Thread by @Charles_Lister

#Biden's decision to stick to the Aug 31 deadline is bold -- it raises 2 key risks:

1) We'll be leaving people behind, certainly 1,000s of #Afghans & quite likely, a few Americans in hard-to-reach spots.

2) Other G7/NATO states have been rebuffed again by #Biden -- more anger.

"#Biden's decision to pull out troops was backed by most Americans, 53%-38%. But almost two-thirds, 62%, disapproved of the way his administration has handled that withdrawal."

Overall approval rating now 41%.

New polling on #Afghanistan's impact:

usatoday.com/story/news/pol…

BREAKING -- The US military has begun re-withdrawing from #Afghanistan, per US officials.

Very worrying sign for the 10,000s of those left behind - mostly #Americans, but some U.S. & European nationals too.

With Aug 31 closing in, the #Taliban are making life around #Kabul airport *very* difficult, effectively ending Afghan movement altogether -- the panic is beginning to spread.

Local messaging from the U.S. Embassy has been problematic -- see this:

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1430249556655083522

A long list of flights chartered for Afghan evacuees today has been forced to depart almost empty as access into the airport has been effectively cut off -- in part by the #Taliban, but also US Marines who appear to have orders to cease traffic and/or only allow U.S. citizens in.

#Trump's deal paved a path to #Afghanistan's collapse & #Biden's sent everything "downhill."

Killing the ANDSF's Air Force removed its eyes & severed supply chains; the U.S. even took equipment tracking software & missile defense.

Sami Sadat speaks out:

nytimes.com/2021/08/25/opi…

I've not had nearly as much insight into these efforts as @mattczeller, but I know of Afghan *kids* traveling alone, who are pre-qualified for evacuation, being turned away at U.S. checkpoints *for being minors.*

Exception or not, there are consequences for such abandonment.

https://twitter.com/ericuman/status/1430284770680913921

@mattczeller The #Afghanistan withdrawal has thrown #NATO & U.S. ties with #Europe into question.

The critical language coming out of #London in particular has been highly unusual -- and now there's talk of altering alliances & rethinking the value of #NATO itself.

Good video here:

https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1430602086761345025

@mattczeller I've also heard in recent days from senior officials & influential figures in multiple #MiddleEast countries that events in #Afghanistan have been like an "earthquake" in terms of how capitals are now assessing U.S. foreign policy.

Skepticism, concern & paranoia spreading.

@mattczeller Everything's changing in #Kabul airport today -- it seems the evacuation is beginning to wind down.

Gates into #HKIA are largely shut -- for security & logistical reasons.

Military personnel at #HKIA are preparing to initiate their own withdrawal procedures, possibly tomorrow.

@mattczeller From what I'm hearing, SIV applicants are being told at #HKIA gates that time has run out, gates are only open to U.S. citizens/green card holders.

#Canada has ended its evacuation; #Germany will do so w'n hours.

I can't even imagine how many SIV-eligibles will be left behind.

@mattczeller NEW -- An Italian C-130 transport aircraft has been targeted by machine gun fire while taking off from #Kabul airport this AM (per @Conflicts).

No damage/casualties.

Reports also of a small, unexplained "explosion" near north gate.

@mattczeller @Conflicts NEW -- 10% of U.S. troops have already left #Afghanistan.

DOD says the civilian evacuation effort is continuing, but if military evacuation is underway, that would seem to reduce resources to maximize civilian processing.

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1430880856424472580

@mattczeller @Conflicts BREAKING -- "complex" suicide attack underway, plus gunfire at Abbey Gate, #Kabul airport.

This was everyone's worst nightmare. Casualties guaranteed.

@mattczeller @Conflicts Some reports say the attack took place near the Baron Hotel, on the approach to Abbey Gate.

The Baron has been used for days as a frontline gathering point for #Afghans seeking travel to the #UK.

@mattczeller @Conflicts Sources say 1 suicide bomber detonated within a large crowd of people & at least 1 other attacker opened fire with an automatic rifle.

10+ dead, per locals.

Some reports of UK &/or US military injuries.

@mattczeller @Conflicts 2-3 U.S. Marines confirmed injured in today's attack at #Kabul airport.

Civilian casualties are being carried away in wheelbarrows. Just tragic.

@mattczeller @Conflicts BREAKING -- 2nd suicide detonation confirmed, likely near the Baron Hotel, more casualties.

U.S. Embassy ordering all citizens to flee the airport zone altogether.

@mattczeller @Conflicts Judging by source reports, a number of #Taliban fighters may also have been wounded in today's double-suicide attack at #Kabul airport -- x1 at Abbey Gate & x1 outside Baron Hotel.

@mattczeller @Conflicts NEW -- Expect local casualties to rise, judging by gruesome footage coming out.

Also, worrying indications that the number of U.S. casualties may be more than 3 -- "several" are being described as "serious" too.

@mattczeller @Conflicts UPDATE -- the Baron Hotel attack was conducted using a suicide vest & the Abbey Gate reportedly involved a suicide car bomb. Other gunmen were allegedly involved too.

Absolute worst case (& sadly inevitable) scenario. Who knows how a civilian evacuation continues after this.

