon5, who spent 34yrs in the #CIA -- his last post was Counterterrorism Chief for South & Southwest Asia.

Read it:

justsecurity.org/77801/cias-for…

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 .@douglaslondon5:

"The decision #Trump made & #Biden ratified, to rapidly withdraw.. came despite warnings projecting the outcome we’re now witnessing. It was a path #Trump & #Biden allowed themselves to be held captive owing to the “ending Forever Wars” slogan they embraced."

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 .@douglaslondon5:

"#Pompeo was the principal architect of engagement with the #Taliban that culminated in the catastrophic Feb '20 withdrawal agreement.. #Pompeo championed the plan despite the IC's caution that its 2 key objectives [an AQ break & peace] were highly unlikely."

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 .@douglaslondon5:

"Our impression was #Khalilzad was angling to be #Trump’s SecState.. & would do/say what he was told to secure his future by pleasing the mercurial president, including his steady compromise of whatever leverage the US had to incentivize #Taliban compromises."

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 .@douglaslondon5:

"The US defense establishment only exacerbated the problem... [The DOD's] rose-colored depictions of achievement over 20yrs flew in the face of reality & was consistently challenged by the #CIA’s more gloomy, albeit realistic projections."

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 By all accounts, the #Taliban's PR effort has indeed been restricted to #Kabul only -- and even there, it's already fraying at the edges.

Elsewhere in #Afghanistan, reports of reprisal attacks, widespread searches/arrests & today's deadly shooting in Jalalabad.

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 "I write from the #Panjshir Valley today, ready to follow in my father’s footsteps, with mujahideen fighters who are prepared to once again take on the #Taliban."

Ahmad Massoud calls on the US & #Europe to provide his resistance forces weapons/supplies:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 Wow -- @mattczeller Round 2.

This time turning his ire to @StephenM ("a privileged little brat... as complicit as the #Taliban in these people's deaths").

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1428060287291252737

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 @mattczeller @StephenM On July 8, President #Biden said the #Afghanistan withdrawal would be "secure & orderly" & that a #Taliban takeover was "highly unlikely.

Today, on Aug 18, #Biden told @GStephanopoulos that "chaos" was "inevitable" amid a U.S. withdrawal.

So which is it?

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 @mattczeller @StephenM @GStephanopoulos Beyond this 180 in #Biden admin messaging, the "withdrawal" timeline is now also slipping.

#Biden told @GStephanopoulos that U.S. troops will stay in #Kabul until they can get "all" U.S. citizens out, beyond August 31 if necessary.

BUT an untold number are unreachable per DOD.

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 @mattczeller @StephenM @GStephanopoulos The #Taliban is already beginning to lash out against former adversaries & imposing itself brutally across #Afghanistan -- and in #Kabul, the #Taliban PR machine might be alive, but command/control is fraying around the edges.

What's #Kabul going to look like on/after Aug 31?

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 @mattczeller @StephenM @GStephanopoulos The #UK, #France, #Italy & other governments have SOF personnel "extracting" citizens from across #Kabul & bringing them to the airport -- but for now, the "policy decision" hasn't come from #Biden to do the same for #American nationals.

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1428082289741684737

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 @mattczeller @StephenM @GStephanopoulos One thing that's lost amid the focus on how quickly the #Taliban took over #Afghanistan is that President #Biden has now said on several occasions that the U.S. knew a #Taliban takeover was inevitable -- the only Q was when.

So we chose to leave *knowing* the #Taliban would win.

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 @mattczeller @StephenM @GStephanopoulos Per the @GStephanopoulos transcript, President #Biden said the US doesn't have "any military in #Syria" -- which is incorrect, we have ~900.

That inaccurate line has been repeated by the #Biden admin in recent days. Why such a glaring, repeated mistake?

abcnews.go.com/Politics/full-…

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 @mattczeller @StephenM @GStephanopoulos #UK officials leaking more info on strained ties with the U.S. in recent weeks:

MOD: "We were left in the dark" by the U.S. on withdrawal timeline & planning.

PM Office: #Biden ignored Boris Johnson's request for a call for 36hrs.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1428280996730916867

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 @mattczeller @StephenM @GStephanopoulos MONDAY -- "#Afghanistan’s Collapse & the Implications for Global Jihadism & Counterterrorism"

- This @MEI_CTE event should be well-worth tuning in for; great panel:

David Kilcullen
@annestenersen
@asfandyarmir
@KarenGreenberg3
& me, moderating.

RSVP:

mei.edu/events/afghani…

@KThomasDC @vmsalama @kim_staffieri @theresa_may @TomTugendhat @clarissaward @Mpolymer @MEI_CTE @douglaslondon5 @mattczeller @StephenM @GStephanopoulos @annestenersen @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 NEW - "I sat through more NSC meetings than I care to recall which featured evidence of.. the ISI’s complicity in protecting, financing & enabling the #Taliban [& more].. to draw #American blood & kill innocent civilians."

@douglaslondon5 for @MEI_CTE:

mei.edu/publications/y…

Listen, learn & reflect — @RoryStewartUK on #Afghanistan:

@RoryStewartUK Prominent former #UK diplomat, @TFletcher:

- "We expected empathy, strategy & wisdom from #Biden. His messaging targeted #Trump’s base, not rest of the world, and not allies."

https://twitter.com/TFletcher/status/1428673450751762435

@RoryStewartUK @TFletcher Reports from #Kabul are getting more & more worrying by the day -- it's becoming increasingly clear that some #Taliban *are* hunting (house-to-house) #Afghans who worked with the US/#NATO.

Some US/EU citizens have been beaten getting to the airport; many prevented altogether.

@RoryStewartUK @TFletcher Local reports also suggest that core #Taliban units from #Helmand are positioning to assume responsibility for #Kabul security -- that'd make the situation a great deal more precarious.

#Taliban checkpoints still looking for anything incriminating as excuse to detain/beat/block.

@RoryStewartUK @TFletcher Nothing to see here, just one of #America's most-wanted terrorists, Khalil Haqqani, on the streets of #Kabul today.

There's a $5 million bounty on his head -- hopefully we're keeping an eye on him "over the horizon."

@RoryStewartUK @TFletcher Here are 100s of #Kabul men pledging allegiance to the #Taliban this morning, during a visit to the Pul-e Khishti Mosque by Khalil Haqqani -- one of #America's most wanted terrorists.

His ties to #AlQaeda date back 20yrs.