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KlimaZen Profile picture
@KlimaZen
Oct 23, 2021 • 376 tweets • >60 min read • Read on X
According to specialists in Denmark,
the #energycrisis causes #fertilizer plants to shut down worldwide.

This could trigger a #food crisis,
at least for those who cannot afford to pay the 4-fold price for fertilizer...
(they expect it to happen in 2022)
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-1… Image
Meanwhile,
already in India
DAP (Diammonium Phosphate #fertilizer) is becoming scarce.
Farmers need it now, to start sowing in time.
The main ingredients would come from China... but not this year.
"50% of the world´s food relies on #fertilisers"
🤷
(note: rice isn´t mentioned here, as it´s an interview with an expert from Norway.
In fact, conventional rice production consumes loads of chemicals, too)
theguardian.com/business/2021/… Image
🤔Returning to that thread from 2021...
The price for fertiliser has roughly doubled since April 2021

(April 2021 is a significant date, here...)
indexmundi.com/commodities/?c… Image
In April 2021,
Sri Lanka´s president announcend that the country would no longer afford using chemical fertilizer.

~for ´societal costs (health & environment damage)´
but also because it became too expensive.
economynext.com/sri-lanka-to-b… Image
A story on how Sri Lanka´s shift (actually: overthrow) away from chemical fertiliser went...

Not good at all.

(farming without fertiliser is a completely different approach. It´s not ´the same method, just without fertiliser - so it went horribly wrong)
theguardian.com/world/2022/apr…
Meanwhile
the situation in Sri Lanka has escalated violently.
Here´s a sitrep from the new PM.

(Unfortunately the "solutions" won´t solve the problems, but are only short term remedies)
Image
As North Korea found out: even when trying to improvise some fertiliser, there´s one essential component needed:
Urea.

Urea was another issue, recently
(or the same - it´s all connected)...
dailynk.com/english/north-… Image
Back to another thread from 2021.
It´s about the worldwide #urea shortage back then...
Oh, wild times back then:
South Korea was so short on #urea that they rationed it.
They even used ´unconventional´ methods 🇦🇺🛫🇰🇷 to secure urgent supplies for critical infrastructure:
Looks like the reason why we don´t see drastic urea shortage right now is:

this time producers don´t shut down their production lines, even when production costs are horrendous...

If customers want (need) that product, they need to pay this price.
agriland.ie/farming-news/y… Image
Sidenote (Part 1)

The world in 2021 was different:
Russia was world´s No 1 exporter for #Urea and fertilizer compounds...
argusmedia.com/en/news/230470… Image
Sidenote (Part 2):

In 2022 (yesterday), Russia announced that new cars will now be produced with:
- Euro "0" standard (no exhaust treatment at all)
- no Satnav
- no ABS

due to shortage of parts.
Image
Spending $500 million on fuel,
every month
and having to borrow all that money...

Looks like there´s no way out for Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka even had a vision:

the nation´s Tuk Tuk 🛺drivers
were willing to become
Zzz Zzz 🛺⚡️drivers (powered by solar panels)...

But so far they only ended up creating a new regulatory body (with some lucrative positions for some, maybe)
Meanwhile,
in Austria...

a mishap during repair works at a major oil refinery leaves it with only "some parts continuing to work".
Duration: not foreseeable.

(note: this has already weird implications)
omv.com/de/vorfall-raf… Image
Due to the breakdown at the large refinery,
Austria´s "Ministry for Climate Protection" has commanded the immediate release of some of #Austria´s state oil reserves for ´essential use´...
🙄
(it´s holiday season and people finally want to go on holidays)
Meanwhile in #Hungary
(which is nearly entirely dependent on subsidised fuel from Austria)

rumours were going that many petrol stations would have to close very soon -
as #Austria now had no fuel left to share...
(was denied officially soon after)
ungarnheute.hu/news/omv-demen… Image
The situation:
- 80% of #Austria´s only refinery is out of service
- 4~5 days of fuel storage left (state reserves are brought to market due to holiday travel demand)
- Parliament ordered: state reserves won´t go to other countries (Hungary)...

🙄
parlament.gv.at/PAKT/PR/JAHR_2… Image
Subsidies in #Hungary are providing its citizens with an illusion that fuel is reliably available in abundance and always affordable.

The more you ´use´, the more you save...
⛽️😏💰
abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/… Image
#Hungary made sure (~2 weeks ago), that the illusion of cheap, reliable fuel only exists for Hungarians
(not the cheap-fuel-hunting motorists from neighboring countries any more):

foreign licence plate: pay the full price
dailynewshungary.com/shocking-heres…
The national licence plate-based fuel subsidy in #Hungary has now lead to a new ´business idea´:

Hungarian licence plates are stolen to sell them in neighboring countries...
🙄
euractiv.com/section/politi…
#Austria:
Vienna International Airport NOTAM:

"Due to mechanical incident at OMV refinery, Jet #Fuel A1 is very limited...
All aircraft operators are requested to avoid refuelling..."

krone.at/2729667 Image
This morning,
a pipe-disruptive incident stopped operations at one US #LNG (liquid gas) terminal (for longer).

It´s usually one of only a few LNG export hubs.
This means:
LNG prices in USA now plummet (as gas is stuck there)
and prices surge in EU⚠️
🙄
ft.com/content/d89b4b…
On the size of that US LNG terminal that went offline today:

with its 15 million tons delivery capacity per year,
it would have been capable to fill up Germany´s entire LNG storage,
in the remaining ~210 days of this year.
🤔🧮
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
That one LNG export terminal that was sent offline yesterday
also represents ~20% of the entire LNG export capacity in the US.

(´The Guardian´ also did some rough calculations...):
theguardian.com/us-news/2022/j… Image
Basically, that headline says it all.

"Freeport #LNG explosion raises risk of European winter energy crisis"

edition.cnn.com/2022/06/09/ene… Image
Update from #Austria's only refinery:

"Hey, we think we can fix it so we'll be able to refine all the crude oil we pump from Austria's ground😁!"

🤔Wait a second...
Austria has very few oil wells!
So, they're talking of only ~8% of former production!
😳
omv.com/de/news/220610… Image
#Hungary is highly dependent on #fuel deliveries from Austria.

As Austria´s only refinery is continuing to be in "breakdown", Hungary has now also released some of it´s national emergency fuel stockpile

(to supply the hungarian market, exclusively)
magyarkozlony.hu/dokumentumok/8… Image
Nope,
they won´t.
🙄
Hungary is definitely not securing Austria´s fuel supply.
(as claimed by Austria´s tabloid press)
krone.at/2732032 Image
#Hungary:
~by current demand, the donated state #fuel reserves will last for ~14 days.

Then summer holiday & harvest season will kick in everywhere,
demand will surge...

"We better find a way to restart Austria´s refinery soon..."
Image
🙄...
Hungary´s only refinery is now reporting a fire.
A minor fire.

But big enough to shut parts of the plant down for
"< 2weeks"
and bring capacity down to ~60%
(should concern no car fuels, but oil products for industrial use)
⚠️
infostart.hu/belfold/2022/0… Image
That refinery in Hungary (now down to ~60% capacity by today´s fire) was the only one left to supply Hungary
(after that only refinery in Austria went into ´breakdown´)
...
and: "stocks are at a multi-decade low",
particularly diesel.
hungarytoday.hu/omv-schwechat-… Image
There was a warning, 2 weeks ago:

"The current energy crisis could be much bigger (& longer) than the oil shocks of the 1970s..."

"Back then it was just about oil
now we have
- oil crisis
- gas crisis
- electricity crisis

simultaneously"
money.usnews.com/investing/news… Image
#Germany today

Network surveillance authority:
"~We are examining the exact cause
and potential consequences from a sudden drop of flow in our major gas supply pipeline #NordStream1..."
🙄
(gas flow is down to 60%)
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
"One of #NordStream1´s gas turbines is currently in Canada for maintenance".

~It would be badly needed in #Russia, where also more equipment seems to start to fail.
Due to current sanctions, the machinery can´t be exported back from Canada...
berliner-zeitung.de/wirtschaft-ver… Image
Remember that major #LNG terminal in the USA, used primarily to supply gas to Europe?

A pipe rupture caused it to go offline, "for ~3 weeks..."

Today they announced:
- partial operations maybe in 3 months
- full operations... when Europe is frozen
🥶
newsrouter.com/NewsRouter_Upl… Image
👇
BASF in #Germany was relaxed
(early this morning)

"Only if we receive less than 50% of our peak #gas supply, we would need to shut down entire BASF completely"
😑
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe… Image
This afternoon,
just a few hours after BASF statement:

Gazprom will reduce gas flow via #NordStream1 even further to
~40%...
🫤
starting tomorrow morning.
tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/kon… Image
Germany´s Network Surveillance Authority updated their daily sitrep:

"~we are observing the new cutback in gas flow.
Gas supply is secured... *at the moment*"
🙄
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
Meanwhile,
a statement from #Austria´s only refinery:

After last weeks incident, the refinery now works at
max 20% capacity

Repairs will take longer...
"several weeks"
noe.orf.at/stories/316088… Image
😳That would get... interesting:

According to an old press announcement
(actually from a different era: 21 February 2022)

OMV would completely shut down their Burghausen refinery in Bavaria (Germany)
next week,
for a ~6 week maintenance.
omv.de/de-de/news/gen… Image
Burghausen is one refinery (of 2) that should fill up the gap the broken down refinery in Austria has left...
noe.orf.at/stories/316088… Image
Trying to set things on fire by closing the gas valve...
Very particular - but not unexected.
Image
🇦🇹Austria has now also received notice by Gazprom,
that gas delivery will be reduced
´due to technical issues´...🙄

(it´s a totally different gas pipeline for Austria, not Germany´s ´Nord Stream 1´)
France is now also observing a drop in gas flow...

(as France is connected to the other reduced pipelines.
Same thing would logically happen to ~all connected countries in Europe)
lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/gaz-…
Just to be sure:
A #Gazprom spokesman just noted that

"the company has lots of equipment for the pipeline which is due to undergo major maintenance next month..."

(or in one word: off)
reuters.com/business/energ…
France:
"There's no gas at all
Coming out of the pipeline from Russia via Germany..."

Germany´s view:

"The situation is tense...
but the gas supply (for Germany) is currently secured.

Gas transfer to neighboring countries (🇫🇷🇦🇹🇨🇿) is affected..."
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
They are really sticking to it

OMV has now commenced to also *completely* shut down its Burghausen refinery (Germany) for scheduled maintenance...

(original plan said "until early August")
omv.de/de-de/news/sta… Image
🤔...