@mattczeller @Conflicts For now, gates into #HKIA are shut -- let's hope some evacuation flows can resume. There are still so many left.

The last group of Afghans I was involved in trying to get into the airport got through yesterday -- they'd been waiting around the Baron Hotel for days.

@mattczeller @Conflicts 4 U.S. soldiers were tragically killed in #ISIS's double suicide attack at #Kabul Airport today.

That's the biggest U.S. military loss of life in #Afghanistan since December 2015 (per iCasualties).

@mattczeller @Conflicts According to health officials in #Kabul, more than 60 Afghans were killed and as many as 150 others injured in today's #ISIS attack -- which targeted civilian men, women & children seeking a safer & better life.

Heartbreaking.

@mattczeller @Conflicts BREAKING -- @FoxNews reporting that 10 U.S. soldiers were killed in today's attack in #Kabul.

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1430953910131478534

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews BREAKING -- 3rd explosion reported at #Kabul airport.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews Absolutely staggering U.S. loss in #Kabul -- the biggest in #Afghanistan since a helicopter crash in... March 2012.

@LucasFoxNews reporting that "dozens" more U.S. personnel were wounded.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews CENTCOM Command McKenzie confirms 12 U.S. service-members killed & 15 wounded.

He insists the evacuation will continue.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews #CENTCOM's McKenzie says there are "about 1,000" Americans left in #Afghanistan.

(While he's speaking, reports emerging of gunfire outside #Afghan Parliament in #Kabul)

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews #CENTCOM's McKenzie, on #ISIS:

“We believe it is their desire to continue these attacks and we expect those attacks to continue.”

(2-3 more explosions & gunfire reported in the last 1hr)

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews #CENTCOM's McKenzie:

"My working assumption" is that 1/2 of the #ISIS bombers was being searched by U.S. troops when he detonated his explosives.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews Fascinating -- #CENTCOM's McKenzie says "we believe some attacks have been thwarted" by the #Taliban, after U.S. intelligence was shared.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews #CENTCOM's McKenzie:

"We believe that the SVBIED threat right now is very high."

#Taliban have agreed to close multiple roads to the airport, per a U.S. request.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews BREAKING -- #ISIS claim responsibility for today's attack in #Kabul:

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews Absolutely remarkable that 20yrs ago, the U.S. invaded #Afghanistan to overthrow the #Taliban in response to an attack (9/11) that killed Americans.

Today, we're asking for #Taliban protection from deadly attacks by #ISIS & in all likelihood, we won't be attacking #ISIS back.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews As #ISIS demonstrates its abilities & #AlQaeda lies low, planning a gradual recovery, #Biden is telling us we'll continue counterterrorism in #Afghanistan "over the horizon."

But as this @idreesali114 piece makes clear, we're a LONG way from that now:

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 BIG explosion being reported in #Kabul just now -- blast wave felt far & wide.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 At my count, there've been 6-7 explosions in #Kabul this evening -- and some (including @HabibKhanT) are reporting an ongoing gun battle in the west of the city.

Very dynamic situation -- #ISIS clearly engaged in a persistent flood of attacks.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT None of this was "inevitable," no matter what President #Biden or others say -- 150,000+ people did not need to make a run for #Kabul airport in the space of a week.

This is a *policy* debacle that'll go down in history -- and the implications felt far and wide.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT We shouldn't have needed to dispatch 6,000 U.S. troops to do truly heroic work, while being sitting ducks to an inevitable #ISIS attack.

The most horrifying thing is, we knew these attackers were coming, we knew it. And yet what choice did we have -- the evacuation continued.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT Today's attacks in #Kabul represent the biggest U.S. military loss of life in ~10yrs -- and took place during our evacuation.

With the exception of a helicopter crash, not even at the height of combat, with 100,000+ troops in #Afghanistan, did we sustain such losses.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT An update to this:

- Biggest U.S. military loss of life in ~10yrs.

If this is what "ending forever wars" looks like, we should want nothing to do with it. There are smarter ways to disengage and/or foster a semblance of stability -- it's not by upping & running, no Qs asked.

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1430885658969743361

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT #Taliban spokesman says recent explosion in #Kabul was the result of U.S. forces destroying equipment.

If that's already underway, I'd be surprised if we stay until Aug 31.

https://twitter.com/Zabehulah_M33/status/1430983774876098564

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT Are you kidding me?!

We just gave the #Taliban their kill list.

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1430975844147732480

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT Events in #Kabul today are an enormous propaganda & recruitment bonanza for #ISIS.

I heard just hours ago from an IC official from Southeast Asia that "chatter" in recent days has been flooded with plans for foreign fighter movement to #Afghanistan -- its *the* place to be.

@mattczeller @Conflicts @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT 13 U.S. soldiers killed & 18 wounded // 90+ Afghan civilians killed & 100+ wounded.

What a catastrophic day -- events that have served to underline (1) just what a debacle this withdrawal was & (2) how our claims to have dealt with #Afghanistan's terrorism threats are nonsense.

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT #Biden told #America that we'll be 'hunting down' #ISIS in #Afghanistan.