Burghausen refinery is currently being completely shut down for weeks-long maintenance.

And they are supposed to supply distilled oil products to OMV refinery in Austria (which has ruined its main distillation unit)
for *weeks* to come ?

oh, well.
noe.orf.at/stories/316117… Image
OMV refinery in Austria has not even started repairs yet
🙄
(2 weeks after the incident that had reduced their capacity down to max 20%...)
noe.orf.at/stories/316117… Image
By the way:

Worst case expected by Austria´s government was apparently ~14 days of refinery repairs.
So they had released fuel from the national emergency reserve for 14 days.

Note: this was 2 weeks ago.
⏰Well, those 14 days are over, now.
infothek.bmk.gv.at/nach-zwischenf… Image
As the next gas pipeline from Russia goes into "planned maintenance" it leaves nothing but a trickle of gas to enter Europe...
🎞️1´50":
"If we´d had a full supply stop of gas from Russia while our gas storage capacity was at 100% full,
our stored gas would last ~2.5 months 🙄
(during an average winter)..."

(Head of #Germany´s Network Surveillance Authority)
#Slovenia had a price cap for fuel,
but cannot afford to continue as before.
Prices will jump on Tuesday.

As people are queueing to make last-minute fill-ups, petrol stations run out of fuel.
(Holiday traffic adds to the trouble).
24ur.com/novice/sloveni… Image
#Hungary also has price caps on necessities - not only on fuel, but also meat, sugar, cooking oil...

As real prices surge, shop owners choose to hide price-capped goods, instead of selling them 🙄
(they aren´t compensated, so selling would cause a loss)
atv.hu/belfold/202206… Image
´Russia has now found 50 WWII wartime bombs,
posing a threat to their Novorossisk port operations...

All oil exports via this port need to be halted´
🤔
(It´s the major export route for Kazakhstan´s oil.
70% of it go to EU, covering 6% of EU´s oil demand)
russia.postsen.com/news/46883/Rus…
Crisis meeting of Austria´s government:

in case of further disruption of gas flow,
one (!) power station shall be re-converted to be fired by coal.

(It was Austria´s last coal power station,
converted to gas 2 years ago)

Re-conversion will take months🙄
steiermark.orf.at/stories/316138… Image
Plans from Germany indicate that all gas power stations (~15% of Germany´s energy supply) will be replaced by coal fired stations (now sitting idle),

"as soon as the respective law comes into force"
bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/P… Image
Full operation of the large damaged LNG export terminal in Freeport (USA) might only be re-established at
🗓
the end of this year...🙄

(that terminal represents 4% of world's LNG export capacity)
Several hundred staff at german coal fired power plants were planning for an early retirement, as the "coal exit" shut down their plants.

Those plans have evaporated now:
"We need you to work longer",
says RWE...
tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/rwe…
Germany's Head of Network Authority:

"It will take us until 2024 to become independent from russian gas...

That's 2 winters we have to get through, together."
Uniper (one of Europe´s largest gas importers)
is ´not sure how much longer they can fulfill their obligations to supply gas to their clients´...,

if the current reduced gas flow continues.
faz.net/aktuell/wirtsc… Image
Also Uniper (Germany):

~´People should not rely on replacement infrastructure (LNG import) to be ready this winter.
Our own planning shows: this ain´t realistic.´

faz.net/aktuell/wirtsc… Image
It´s not official,
but an expert guesses that

"repairs at Austria´s broken down refinery might take *months*...."

🙄
noe.orf.at/stories/316165… Image
Due to urgent need to replace gas by coal,
the dutch government ´allowed´ the remaining 4 coal fired power plants in NL to go back to full scale power production.

Uniper Benelux´s manager complains
"we´re totally surprised"
(They don´t have coal in stock)
Germany has notified key utilities
that they should prepare for a switch to
"alert level" in Germany´s gas contingency plan...
within 5 to 10 days.

(industries would then be
"asked to reduce gas use voluntarily")
handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/en…
Germany´s minister of finances predicts
"Years of scarcity".

"My worry is that we´ll have a very worrying situation, a few weeks or months from now"🤔

Now - what do we do with that?
(unfortunately he gives not even a faint hint on how to deal with it)🙄
faz.net/aktuell/wirtsc… Image
I didn´t read any of these (~2 month old) articles,
as they only feature
can´t & don´t want.

"No, we don´t want to talk about meat consumption,
or speed limits.

By the way - speed limits aren´t feasible - we don´t have enough speed signs for that."
🤷
spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ser… Image
New wording in Germany
not only gas supply at "Alert Level",
but also:

~not impossible that the situation further deteriorates
~we won´t be able to fill up our gas storage until winter, if we don´t introduce additional steps
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
~"If gas utilities can´t afford buying gas anymore,
they won´t supply gas to industries.

That in turn would lead to a cascading / domino effect.
In the end it would affect our entire society" (just like the crash of Lehman Brothers in 2008...)
tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unt…
In other words:
Austria (and affiliated markets) will need to get through peak demand time (summer holidays) with help from other countries/producers...
Mayor of Karlsruhe, just returned from Berlin meetings:

~"The factual situation is far more serious than what you seem to feel.
If you think this crisis doesn´t affect you: your view may change drastically, soon.

I´ll adress the city´s council, soon."
Hungary´s price cap made people feel like there was no big problem with fuel supply.

Now petrol stations start rationing fuel.
20~50 liters for the ´official´ (state regulated) price.
Then you´ll pay more.
rtl.hu/gazdasag/2022/… Image
Sri Lanka´s energy minister ´regrets to inform´ that
none of the urgently awaited oil tankers
have arrived, nor will they arrive in the near future.
😳
(up to now, they managed to get by on fuel reserves for 1 week)
Sri Lanka:

~don´t queue for fuel (there´ll be no new supply)
~the country´s only refinery will also shut down

~reserves go primarily to public transport and power generation🙄
theprint.in/world/sri-lank… Image
As of yesterday,
Sri Lanka had "priority queues" at 85 dedicated petrol stations,exclusively for healthcare staff.

Looks like some spent their day in the queue.
#Japan´s government has just issued
an "electricity shortage alert".
⚠️⚡️
Due to a record heatwave, spare capacity is expected to drop below 5% in some areas.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2022… Image
#Japan´s power network controler OCCTO predicts only 3.7% spare #electricity for Tokyo region, tomorrow afternoon.

(just during peak demand hours. Likely avoidable by behavioural change)
In Japan´s extreme combination of heat & humidity,
air conditioning is regarded as life saving.

"Don´t be foolish and try to save money by switching of your aircon - heat stroke treatment comes way more expensive..."

(=> power supply is essential!)
France has a dedicated energy alert website.

(🤭they are clearly focussing on winter time, as their energy conservation tip suggests to "lower room temperatures to 16°C")

Nothing wrong - next days are "green".
But something VERY unusual happened today
😳
monecowatt.fr Image
Today,
the CEO´s of France´s leading energy providers urged everyone to
*save energy immediately*
⚠️🤏⚡️

"everyone" most likely means *everyone!* (not just consumers, not just in France)
"energy" means: electricity, gas, fuel,...
"immediately" means: now.
lejdd.fr/Societe/tribun… Image
What´s wrong in France? - They have loads of nuclear power!🤔
Yes - and those units still have a severe maintenance backlog (this winter, ~half of them(!) will be down...🙄

Saving energy now may allow to reschedule maintenance for a few.
(how it started:)
France is anticipating critically low nuclear availability.
So the "Ministry of Ecological Transition" has just ordered to prepare a decommissioned coal powered unit to go back into service,
just in case...
radiofrance.fr/franceinter/le…
Energy related news from Sri Lanka,
(only from today):

-rolling blackouts extended to 3 hours per day
-food prices go up 10%
-fuel prices go up 12~22% (depending on sort of fuel)
colombopage.com Image
Austria:

"If gas supply drops further,
we´ll experience a crisis unlike any other since WW2"

Some details about #Austria´s gas contingency plan have been made public today, to give a first impression of what people might be up to be confronted with...
ots.at/presseaussendu… Image
The energy situation in #Japan
(mainly in computer powered financial hotspot Tokyo)
is escalating.

Instead of power shortage just during peak demand (~5 pm),
reserves are now predicted to be critically low the entire daytime (~more than 12 hours, today)
Everyone is trying their best to keep Tokyo´s (also: Japan´s) power grid from crashing by conserving energy.

It miraculously worked in March 2011.
But now there´s a ~record heatwave.
And many coal power plants are offline for maintenance.
"There are some elderly people who turned off their aircon - PLEASE DON´T !!!"

Cases of hospitalization due to heatstroke in #Tokyo rose to 76 on Tuesday.
At least two people have died from the heat.

(😳In case of blackouts, all aircons will be off.)
dw.com/en/japan-warns… Image
Urgent attempts to start a dedicated reserve (gas) power station near #Tokyo are being delayed by "multiple defective parts"...
😣
It will not go online today.
jera.co.jp/notice/2022062… Image
Short term predictions even saw a ´beyond critical´🙄 situation for Tokyo´s power supply this afternoon.

(Note: these predictions fluctuate a lot - at the moment the situation is ~´no crash´.
Tokyo will suck in loads of energy, the grid will be fragile)
😳
トラブル : trouble

A 600 MW coal/biomass power unit in North-East Japan had to be shut down, due to technical issues

They'll try to get it back (somehow...) to produce ~250 MW during Tokyo's peak demand today.
"Thank you for your cooperation"

Japan terminated the electricity shortage alert today at 6 p.m.

⚡️😀⚡️
(some faulty power stations came back online)

"Final report"
...
www-meti-go-jp.translate.goog/press/2022/06/… Image
...
Mega-WHAT?!!!
Let´s hope that some operator spilled his chilled matcha on the calculation tablet and this is an error.
🤨
This shows a 12 hour long electricity shortage for Tokyo, tomorrow.
~2.6% capacity left.
web-kohyo.occto.or.jp/kks-web-public/ Image
Austria´s only refinery is still down.

"It is heavily damaged"
and needs to buy loads of pre-processed oil to make something useful from it.

Today it was decided that #Austria will accept lower national oil reserves...
parlament.gv.at/PAKT/PR/JAHR_2… Image
Due to "heavier refinery damage than expected"
a plastics producer from #Austria warns of "restricted availability and longer wait times for certain plastic products"...
kunststoffweb.de/branchen-news/… Image
Tokyo today:
the real picture is not as bad as predicted.

A short dip to ~3% power reserve
around 9 a.m.
Everything´s ~fine, for now...
web-kohyo.occto.or.jp/kks-web-public/ Image
The last days´ electricity shortage around Tokyo may have been just the prelude.

Usually summer heat starts later,
and nation-wide.
If the latest regional heatwave nearly required all power reserves, the ´real summer´ demand might just flatten them out.😵‍💫
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
The expected gas shortage lets Hamburg (Germany) think about rationing hot water.

Also:
"due to technical reasons we cannot guarantee gas supply for households, while cutting back gas for adjacent commercial users.
Restrictions apply to entire areas"
🙄
ndr.de/nachrichten/ha…
Also #Germany today:

~"There´ll be no prioritization,
in case we´d need to switch off power supplies.

So if you feel you´re critical infrastructure:
better get yourself some back-up generators..."
tagesspiegel.de/politik/energi… Image
One employer´s solution:

"We´ll send our employees back to homeoffice work.
😏
That´ll save us heating our facilities...
while they pay for their heating at home"
handelsblatt.com/dpa/wirtschaft… Image
Household gas boilers usually come with an essential safety device:
a ´flashback arrestor´
If gas pressure is too weak to push the flame outwards, the boiler shuts off.

Could happen to boilers of entire regions - all at once,
if network pressure drops.
faz.net/aktuell/wirtsc…
Housing cooperation restricts access hours to hot water...

(my landlord introduced this years ago already - so I was pleasantly surprised that "making" my own hot water with rustic methods brought unexpected luxury,
instead of a bleak caveman-like life😀)
mdr.de/nachrichten/sa…
Unfortunately,
some people already resort to dangerously improvised devices to try and save some energy costs...
(never improvise gas, coal, fire heating in a room.)

´Deadly explosion in UK possibly caused by camping stove used to save on energy costs.´
lbc.co.uk/news/bedford-e…
Austria´s refinery has
"cut off the top of its 50m fractionating tower,
so that rope access specialists can rappel down inside...
to clear out debris, right through to the basement."

😳... that thing has collapsed internally?!
diepresse.com/6161671/oester… Image
Until now,
Austria was ´confidently silent´ about the effects of their refinery´s breakdown.
~´it will work again, soon´
(2 weeks, 3 months, ...)

Now members of parliament demand answer to critical questions:
"are we prepared if it all doesn´t work out?"
parlament.gv.at/PAKT/VHG/XXVII… Image
Kazakhstan has no luck exporting crude oil to Europe anymore.

The day after a month long mine clearing (~80 year old sea mines at the russian transit port) ended,

some ´irregular findings´ in the oil spill response plan caused closure for one more month.
safety4sea.com/russian-court-…
For Europe, Kazakhstan´s oil exports aren´t a big deal (~7% of supply).

But for Austria, they´d supply 38.9% of crude oil.

But Austria is relaxed:
"No worries - our refinery is wrecked. We can´t use that oil anyway"
🤷
kleinezeitung.at/wirtschaft/616… Image
As Austria expects to be running low on Diesel,
they now try to replace their broken down refinery´s production by importing Diesel via rail cargo...

(guesstimate: 8~9,000m3 / day
=> 2~3 max size Jumbo Tanker trains per day)🤔
diepresse.com/6162650/railca…
Austria also has the idea to use ´their´ Italy-Vienna pipeline to transport other products than crude oil.

It´s tricky, as it´s in fact one single pipe, shared with 7 refineries in other countries.

If you mess this up,
~central Europe has no fuel...
🙄
tal-oil.com/en/transalpine… Image
Some districts in Germany already have contigency plans prepared:
in case of a widespread outage of gas supply, they would install centralized ´warm-up venues´, for those who can´t manage to keep themselves warm anymore.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
´Warm-up venues´ are easily installed.
But keeping them powered may become a headache.

Sometimes it may require thinking outside the usual track
(and even driving a locomotive off the track and down the main road...
like in Quebec, 1998)
Austria had planned to start up a decommissioned coal fired power plant for energy support in winter...

that plan won´t work out:

missing parts,
dismissed staff,
lack of coal fuel
and lack of transport capacity
mean:
it will go online in ~2023
diepresse.com/6163333/verbun… Image
06 a.m.
This morning,
gas flow through "Nord Stream 1" pipeline to Europe was halted completely.

(for 'planned maintenance measures')

nord-stream.info Image
Italy has now received news that their gas supply will also be reduced by a further 30% today.

(although it is not directly connected to Nord Stream 1)
eni.com/en-IT/media/ga… Image
"What happens if the Nord Stream 1 inspection finds irregularities?" That article has no answer,

🤔but what's the most disruptive thing to happen?:

Say that "repairs would take ~6 months... but there's a new pipeline right next to it. Just say yes."
😏
tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/tec… Image
Austria will scale up usage of their national fuel reserves,
⚠️
as "otherwise fuel supply would become increasingly difficult, even for primary clients and petrol stations"...
⚠️
orf.at/stories/327557… Image
Pretty dim outlook for Austria:

current replacement supply to substitute Austria´s broken down refinery can only make up for ~75% of demand.

And even this is hampered by all sorts of incidents.
wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/wi… Image
Austria´s parliament sitrep has a few more details:

supply to refinery customers has been limited to 80% of contract volume -
but even that has to be decided on a ~day-to-day basis.
🙄
parlament.gv.at/PAKT/PR/JAHR_2… Image
Surprisingly early warning from Russia about the future of Nord Stream 1.
For now, it´s just about papers.
Seems the ´crucial´😏 gas turbine hasn´t arrived yet...

if/when it arrives, there´ll be likely more issues to be found
I often read fuel heated households wouldn´t have to bother about a breakdown of gas supplies.

🙄Mind this: refineries need an awful lot of natural gas to make domestic fuel for heating.

It´s a real issue,
not just ´psychological´...
heizoel24.de/news/artikel/0… Image
In ordinary times, refineries make up 3% of Germany´s gas usage.
They´ve now reduced natural (pipeline) gas use by using
LNG (via tankers🙄)
and heating oil (produced in refineries😖)

But they will still need 1% of national gas supply to keep working.
presseportal.de/pm/159634/5271… Image
Due to lack of ´Nord Stream 1´ gas supply,
Germany has now already begun to use up its stored gas reserves (in the midst of summer),
🙄
instead of storing more for winter...
🥶
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
Certainly tapping Germany´s gas storage now: Uniper (usually Germany´s largest gas importer).
After their business model of selling cheap russian gas collapsed, they are still bound to their contracts,
making a ~50 mil € loss per day.
helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finlan… Image
Hey,...

If Germany activates all coal power plants
and utilities shy away from using gas (because it´s expensive as hell (~200 €/MWh)),
Germany´s electricity supply will still be secure in winter
and Europe would even save up to 112 TWh of Gas
🥳🙄
bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/A… Image
The tricky details:
while using all available coal power plants,
Germany itself will spare using
5.7 TWh of gas
for electricity generation

but will need additional
13 TWh gas
just for district heating (otherwise a byproduct from electricity generation)
😳
bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/D… Image
I guess this means:
"You can do whatever you want.
No gas for you anymore..."
The European Commission came up with a handy sketch today:
A ranking of who´s gonna be the LAST ones to save gas.

In order to
"minimise economic impacts and disruption of the internal market and supply chains"...
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Image
What about Germany switching from gas to coal?

Coal stocks at power plants currently last for ~1 week.
Resupply is difficult, due to lack of transport means

The current drought also causes low rivers - ships can only run half full...
dw.com/de/hitzewelle-… Image
The most important gauge at Germany´s most important river:

If the level at Kaub (Rhine) is below "80 cm", ships run a higher risk to run aground.
If you want cargo transported, you´ll need to pay a hefty risk surcharge.

~It´ll stay below 80 cm for weeks
vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorher… Image
BASF has one very special ship available:
a gas tanker, capable to navigate Rhine levels (Kaub gauge) down to "25 cm" (3 cm less than the all-time low of 2018).
Put into service at the end of 2021.

(still could be blocked by other grounded ships)
binnenschifffahrt-online.de/2021/01/featur…
Reduced flow also at #NordStream1.

The gas pipeline went back online this morning,
but with only 30% of flow capacity.
(Even less than before the 10 day maintenance)...

And soon, there´ll be more auverhaul.
Looks like #NordStream1 has no plans to increase the gas flow to Germany.

According to their website the current 30% flow is what Germany´s going to get for the foreseeable future...
nord-stream.info Image
Reacting to the non-improved gasflow,
Germany now increases its gas storage targets.

That will mean some cutback of gas use somewhere and certainly some discussions...
The increased mandatory gas storage is meant to put pressure on utilities to actually store gas (instead of selling it off for a fortune, like Uniper did...).
🤷
Spain and Portugal
think the gas issue doesn´t bother them.

"They noted that there are scant energy connections linking them to the rest of Europe and that they use very little Russian gas compared to fellow EU members such as Germany and Italy."
apnews.com/article/russia…
Finland is relieved that Germany´s deal to bailout Uniper means:
taxpayers in Finland will not have to pay.
yle.fi/news/3-12547290
Besides introducing a special cost allocation to all gas users,
Germany also annouced that from October
all utilities will be allowed to pass on most of their surging costs directly to their customers...
tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unt… Image
That surged quickly:

first communal utilities in Germany already announced that their prices will go up in October (as soon as possible)

Tübingen:
~electricity +25%
~gas +65%
swtue.de/unternehmen/ak…
Currently low Rhine river levels hamper usual oil product supply routes to Switzerland via barges.

Switzerland announced today they will now start to use their oil reserves, to make up for the shortfall...
argusmedia.com/en/news/235362… Image
Last night,
an explosion rocked one refienery (of two) in the Czech Republic.

The fire was brought under control, damage assessment was carried out today...
After damage assessment today,
the explosion hit refinery in the Czech Republic declared "Force Majeure" today:

"Oil processing is significantly reduced,
preventing the refinery from fulfilling contractual obigations...

thank you for your understanding"
orlenunipetrol.cz/cs/Media/Tisko… Image
Meanwhile,
Austria´s broken down only refinery annouced that welding might take significantly longer than expected,
so the restart might happen later than late September...
🙄
(Looks like Europe is running into tight supply issues)
kurier.at/wirtschaft/rep…
I´m not a diplomat, but I guess this roughly translates to:

~"Okay Germany,
you know what - keep your gas turbine and maybe build a wind turbine from it..."
Hungary makes it quite clear
that they prefer to become an energy island (as long as things go well for them)...
dailynewshungary.com/eu-to-take-awa… Image
One more gas turbine
´needs to be shut down´...

That will limit gas supply via #NordStream1
to ~20% capacity
(down from ~40% now).
🤷
Image
"The gas supply situation is slightly (!) tense..."