The problem is, we've folded up our intelligence footprint; burned our human assets; empowered the terrorists; and severely limited our overflight access (to aircraft departing from the Gulf).

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1431046324720394244

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT "#ISIS-X"

Thank goodness this buffoon isn't in the White House -- he paved the path for all this too.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1431067492206530568

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT NEW -- Medical officials in #Kabul are saying the death toll *at one hospital alone* is 145 (per @BBCJamesM).

That'd make this one of the deadliest terror attacks worldwide in the post-9/11 era.

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM A number of sources in #Kabul claim the #Taliban's elite "Badri 313" unit has conducted a number of raids targeting #ISIS-K cells in the city today.

Meanwhile, the #Taliban have intensified security patrols across #Kabul & set up more checkpoints (see propaganda images here).

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM Bravery of the highest order:

An all-volunteer group of U.S. veterans have saved 630 former Afghan special forces & their families as part of "Task Force Pineapple," a secret night-time campaign in #Taliban-run #Kabul.

abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-sp…

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM After yesterday's attacks in #Kabul, much of this @MEI_CTE discussion from Monday is worth hearing again:

"#Afghanistan’s Collapse & the Implications for Global Jihadism & Counterterrorism"

David Kilcullen
@asfandyarmir
@KarenGreenberg3
@annestenersen

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen NEW -- The U.S. military is now saying there was only 1 suicide bombing at #Kabul Airport yesterday, at Abbey Gate -- not a 2nd at the Baron Hotel.

That'd explain why #ISIS-K only took responsibility yesterday for 1 single bomber.

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen In press conference just now, @PentagonPresSec said "1,000s" of #ISIS-K fighters were released from prisons during the #Taliban takeover of #Afghanistan.

(That sounds *very* high to me -- a spot of blame-shifting underway?)

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec Since it's emergence in 2015, #ISIS-K has been an avowed enemy of the #Taliban.

During recent prison takeovers in #Afghanistan, the #Taliban is known to have executed senior #ISIS-K detainees - the idea that it'd release "1,000s" (if that number even existed) doesn't make sense.

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec The #ISIS-#Taliban blood feud is deeply & irreversibly rooted & #ISIS-K's recruitment efforts are heavily focused on disaffected #Taliban fighters.

FWIW, [insane] proposals to use the #Taliban as a counter-#ISIS partner would drive up #ISIS-K recruitment significantly.

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec NEW -- #Taliban claim to have captured 3 #ISIS-K operatives associated with yesterday's attack in #Kabul.

Multiple gunmen do appear to have been involved, in addition to the suicide bomber.

https://twitter.com/Asif300/status/1431204000590880769

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec After plenty of rumor, #Taliban rep says #Taliban fighters have now "entered" #Kabul airport.

https://twitter.com/MJalal700/status/1431317988070752257

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec The fact that the U.S. is even considering (1) maintaining an Embassy presence in #Kabul & (2) recognizing a new #Taliban-led government is simply remarkable.

We've already given them the SIV list & we're sharing #ISIS-associated intel with them too.

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec I beg your pardon?

That's a bit of a stretch, considering we now have Haqqanis in #Taliban leadership roles across #Afghanistan & Haqqani leaders taking mass pledges of allegiance on behalf of the #Taliban.

https://twitter.com/rabrowne75/status/1431341034320052225

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec "As a result of the hurried nature of our withdrawal & the resulting collapse of the #Afghan govt, our intel network across the country has been decimated — our 'eyes' are largely gone & our 'ears' and severely limited."

My comments to @BusinessInsider:

businessinsider.com/biden-has-limi…

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec @BusinessInsider Per @douglaslondon5, Khalil Haqqani is indeed #Kabul's security chief -- he's the "chief operational commander" of the Haqqani Network & the primary coordinator with #AlQaeda & #Pakistan's ISI.

N.B. Doug spent 34yrs at the CIA -- his last post was running CT across South Asia.

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec @BusinessInsider @douglaslondon5 .@RepSusanWild of House Foreign Affairs Committee, on @CNN just now:

Withdrawal was the right policy, but the procedure taken to do so was all wrong -- moreover, she says the USG *did* have all the intel needed to know of worst case scenario.

The result? "Cascading failures."

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec @BusinessInsider @douglaslondon5 @RepSusanWild @CNN "I don't believe anyone in the West fully understands the reach of the #Haqqani Network.. it's the single most impressive non-state militant group I've ever seen, with the exception of #ISIS in the first 2yrs of the caliphate.”

Spot on, from Mike Nagata:

wsj.com/articles/in-ta…

@mattczeller @LucasFoxNews @idreesali114 @HabibKhanT @BBCJamesM @MEI_CTE @asfandyarmir @KarenGreenberg3 @annestenersen @PentagonPresSec @BusinessInsider @douglaslondon5 @RepSusanWild @CNN "He also rejected the distinction between the Haqqanis and the Taliban. 'We are the Taliban.'"

- @awsanzar interviews @AnasHaqqani313, who says the #Taliban have changed -- most Afghans still see that as a PR front.

newlinesmag.com/reportage/tali…