(Germany judging the (then) situation.
That might change soon, now that supply was reduced by half again...)
Repairs on the exploded refinery unit in the Czech Republic is estimated to take 2~3 weeks.
Fuel production will be reduced but ´petrol stations won´t be affected´ (they will be supplied from fuel stocks...)
Today at 8 a.m.,
#NordStream1 will reduce its gas flow further...

´according to plan´ it will run with ~20% of max capacity then.
nord-stream.info Image
Germany
"Dear customer, we´d like to inform you that your gas supply is secure.
We´d also like to inform you that your gas price will increase by 500%"

(btw: administrative costs also rise 4-fold...🤨)
Looks like Hungary is running into problems:
MOL, their only refinery, is shut down for maintenance.

Their other major supply (Austria´s refinery) is still not functioning (for ~months to come).

Imports are difficult.
🤷
Hungary is using up reserves now.
budapesttimes.hu/hungary/govern… Image
Looks like Hungary´s refinery maintenance shut down is scheduled to last for 2 months.

National oil reserves typically cover a 90 day period...
🤨but only if you have a running refinery that can make fuel from your crude oil reserve
hungarianconservative.com/articles/curre… Image
Australia just discovered they´ll have a gas shortage coming,
so they plan on diverting LNG gas meant for export to the domestic market
(~14 LNG tankers)
minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/king… Image
The Swiss 🇨🇭don't tend to be alarmistic.
So if they say
"Diesel & Heating fuel supply is barely sufficient. Storage is extremely low. Situation very tense."

it's as bad as it sounds (at least)

To blame: low river levels
and underperforming German railway
bwl.admin.ch/dam/bwl/de/dok… Image
"It causes darkness, poverty, sadness,
and will scare away tourists and customers"
😱
Apparently Madrid community's president has a strong aversion against switching off the lights in shop windows at 10 p.m. to save some energy...
Some petrol stations in Bavaria now start to run low on fuel (some are temporarily out of fuel).

Reasons:
- low river levels - ships run with less cargo
- COVID19 infections - substantially reducing railway cargo staff
- refinery maintenance / break-down
br.de/nachrichten/ba… Image
Just checked:
this is a coal barge delivery,
with "maximum possible load at current Rhine water levels".
😳
All the way from Amsterdam to South Germany.
The ship is only ~30% full, I'd guess... Image
Today's Rhine reference level (Kaub):
"61cm"

Forecast in 2 weeks: ~20cm less (!)
🤔
(Note: the coal barge today had a draft of ~0.2 m
It will not run at all, in 2 weeks)😵
vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorher… Image
"The Rhine river may become unsuitable for any cargo transport..."
as soon as this weekend (!)
⚠️
welt.de/wirtschaft/art… Image
uhm, yeah... your gas turbine...
🙄
Last night,
a "brief dip" in the regional power supply´s voltage triggered a short blackout in Cologne (Germany).

This irregularity then caused the Cologne Shell refinery to automatically switch the entire site "off"...

All units went offline.
koeln.de/koeln/nachrich… Image
According to Shell,
their Cologne refinery provides 10% of Germany´s fuel
and 15% of Germany´s kerosene.

They think it will now take several days to restart the site...
shell.de/ueber-uns/stan… Image
Meanwhile,
a new timeline for Austria´s broken down refinery:

"we don´t know for sure... but we´d like to be back to full operations in September... or October..."
(the base of that ~40m high distillation tower needs "reinforcement" 😳)
noen.at/schwechat/schw… Image
🙄Here we go...

2 coal power plants in Germany "may have to cut output as they struggle to get fuel supplies along the Rhine river.

'Irregular' operations might last until early September...
because of limited volumes of coal on site."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Funny "fact check" from France´s major energy provider EDF:

~"The heat causes nuclear power plants to not work properly?
FAKE!
They´re built for extreme climate.
If we lower output, it´s because we´re not allowed to boil aquatic life in the rivers"~
🙄
Image
Who else remembers the summer of 2003,
when an ingenious engineer saved the old EDF nuclear power plant in Fessenheim (F) and its operators from overheating (avoided 50°C inside🥵),
by installing lawn sprinklers to cool down the reactor building...
💦♨️
ina.fr/ina-eclaire-ac… Image
However,
starting today EDF will be forced to lower output from several nuclear power stations
´due to the heatwave´

(cooling water from the sites would heat up adjacent rivers too much, so that aquatic life would get damaged)
At least one of the "too hot" nuclear power plants in France won´t be allowed to shut down completely.

They´ll need to stay on low standby.
Too many sites are offline. The grid might become unbalanced, so they might need to jump to full generation quickly
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/occitanie/tarn…
It was a risky gamble
to start a full maintenance shutdown of OMV´s Bavaria refinery, while their main refinery in Austria was already broken down.

Hopes were that stored fuel would cover demand until the refinery was up and running again (next monday)
Seems OMV Bavaria´s plan did not work.

⚠️They apparently stopped deliveries of heating oil and diesel to wholesalers today⚠️

Reason:
"excessive orders"

Looks like they ran out of fuel early.
And the refinery will restart later than monday, too...
yahoo.com/now/german-oil… Image
If those numbers are right,
🤔
there were ~no gas savings Germany in July
compared to last year.

Looks like a "let it rip" mindset,
like: "the winter will be mild. It´s only those with preconditions who will suffer..."🙄
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
"Everyone is taking electricity for granted - we´d better change that attitude"

🇨🇭Switzerland is being told to prepare for power outages in winter, "if France can´t fulfill its role as major supplier for Switzerland"
(Swiss dams would last for 2~6 weeks)
bernerzeitung.ch/elcom-chef-rae…
🤔If I read these charts right...
it´s already predictable how little energy France will supply to Europe, this winter.

(example: while 🇫🇷 supplied ~9TWh to 🇨🇭 in second half of 2021,
this year it might only be 0.299 TWh
- that´s ~97% less...) 🙄
energy-charts.info/charts/energy/… Image
🇩🇪Germany:
That annoying little asterisk in today´s gas sitrep update says:

"data updates suggest that we didn´t save as much gas in June as we´d previously thought..."

🤷
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
New modelling from Germany:

"if we save at least 20% gas (at the moment we don´t)
and we keep 20% of exports to ourselves (🙄)
we might just make it through this winter... (maybe not the next)"

(in case #NordStream1 keeps running at 20% of max capacity)
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
Germany keeping parts of gas exports to itself...
is a disruptive idea.

Most of 🇩🇪 gas transits go to Czechia -
and Czechia thinks that
"~Germany will stop part of its industry and share the gas, if Czechia has not enough to heat homes and hospitals"
parlamentnilisty.cz/arena/monitor/… Image
Norway's hydropower is usually a reliable (and ~cheap) energy source.
UK & Germany have installed new connections, which could save them through this winter's energy crisis...
but Norway suffers from a "dry year" this year.

They may need to import energy.
aftenbladet.no/meninger/debat…
Norway's energy minister just announced that
"refilling dams will be prioritised over power production (and exports!)⚡️⚠️ when levels fall below the seasonal average".

(Otherwise, with low dam levels, they'd need to ration energy early next year...)
theguardian.com/money/2022/aug… Image
According to Norway´s energy minister,
South Norway (Norway´s powerhouse) already has to import energy from other regions.😯

Seems like he does believe neither Europe nor weather conditions would guarantee a secure power supply for Norway in the future.
regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/red… Image
Some ´organisatory turmoil´ has led to a complete stop of oil deliveries from Russia to Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia.

For Hungary, not much changes (at the moment),
but if they need to tap alternate sources, their artificially cheap fuel prices are gone.
444.hu/2022/08/09/a-m… Image
At the moment, petrol stations in Hungary intermittently run out of fuel sorts.
The country´s 2 major supply refineries (Százhalombatta🇭🇺, Vienna🇦🇹) are currently not running.

If Slovakia and Czechia cease as well, there might be... issues🤨
hungary.postsen.com/news/42427/Ind…
Czechia usually gets ~50% of its oil supplied by Russia.
Their reserves would last 3 months.

Slovakia is ~100% dependent on russian oil.
They will hold a press conference about the situation, today...
czechia.postsen.com/news/29524/The… Image
Slovakia and Hungary have found a ~diplomatic (monetary) way to get the oil from Russia running again...
slovnaft.sk/sk/o-nas/pre-m… Image
Looks like cargo transport along the Rhine river to South Germany would (literally) grind to a halt...
(if anyone would really dare to navigate the river's remains at a reference level below 40 cm...)
elwis.de/DE/dynamisch/g… Image
A ray of hope:
a change in Europe's current weather pattern might lead to occasional rain showers, soon.
~helping to fight wildfires
~rising river levels (at least a bit, not enough for full loads, though)
vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorher… Image
#Germany #Rhine
+++FULL STOP+++

"No significant rain expected in the coming days.
Navigation (container barges) on Upper & Middle Rhine discontinued.
Alternate trucking capabilities are limited.
..
contargo.net/en/news/2022-0… Image
#Germany #Rhine
Interesting point

Germany´s largest refinery (Karlsruhe, Upper Rhine)
sees no issues with getting crude oil (is supplied via pipeline from Italy)
but with distributing their products:

23% of production would be transported via tank barges
sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/sch… Image
End of the line.

They even tried to use an excavator to clear a waterway for their ferry.
But the water dropped too fast:
"We're scraping the riverbed with our hull"...

Another ferry across the Rhine out of service: 30 km detour using the next bridge.
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe… Image
Looks like the Rhine river level might be "too low for barge cargo transport", this entire week.

The current rain showers may add some water (~next week), but that "wave" might be too short-lived to make a delivery AND return safely...
vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorher… Image
#Germany #Rhine:
"Coal from ship to rail? That´s not a topic for now - we´ll act when it´s an emergency"🙄

"But our container terminals are running full - if they´re at 100%, no-one can bring new containers. So factories will have to stop production..."😳
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#Germany #Rhine:
"Today we loaded 3 barges, each with only ~30%.

(only ~100 containers transported in a day(!) - usually one single ship hauls ~150)

Seems our container terminals will run out of stacking places by mid next week..."
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe…
#Norway:
"We are exporting as much gas as we possibly can.
In addition to pipeline supply we initiated LNG shipments from the far North (+10%)...."

(Norway now supplies ~30% of #Germany´s gas demand)

"To export more, we´d need to develop more gas fields"
zeit.de/politik/auslan…
After it became clear that #Norway´s hydropower dams might receive too little water this year, an urgent solution was needed:

Energy exports might be reduced - not blocked completely, but as much as needed to secure enough energy for Norway itself...
tv2.no/a/15009775 Image
There was a real upheaval in #Norway last week, when someone came to mind that #Germany´s railways DB had bought up an entire hydro-dam´s "production" for 10 years. 🇳🇴😱

(was announced ~a year ago,
would be enough to cover ~2% of DB railways demand🙄)
gruen.deutschebahn.com/de/news/gruene… Image
There was some real headscratching in #Norway🤔
when Statkraft pointed out last week, that #Germany´s DB would not actually get the power produced by the hydrodam.

Only the certificates for "green" energy.
The electricity would be produced in Germany.
nrk.no/norge/statkraf… Image
BTW:
~20% Of Germany´s DB railways energy demand is produced in this (brand new, highly disputed) coal power plant.

It is one of the few that has NO RAIL ACCESS,
thus is entirely dependent on barge transport...
🙄
(brings us back to #Rhine river levels)
google.de/maps/place/Kra… Image
October 2018: last "century drought" in Germany
(Lower Rhine levels were actually higher than today)
- no big coal issues (gas power stations were ready), no heating problems despite heating season - gas was cheap, then
- a few petrol stations out of fuel
rp-online.de/nrw/panorama/n… Image
Yeah, if everyone would scramble to fill their tanks now there might be some fuel shortage - but thankfully there´s no logical reason that anyone...

🇩🇪:📢"REMEMBER: state fuel sponsoring will run out in 2 weeks !!!
Go and fill up your car now !!!!"

🙄😖
spiegel.de/wirtschaft/tan… Image
Frankfurt Airport gets its kerosene by barges?

Not so much, at the moment.
They are still supplied by 2 pipelines, though...

(but someone along these pipelines will get less oil now, no?🤔)
argusmedia.com/en/news/236051… Image
"To resolve the heating fuel shortage in Southern Germany, an improvised pipeline was installed..."

(Winter 1962/63,
rivers were frozen, coal & fuel couldn't be transported.
That pipeline broke, but the effort is interesting...)
dserver.bundestag.de/btd/04/025/040… Image
🇨🇭 Switzerland thinks the nation could save up to 30% electricity, if the need arises.

They also prepare for rolling blackouts
(4 hours power on, 4 hours off), in case supply still wouldn't be enough...
ostral.ch/de/document/os… Image
From 2015 to 2020 experts evaluated 44 risks that might endanger #Switzerland.

The most destructive risk they found was:
💡energy shortage🕯️

(Their scenario was: 16 weeks of electricity shortage in a harsh winter, 2 weeks with rolling blackouts)
babs.admin.ch/de/aufgabenbab… Image
France still has a ~positive mindset,
despite many of their nuclear power plants suffering a common mode failure (corrosion) that keeps them from producing power.

They hope ~someone will send them energy, if they only pay enough...
Right, that future outlook (~1,200 €/MWh) is too shocking.

Let´s look back:
one year ago, electricity was ~1/10th of today´s price (~500 €/MWh at midnight) in many countries...
😳
rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/mar… Image
Announced today:
A major aluminium producer in Slovakia will shut its plant,
due to high electricity costs.

(160,000 t yearly production, 70% for export)
(Note: ~50% owned by Norsk Hydro, but that couldn´t help either)
hydro.com/en/media/news/…
Slovalco´s major problem: their energy contract ran out right now, so they´d have to buy energy for current prices...

Others are lucky: they bought energy long ago (far lower price than today).
Today they don´t produce aluminium🙄,
they sell their energy.
beschaffung-aktuell.industrie.de/rohstoffe/alum… Image
It´s not entirely clear what the reasons are,
but a key Euopean zinc smelter has announced to halt production for now.

(might be that energy is too expensive to buy... or to lucrative to sell...)

Market price for zinc is exploding.
mining.com/zinc-price-hit… Image
That's it, then.

The #Rhine is blocked,
close to the neuralgic points "Loreley" & Kaub.
🙁
A veritable traffic jam of (partly loaded) barges is already forming...
vesselfinder.com Image
An engine failure... 😣
in the worst of all places (navigation-wise) along the Rhine.
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe…
Switzerland sees
too little rainfall to fill their dams,
not enough gas in Germany,
too many nuclear power plants offline in France...

They think energy shortage is not just hypothetical, but a real risk, this winter.
engadinerpost.ch/2022/08/17/Kan… Image
Switzerland announced some detailed (micro-managed?) energy contingency plan today:

besides 1~2 new gas power plants (capable to run with oil) they think about synchronising 300 private back-up generators😯

and increasing voltage in transfer cables...
admin.ch/gov/de/start/d… Image
Well 🤷
Germany is currently using more gas to produce electricity than before...

(electricity export to France has increased 6-fold, to Switzerland even more - this could explain it)
tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/kon… Image
Actually,
Germany was already hinting to the increased gas use (especially by/for France) in a special report, a month ago:

"bringing Germany´s coal power stations online could safe EU from using 26 TWh of Gas - (only) 5,7 TWh of them in Germany..."
Norway (!):
"Electricity prices are now so high that the company runs a significant deficit every month.

The Indian owners did not want to continue with this."
Electricity shortage in Norway? Obviously not.

Norway produces more electricity than it can use (at the moment 🇧🇻exports ~28% of its production).
Virtually ~all of it is renewable energy.
statnett.no/for-aktorer-i-… Image
Norway's problem:
New powerful cables to EU/UK, where electricity prices are exploding.
(Norway's price follows)

Norway's 'luck': weak connections in Norway itself -
while North Norway has abundant energy, they can't transfer much to the South.
statnett.no/for-aktorer-i-… Image
Some say '~Europe sucks up South Norway's energy'.
People in South Norway face difficulties with surging energy prices (right now: ~520€/MWh around Kristiansand)

The 'detached North' doesn't notice much: their energy is as cheap as always (1.23 €/MWh)
nrk.no/vestfoldogtele… Image
Price surge also impacts Lithuania:
An energy supplier just collapsed after unsuccessfully trying to squeeze its customers to pay 'the real daily price (4 €/KWh)' instead of their fixed old price (0.30€/KWh)...

Customers terminated contracts in masses.
lrt.lt/en/news-in-eng…
Lithuania´s animated dashboard shows how tight their energy situation is:
national energy production only makes up for a fraction (~30%) of demand.

Most energy is imported from Poland and especially Sweden...
litgrid.eu/index.php/dash… Image
The Sweden - Lithuania power cable is now "crucial".

Usually there´d be a scheduled maintenance soon.
It was just announced that "this will have to wait"...
until November.

In hope that the energy situation will then have become better 🙄...somehow.
lrt.lt/en/news-in-eng… Image
Well, priorities...
#NordStream1 will be halted again.

"It is necessary to carry out maintenance every 1,000 hours..."🤷

Says Gazprom.
insiderpaper.com/nord-stream-ga…
"It´s Siemens´ technical specifications..."
(demanding controls every 1,000 hours)

If only there was a spare turbine🙄

Let´s hope that no flaws in the Siemens crew´s papers will make it ´difficult´ to start the job in time... 🤞
Image
Sichuan (China) is home to major solar & battery producers.
They have been ordered to shut down for ~a week,
as a severe drought is causing serious shortage of hydropower...
voi.id/en/amp/202207/…
Power rationing in Sichuan (due to drought induced hydropower shortage) is making it difficult to charge electric vehicles...

Many charging stations are shut down.
yicaiglobal.com/news/power-rat… Image
Looks like drought stricken Sichuan/Chongqing are currently sucking up ~all of China´s spare energy.

China says ´utility systems are combined and power from as far as Liaoning (near Korea) is being diverted´ to keep the region running...
globaltimes.cn/page/202208/12… Image
Meanwhile in 🇳🇴Norway:
Officials are afraid a better North-South power connection would mean
~the current price explosion in the South would then reach North Norway
(where energy is so cheap that hydropower owners now fear they are going bankrupt...)🤷
nrk.no/vestland/lage-… Image
As their payrise of ~8% doesn´t cover the surging cost of living (UK: 10.1% inflation), port workers of UK´s most important container port are now on strike.

"Disruption is the new normal. The supply chain has moved from
'just in time to
just in case',"
news.sky.com/story/almost-2…
🗺️Worldwide overview:

Five industries buckling under energy crisis
(products that may become more expensive / difficult to get, soon):

-Aluminium
-Zinc
-Copper
-Lithium
-Polysilicon (for solar industry etc.)
-Fertiliser
-Sugar

(non-exhaustive list)
moneyweb.co.za/mineweb/five-v…
Not affected by high energy prices (as in mid #Norway, where hyropower is affordable), but workers at 2 aluminium plants go on strike today.

Hydro Sunndal is Europe´s largest Alu plant. 20% Production will be shut down ´to start with´...
aluminiuminsider.com/workers-go-on-…
~"You can´t just switch an aluminium oven off/on again,
it takes MONTHS to restart, once it is down."

Another aluminium producer (Alcoa in Mosjøen) will be (partly) shut down by worker´s strike today...
(1/3rd of Europe´s beverage cans has alu from there)
nrk.no/nordland/alcoa… Image
An analyst is (not🤔) worried:
"We will see complete demand destruction, and those holding metal are going to want to sell it [as soon as possible].

The loss of units currently doesn’t make up for the amount of demand that has left the market”
😳
fastmarkets.com/insights/europ…
Germany's steel producers:
-one seeks exemption from gas rationing (~'Hey, we're making the LNG pipelines you need!')
-others plan on shifting production to elsewhere...

All see demand will be more disrupted than production.
argusmedia.com/en/news/236269… Image
Not a good time for bargaining...
Everything seems to become scarce.

🪫Energy,
🏗️scrap (due to a lack of new products, old products won´t get scrapped)
and... 🧑‍🏭workforce (as a result of #COVID19) 🤷
argusmedia.com/en/news/236323… Image
One thing to mind:🌞
if your home´s PV is synchronized to the grid...
it will simply switch off, if the grid goes ´off´.⚫️
No independent energy supply for you (unless you have installed a deconnector switch - only ~5% in Austria´s Vorarlberg have it)🔀
vorarlberg.orf.at/stories/316997…
As firewood sees high demand (and high prices), an increase of theft from the woods is registered in South-West Germany.
🪵🪓
Authorities announce they´ll now be marking the woodpiles with GPS trackers 📡🛰️ to deter potential thieves...
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
In 2019 Norway issued a catalogue of
´Disasters that may affect Norwegian Society´

´Pandemic´ was regarded as the greatest risk
(it happens ~once every 100 years and causes large losses).
#COVID19 turned out half as bad as they had expected (until today).
dsb.no/rapporter-og-e… ImageImage
Norway also thought of a "Long Term Power Rationing" scenario.
It was deemed to be quite unlikely (~once every 1,000 years).🙄
Losses would be mostly monetary (and ~100 unfortunate deaths, ~500 injuries during 2~3 months power rationing in one region)
dsb.no/globalassets/d… ImageImage
Norway is now updating their 2019 "Long-Term Power Rationing" scenario.

~"The situation now is far worse than the scenario back then"
😳

(🤔most likely the event´s probabilty would change
and also the scale of affected regions)
nrk.no/vestland/strau… Image
To cut down power consumption
the government of #Bangladesh has ordered shortened opening hours for offices, banks and schools.

Also to "remove curtains to get natural lights"
☀️🫠
dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/202… Image
Bangladesh is in short supply of power and this year also: rain.
The energy (and time) conserved by shortened office hours is ment to help Bangladesh´s farmers irrigate the rice paddies
(with pumps, due to missing rain...)
dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/202… Image
To replace gas usage,
Germany is starting up another coal power station.

The operating company (Uniper) already warns
~"power production might be patchy, rail capacity for coal supply is too limited..."
🤦
www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/we… Image
Germany wants to restart two more "Standby" power stations (coal)...

The issue:
they´re technically ready to start any time
but they haven´t got (legally) sufficient coal on site.
🤦
Due to a lack of railway staff & rail cars they might start in November.
sr.de/sr/home/nachri… Image
The strike in Norway has an impact on all sorts of metal and alloys for Europe...
mining.com/web/boliden-de… Image
Aluminium production in Europe has already been shrinking considerably this year
and some are already planning to cut off more of their energy intensive production...
"deeply loss making if fully exposed to prevailing energy prices"
mining.com/web/german-alu… Image
Norway (and surely some customers) is relieved:
the ´historic´ strike threatening to shut down supply industries (relevant for all of Europe) is over before it caused too much damage...
nrk.no/nyheter/indust… Image
(Still not ending: today was the 4th day in a row with new records for electricity prices in ~South Norway...)

A crafts tradition about to go extinct?
~10 of ~30 glassblowers in Norway have already given up, as they can´t afford to run their kilns.
nrk.no/vestland/hoye-… Image
Energy saving, German style.
(A new wicked ordinance, issued today)

~´Ordinary people at their workplaces shall enjoy AT LEAST the temperature that we´ve set as MAXIMUM for workspaces in public buildings´

🤔uhmmm,... okayyyy. You´re sure you meant that?
bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/D… Image
🤯I thought Germany´s COVID rules were complicated but hey -
energy saving rules are worse:

"Minimum required and maximum allowed temperatures at public workplaces are identical.
Of course you can´t do that - but do your best😁"

I got that wrong again?🤨
bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/D… Image
Although some decent rain lets the Rhine (and Waal & Lek) rise a bit again...
Too much is too much
(reportedly the stuck ship had a draught of 2.10 m - while water depth at this spot was only 1.8 m)
"All EU plants are going down one by one...."

🧐Note that this map is outdated and overly optimistic.
A couple more producers have halted fertiliser production in the week that passed since then.
One of Germany´s major fertilzer (and urea) producers threatens to shut down its plant if they won´t receive "gas subsidies to get them back into fair competition with producers in other countries"
mdr.de/nachrichten/sa… Image
SKW is also a major ´AdBlue´ (Diesel Exhaust Fluid) producer.
So, a production stop would lead to...
~not necessarily empty shelves, but "we´d end up importing the same product from countries that still have cheap gas"
(as it was clarified in an interview)
businessinsider.de/politik/deutsc… Image
Exporting US cheap(er) LNG to Europe will be difficult for longer than expected...

The offline (after an explosion in June) Freeport LNG export terminal is planning to restart ´initial production in November.
(was expected for ~early October, 3 weeks ago)
freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.a… Image
The 5th day with record electricity prices in parts of Norway...

⚡️"There´s not enough energy for everyone in Europe.
So you have to raise prices until consumers start disconnecting🔌
That´s how the market should work.
It´s a controlled shutdown..."
e24.no/olje-og-energi… Image
Consumers started disconnecting in Estonia, last week.
(When demand/production was not in balance, but missed the production equivalent of
~half a wind turbine~
the energy price exploded to 4,000 €/MWh
in one specific hour.)
news.err.ee/1608688696/con…
For some companies, the energy roller coaster is just too much:

"businesses spent as much on electricity in 2 hours as they would normally do in 2 days"

Fertiliser producer Achema now decided to close its Lithuania plant ~until end of the year.
lrt.lt/en/news-in-eng… Image
Energy price,
contributing to inflation.

The picture is distorted: many countries have introduced price caps. Some of them will run out (Germany´s fuel subsidies run out next week, Hungary has already modified its subsidies, as they became unsustainable)
A major gas consumer disconnecting:
Fertiliser / urea giant Yara will reduce its European production further (shutting down additional plants in France and the Netherlands) and rather import products.
newsweb.oslobors.no/message/569621 Image
Fertilizer demand may also drop.
The supermarket carrots you may buy in March are harvested now,
then stored at ~0°C/95% humidity.

Electricity costs (45,000 KWh per month for these farmers) are so high that instead of pulling carrots they'll pull the plug
nrk.no/rogaland/strom… Image
🤔I don´t really think that Bavaria´s refineries work just 5 hours a day...😴
It may be the loading racks, yes - maybe the fuel stocks currently are limited, so they are only loading tank trucks a limited time per day.
merkur.de/lokales/dachau… Image
And then there´s OMV´s Bavarian refinery...

It was scheduled to restart operations after maintenance in ´~early August´.

But due to ´unforeseeable delays´ in their crude oil processing unit
it may now be ´mid September´...
🤷
pnp.de/lokales/landkr… Image
Interesting new feature in Germany´s gas sitrep:
A chart with gas use reduction of Germany´s industry.
(Compared to 2018-2021 average, industry used 21.3% less in June.
~1,000 GWh per day would be ~31 TWh per month, just for industry use)
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
With this old tweet (where Germany´s overall gas usage was indicated as:
39.6 TWh in June)
it´s simple guessing that industry makes up for ~3/4 of Germany´s gas demand during summer months.

(yeah, no-brainer,
gas heating of private homes is usually off)
"CO2 crisis will lead to food shortages..."

This. Again.
🤦Oh, the humanity.
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
The last UK "#CO2 crisis" happened just one year ago.
It was triggered when gas became too expensive (due to high demand after ´COVID was over´) for fertilizer production
and so a chain reaction went off.

Obviously no-one thought about changing anything.
Beerbrewer Carlsberg in Poland is ´running out of #CO2´
and therefore plans to ´stop beer production almost immediately´.

"Most beer companies will have to do the same...
unless they have facilities to produce their own CO2"

(...uhm🙄😁)
politico.eu/article/alarm-… Image
Due to its shocking headline
"CO2 shortage may make beer more expensive"😱🍺
this article is copied by news outlets in Germany today.

Most copies are missing this part:
"Fermenting beer creates more than enough #CO2."
You can capture it.
businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/ver… Image
9 days after a (still) rare but devastating Derecho🌬️,
damages in Austria are provisionally fixed.

Even a 220 KV interregional power line had been cut.
While things ´work again´, it will take weeks to fully restore them.

Services run out of spare parts.
steiermark.orf.at/stories/317083… Image
Austria´s planned modification of one gas power station into a coal powered one is on hold.

Somehow the question ´who´s gonna pay?´ popped up.
The owner says coal contract deadlines would run out now, so the project won´t start this heating season.
steiermark.orf.at/stories/317085… Image
Meanwhile a new polarising dispute is popping up in Germany:

#COVID19 protection vs. energy conservation

Opening windows for aeration and waste heat?
Switch off the COVID air filter to save energy?

🤷
br.de/nachrichten/de…
Must be frustrating:
Germany´s Umweltbundesamt has been advocating for a very long time for real improvements in school ventilation (combined with energy savings):

Their works from early 2000´s still served as pandemic guidelines
umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/…
Image
With fertilizer plants shutting down,
there´s also a shut down of their other (by)products:

CO2 (not only in beer, but also as inert gas for packaged food)
Dry ice (for cool-chain guarantee during transport)
Nitric acid (for hygiene in food production)
😳
rp.pl/przemysl-spozy…
Tomorrow evening,
the price for electricity in South-West #Norway will be ~100 times of what people in Northern Norway pay.
🤔🧮
nrk.no/nyheter/ny-str… Image
I can imagine Electric Vehicle owners from all over North Norway planning on making a fortune by smuggling energy to he South...😏
Buying energy for Vienna (Austria) has now become so expensive, that Vienna´s utility services can´t finance it alone. The city of Vienna had to inject some finances.
Now there´s talk that even Austria (the state) needs to support Vienna...⚡️💰
orf.at/stories/328294…
The deposits to buy Vienna´s energy will ´amount to ~1.7 billion €, early this week´
(unclear for what amount of energy).

´that sum will be returned when the deal is done´.

(Who´s gonna pay for that energy in the end?🤔)
🙄
"Norway's electricity, would be 25% cheaper if it had no cable connections to UK & Germany..."

oh, well...
that's certainly true.
nrk.no/nyheter/analys… Image
Norway is currently using the cables to UK & Germany to import electricity, as it is cheaper...↔️
(and sometimes there's not even enough supply generated in Norway to cover its own demand)
🤷
statnett.no/for-aktorer-i-… Image
🇳🇴Norway's government has come under public pressure to limit energy exports (in hope that domestic prices would fall).
So much that grid operators of 🇸🇪🇫🇮🇩🇰 issued a concerned warning last week.
en.energinet.dk/About-our-news… Image
Oh,
Germany found that its gas storage is already ~83% full (instead of ~75%, as expected for this time).

That awesome boost will carry us through the crisis...
🙄
In fact,
having 83% in gas storage is far better than Germany´s best(?) case scenario (purple line) predicted ~4 weeks ago

scenario was: imports +15 GW / demand -20% / export -20%
🤔
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
Obviously,
Germany´s gas imports have not increased at all (but decreased ~25%) since the reference date (July 4).

scenario was: imports +15 GW (❌nope, didn´t happen)
demand -20% (yep, that happened - mostly industry😳)
export -20% (?)
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
"As Germany´s gas storage is filling up faster than expected, gas prices will soon start to decline..."

(🤔 Just like: I filled up my car and tomorrow the price will plummet?)
zdf.de/nachrichten/po…
🤦D´oh!
So what exactly happened to Vienna´s utility services?

"last Friday, energy futures exploded from 700€ to 1,000 within one day..."

They already used the 1.8 billion € helpline of Vienna city, now they ask for 6 billion more from Austria (state)
😳
ots.at/presseaussendu… Image
What if #WienEnergie wouldn´t get the credits?

~"They´d immediately be excluded from energy trading
and ~2 million clients´ energy contracts would go bust"

(that´s ~a quarter of #Austria´s inhabitants)
orf.at/stories/328301… Image
Apparently electricity prices go crazy
because someone thinks Austrians will all be okay with paying 2~3 times of today´s crazy price, 6 months from now?

What happens if they´d rather save energy instead 🤔?
It has already been paid - use it or loose it?
eex.com/de/marktdaten/… Image
Turns out #Fortum in Finland has ~the same problem as #WienEnergie in Austria.
⚡️💰🤷💰⚡️
They're pointing to their bail-out deal with Germany (making 🇩🇪 pay, much to Finland's relief).
They suggest Finland's government should do the same for Fortum now...
yle.fi/uutiset/3-1259… Image
Oh...
🧻 Finnish tissue maker Metsä has switched its plants to 'production on day-by-day basis' (whenever energy is affordable).

'This may also impact the availability of toilet paper in the markets'...
www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/rh…
😯When I met this family-owned papermaker ~10+ years ago, they said "without our own energy, we couldn't survive".

Meanwhile
they developped an entire renewable energy branch
and seem to be quite happy:
"Early investment in renewables is now paying off"🙂
koehlerpaper.com/en/news/public… Image
Tomorrow will be Turbine Day again.

The brave Siemens crew only has 3 days.
Will they solve all the riddles and get the turbine ready in time to save Europe´s gas supply?
The scheduled flow reduction of #NordStream1 is approaching ...
(starting very early tomorrow morning, not quite "Zero" yet)
nord-stream.info Image
In the meantime
every expert tries to cheer up the public with his favorite opinion

"Shell CEO says that high energy prices, fuel rationing could last for years"

(🙄I remember 2020:
"Shell in court over claims it hampered fossil fuels phase-out"...)
offshore-mag.com/regional-repor…
Shell apparently didn´t like the dutch court´s ruling (ordering them to simply reduce CO2 emissions).

Shell claimed
"a fundamental change across the whole energy system"
would be needed...

😏well... go ahead then.
shell.com/media/news-and… Image
Off.
#NordStream1

nord-stream.info Image
Earlier, a breakdown of #NordStream1 gas flow to Germany might have been compensated by increased gas flow through the Yamal pipeline (Belarus-Poland-Germany).

Since early 2022, Yamal has inverted flow.↪️
It is needed to supply Poland via Germany.
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
Poland also invested considerable effort to get vast new pipeline connections.
One to Slovakia/Mediterranean has just opened.
The other (´Baltic Pipe´) would plug directly into the Norway-Germany pipe and get gas to Poland via Denmark (ready ~in October)
gie.eu/baltic-pipe/ Image
Nasty detail:
Poland has not achieved a contract with Norway to supply gas via the brandnew ´Baltic Pipe´ pipeline, yet.

And as with Germany, ~several weeks ago,
Norway´s answer to Poland was
~"we can´t pump more than we already do"
🤷
polennu.dk/polen-har-ikke… Image
Even if EU gas storage is ~80% full:
"To avert a winter supply crisis, countries would need to cut gas use by 15% (Germany: 20~25%)"...
(to have 26~45% left in storage next year)
Hey Germany?!

#EnjoyWhileItLasts #GönnDir!

(Today's updated gas sitrep shows Germany's July gas consumption was higher than in 2021)
🤷
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
It was meant to be a short inspection & refuel operation,
but somehow in the final tests before restarting, the pressure vessel(!) of Sweden´s Ringhals 4 nuclear reactor got damaged😵‍💫

Instead of supplying power again it will now need repairs
for ~3 months
sverigesradio.se/artikel/nuclea…
Sweden´s grid provider has quickly done an updated risk assessment:

~"With Ringhals 4☢️ down, #Sweden will need energy imports for more than the usual 36 hours - and this energy may not be available.
The risk of (regional) power cuts⚫️ has become real."
svk.se/press-och-nyhe… Image
2nd Notice from #Sweden´s grid provider:
~Another reactor will go into maintenance.
~with now 2 reactors being offline, power reserves will decrease even more
~energy transmission in Sweden 🇸🇪, but also internationally (🇩🇰, 🇳🇴) may be affected
~prices:🆙
svk.se/press-och-nyhe… Image
What would happen when 🇩🇪state sponsoring of fuel would run out? (happened last night):
"Oil companies have noted that consumers were willing to accept high prices (beyond 2€), earlier this year.
So record fuel prices will return - and are here to stay".
nordbayern.de/wirtschaft/exp… Image
Meanwhile
in #Hungary:
Both major supply refineries (🇦🇹 OMV &🇭🇺 MOL) are still under maintenance.
Supply is ´enough´ (but goes mostly to ~selected clients)

The article has it about ´permanent panic buying´🙄, due to constant uncertainties...
hvg.hu/kkv/20220831_O… Image
Meanwhile in 🇳🇴Norway:
As electricity prices go up and up, major charging providers for electric vehicles are raising roadside charging costs by ~75%.

´Fast charging costs as much as refuelling, now´
(their tip: charge at home, the state will sponsor it)
e24.no/privatoekonomi…
Looks like if everything goes ´according to plan´,
#NordStream1 will simply be switched on again tomorrow
(with 20% of max. capacity, of course)
nord-stream.info Image
Some coal fired power plants in Germany are preparing to replace gas

One plant (Bexbach) has now achieved to store (not quite) enough coal to run the plant for ~2 weeks...
🙄
´We have 80,000 tons in place,
just 100,000 more missing for ~30 days operation´
sr.de/sr/home/nachri… Image
How long did it take to pile up 2 weeks worth of operation at Bexbach coal power plant?

~ one month:
😵‍💫
"We have enough coal to power our entire fleet for 30 days...
but it is stored in Rotterdam.
and transport capacity is short..."
(2022/08/01)
www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/ko… Image
"#France no longer has an 'abundant' supply of power.
We have lost all our margins to meet electricity demand"

=> during some peak hours in winter, everyone in 🇫🇷 will need to cut back power usage to avoid power cuts.

montelnews.com/news/1348001/f… Image
🇳🇱 Dutch Police:
"Due to a #power failure, we ask everyone to avoid the roads in #Flevoland . More later."

🙄... what ?!
Okayyy...
High voltage #power lines overheating so much that they expand and nearly touch the ground, smoking from the heat.
😯⚡️🔥
Quite a good reason to avoid the streets in 🇳🇱NL #Flevoland.

Substation and several other electrical installations on fire
Grid provider #Flevoland (NL):
Power restored
"The outage led to a significant dip in the energy supply in the region and outages in various places. Together with #LianderNL we were able to divert the power and restore it within an hour."
Seems like in #Flevoland (NL)
the power regulation dysfunction also affected trainlines...😧
Reason for the major grid malfunction in #Flevoland (NL):

"A short circuit could not be stopped quickly enough
due to a technical problem..."

Image
"Our high voltage connection is not in good shape..."
#Flevoland (NL) ⚡️😵‍💫
(slight understatement)
Meanwhile
in Russia:

The only remaining gas turbine for #NordStream1 is "leaking oil..."
🤷
~"responsible authorities deem the detected faults & nonconformances would make further use of #NordStream1´s last gas turbine unsafe☠️.
Operation of this turbine should be suspended"

(~the same fault had been detected on other turbines earlier)🙄
Brave Siemens engineers - you were sooo close to saving Europe´s gas supply.

(but maybe there was simply no way for you to win this game)
Official "catch 22":
🤔to repair the turbine, it would need to be sent to ~Siemens (most likely Canada, from where there´s ~somehow no way for turbines to ever return to Gazprom at the moment)

Until repairs are finished,
#NordStream1 stays fully shut down
Image
That pipe is empty.
And it is expected to stay empty.
#NordStream1
nord-stream.info Image
So,
the webiste that had an early discussion of what happened during the #Flevoland power system failure yesterday...
immediately went into "overload" (exceeding capacity).

It´s accessible again, this morning.
And it´s quite interesting...
hoogspanningsnet.com Image
According to this:
Yesterday´s #Flevoland power system failure might have been the result of 2 safety features failing.
(No root cause for the initial short circuit known, so far.)

The cables: most likely heavily damaged, need to be replaced...
hoogspanningsnet.com Image
Not far from yesterday´s short circuit (red circle),
a storm had blown over several masts last year.
They had been provisionally replaced...

A first guess is that this might have contributed to yesterday´s power system failure in Flevoland (NL),
somehow.
webkaart.hoogspanningsnet.com/index2.php#13/… Image
😯🇳🇱#Flevoland🤔
"Not even when heated powerlines touched the railway´s catenary, any fuse went off.
The #power stayed on. It looks like no ´trip command´ (to the circuit breakers) had any effect.
Power only went off, when a component had burned through."
hoogspanningsnet.com Image
🤔Not far from the Dutch border, a bit later:
An incident with an internal #power transformer lead to a partial power outage at BP´s #refinery in Lingen (Germany).

(unclear how production is affected)
bp.com/de_de/germany/… Image
Dutch railnet provider ProRail estimates:
´Several kilometers of catenary and train protection systems have been roasted - not only above & along the rails, but also under ground.´

Damage: millions
No trains for at least 2 weeks.
#Flevoland power failure
prorail.nl/nieuws/langdur… Image
Next to the Flevoland power failure site, a (neighborhood owned!) 83 windturbine park was opened a week ago.
It provides power to ~300,000 people -
but when the grid went crazy, half of the turbines shut down.

A technician reactivates them one by one, now
omroepflevoland.nl/nieuws/300156/…
🤨Did you have an extra hot shower last week?

Germany´s network authority suspects a recent increase in gas consumption might have to do with increased private gas use...
In 2018
Germany held an administrative excercise about an imaginary ´gas shortage during extreme cold wave´.

It included key players who simply ignored instructions.

But (to keep it simple) it was assumed that power stations always received enough gas🙄
bbk.bund.de/DE/Themen/Kris… Image
In Germany´s 2018 (´gas shortage´) excercise,
the imaginary severe cold snap is over in ~2 weeks, but gas storage plummets from ~40% to~20% during the coldest ~2 days.

Looks like they then decided to cut off the ´warmest´ regions from gas supply...
bbk.bund.de/SharedDocs/Dow… Image
During Germany´s 2018 desktop excercise, they tried to evacuate an entirely out of gas (small) city - that didn´t go well (on paper).
The excercise ended then.

(Noting that in real life it would take WEEKS to reactivate every single gas outlet...)🙄
bbk.bund.de/SharedDocs/Dow… Image
Germany´s network authority clarifies that in case of acute gas shortage they´d ´not instruct´ private consumers or ´essential institutions´ to completely shut off their gas...

(🙄I´d guess they´d also not ask politely, if regional gas pressure collapses)
Image
Germany is just presenting an updated Electricity GridStress Assessment
Now also featuring:
~massivley reduced nuclear generation in France
~drought/low river levels limiting coal transport / coolant water
~people using electric heaters to replace gas
...
bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/D… Image
From Germany´s viewpoint,
there will not be sufficient #electricity supply for all parts of #Europe this winter.
"In some cases, there might also be some hours of energy shortage in Germany..."
bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/D… Image
Q: ~"Would Germany consider restricting energy exports?"
A: ~"We all need open energy markets.
But if (for example) France would not manage to bring its nuclear plants back online, this would be a one-sided trade. We´d certainly intervene, then..."

😳
bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/L…
The 🇫🇷PM, the Energy Minister, now even a neighboring country🇩🇪, all wishing ´success´ (or else...)

France´s energy provider #EDF is currently under *extreme* pressure to restart nuclear reactors.
🙄
francebleu.fr/infos/economie… Image
France´s president comes up with another "2-sided trade" idea:

"🇫🇷France will supply gas to 🇩🇪Germany,
so Germany could send electricity to France in return"

(not a new idea, this had been discussed for a while now...)
france24.com/en/europe/2022… Image
The physical market (delivery of gas & energy) is working.
But the amount of money to make ~'reservations for energy' is now more absurd than it ever was:
🔫~"1.5 Trillion € needed or the trade system will crash
(and that's a conservative estimate)"
The same man (Equinor's senior VP for gas & power) who warned of energy trade's imminent collapse comes up with an alternative:

"a wide-scale demand reduction would be the only feasible short-term solution to Europe's power crisis"...
🤷
reuters.com/business/energ…
Maybe the idea that
"Countries should buy energy jointly to achieve better prices..."
is a bit outdated, these days.
🙄...
"Buying energy jointly" had been the norm for several districts in Germany.
This year, they will need to stop:
they found no supplier willing to sell such a huge contract.
"Gas providers would not know if they'd have enough gas to fulfill large contracts"
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe… Image
This winter, there´ll be no tomatoes from Denmark.

It´s not about gas (they´d already replaced that),
but the plants need an awful lot of energy for growlights.
As well as cucumbers, flowers, medicinal plants... Danish producer will move to Spain instead.
finans.dk/erhverv/ECE143…
Oh.
An #OMV petrol station in #Austria has run out of #Diesel😯

Yes, similar things happened everywhere recently - but Austria´s OMV petrol stations are closely tied to OMV´s own refinery production.
So if they´re out of Diesel, there is ~no Diesel.
noe.orf.at/stories/317243… Image
"~no Diesel" will not mean "no Diesel at all".
But #Austria´s usual Diesel import streams are substantially reduced (and their own production still remains ~80% offline).

#Diesel periodically ´sold out´ may become more common in the coming days.
heute.at/s/omv-darum-ka…
With Austria running low on Diesel, a lot depends on Hungary´s only refinery (MOL).
They are currently undergoing maintenance
but they´ll try to get production running again
as soon as possible

(next time you refill, share a thought for MOL´s neighbors🙄)
budapestkornyeke.hu/figyelmeztetes… Image
If you´re waiting for essential imports (like: your PS5, or AdBlue for your truck fleet),
the reason why it doesn´t arrive may lie in the North Sea:
2% of world´s container ship capacity is currently sitting in a traffic jam, there...
(~200,000 containers)
ifw-kiel.de/de/publikation… Image
"Germany needs ~7.5 million liters of #AdBlue per day
(just for logistics and private cars)"
says fertilizer producer SKW, who decided to shut down its AdBlue production, due to exorbitant costs.

(in case you´d import it: that´s ~300 ISO tank containers)
n-tv.de/ticker/Produkt… Image
Europe´s non-ferrous metal producers have written a chilling letter to EU leadership,
stating that their industry is about to go under
in "~a perfect storm of sky-high electricity prices...
and remaining power being insufficient to cover market needs"
eurometaux.eu/media/qnhn5k30… Image
Not long ago,
the main goal was to push Europe´s industry to ´carbon-neutral´ level.

Some industry-processes would use up to 10 times more electricity than before (with carbon), but ´somehow´ all that electricity would be generated, somewhere...
static.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Proj… Image
Especially in Germany,
Industry made it clear that "going carbon neutral would need a longterm guarantee for internationally competitive energy costs..."
static.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Proj… Image
Last year,
there was a warning that EU´s ´carbon neutral industry´ policy was ~patchy and
-simply said-
would not add up.

🤷
static.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Proj… Image
Unsurprisingly,
Germany´s latest gas sitrep shows industry gas consumption decreased (collapsed?) even more in August than in previous months...
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
Inexplicably(?), #Germany´s latest gas sitrep shows that gas consumption (over all) in August was once again higher than last year...
🙄
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
Quite surprisingly,
🇳🇴#Norway´s gas exports to 🇩🇪#Germany seem to have dropped down substantially, the last days...
🤔
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image
There seems to be a phase of lower 🇳🇴gas flow 🫤 ahead:
#Norway had delivered as much gas as possible during summer (to fill up EU gas storage).
They even postponed scheduled maintenance...
and so maintenance will finally need to take place right now.
energynews.pro/en/norway-deli… Image
August 17th, 2022
17h - 18h

Something happened that no-one can explain:
electricity prices in the baltic states suddenly exploded (to 4,000€ per MWh).🤔
Only for one hour. Then they returned to ´normal´ (only absurdly high as in neighbor states) numbers.
nordpoolgroup.com/en/Market-data… Image
If you feel that energy trading has become intransparent and you have a hard time trying to understand what´s going on there...
you´re in good company: competition authorities and regulators are facing the same issue.
😣
news.err.ee/1608709135/reg… Image
Poland took advantage of 'cheaper' (albeit dirtier) homegrown lignite energy.
But 'cheap & dirty' won't help anymore.

There's simply not enough demand in EU anymore to justify full production even of Europe's cheapest steel...

poland.arcelormittal.com/fileadmin/Cont… Image
An economist from #Norway was cited with an odd idea:
"Cheer for high electricity prices!
They mean we (Norway) can earn so much by selling our energy to other countries,🤑
that Norwegians can get compensated 100%,
and there´d still be money left!"

🙄...
nrk.no/norge/okonom-o… Image
*(Narrator voice: "but things didn´t go as planned")*

Last week,
#Norway´s electricity flow was
70% import into Norway
30% export from Norway
😯
Norway´s cashcow (waterpower) isn´t running as usual...
statnett.no/for-aktorer-i-… Image
Today,
a first waterpower provider in South #Norway has stopped producing power at one plant.
2 others are running on lowest possible flow.

"Little precipitation is forecast for the next few weeks",
reservoirs are already quite low in this region.
🌤️🙄🌂
kommunikasjon.ntb.no/pressemelding/… Image
The Netherlands may soon have ~too much wind power for parts of their (´West Friesland´) grid.
So they pulled an old 170-ton transformer out
and a new 250-ton transformer was brought in.
...
(those are not built in a day and actually are pretty scarce now)
Image
😵‍💫While the new transformer for West Friesland´s grid was being transported, the road collapsed under the weight.
The rare 250-ton transformer is now lying in a fairly inaccessible meadow.
It ´may take weeks or months´ to salvage it and check for damages.
rtvnof.nl/waterleiding-b…
"~We´re trying really hard,
but due to the current situation we cannot provide hydrochloric acid anymore"
(A major German retailer of industrial chemicals)

Hydrochloric acid is a widely used chemical for food, pharma, metal processing, water treatment,...
csc-jaekle.de/unternehmen/ak… Image
Turns out the hydrochloric acid (HCl) shortage started with COVID19,
when automotive industry shut down and demand for polyurethane (for car seats etc) collapsed... (HCl is a sideproduct)

(according to this presentation from 2021):
blog.donau-chemie-group.com/blog-posts/sal… Image
There are other ways to produce hydrochloric acid (involving chlorine from electrolysis), but the energy costs have now become prohibitive...

One major German plant has simply shut down operations (never restarted after a product leak)...
steiner-chemie.de/aktuelles/natr… Image
As not only hydrochloric acid, but also caustic soda are becoming (regionally) unavailable, other producers are also affected.

(treat your mousepad (or diving suit) well - might be difficult to get a new (locally made) one, these days)
🤿🖱️
rubberworld.com/arlanxeo-decla… Image
Looks like September will be a bit bumpy (German gas storage wise),
as Norway & Belgium perform maintenance on their supply routes and Germany´s largest storage site will undergo scheduled maintenance as well...
(according to today´s 🇩🇪 gas sitrep)
bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/… Image

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More from @KlimaZen

KlimaZen Profile picture
Nov 24, 2020
Meanwhile in #France,
"the peak of this second wave is over"

(according to the President in his Adress to the Nation):
Wait... "the peak is over" doesn´t mean "it´s back to normal"!

Confinement will only fall on December 15,
if there´s less than 5.000 new cases a day.
(today it´s ~9.000).

France is disappointed.🙁

Although they certainly can make it happen.
Meanwhile in #Switzerland:
(excess mortality of the second wave is significant)

Good news: fastest decrease in infections happens in the worst hit areas now.
Image
Read 2817 tweets
KlimaZen Profile picture
Jul 7, 2020
As #COVID19 cases are found to spread, #Melbourne (city of ~5 million) tries to contain them by going into #Lockdown.
(The interview features the idea of a dedicated #Quarantine building - that would actually help, I guess)...
"People acting as if the pandemic was over was 'not the answer, it is part of the problem' ".

"The virus had leaked from postcodes already under the stay-at-home orders to other parts of #Melbourne."
(and beyond, it is feared).
Due to #Melbourne's outbreak, neighbouring South Australia is about to completely close it's borders to #Victoria.

(Nearly) no exceptions. And those essential few who are allowed in, will have to wear facemasks the entire time...
Read 2915 tweets
KlimaZen Profile picture
Jun 23, 2020
Vorpommern-Greifswald district (where rejections of #Gütersloh residents took place, yesterday)
has specific rules:
"Those who return from international risk areas (out of Germany) or whose Corona-Warning App has alerted them, need to report to authorites"
kreis-vg.de Image
In fact, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's Corona-ordinance really prohibits entry of people from international risk areas AND german risk areas as well.
It's just not prominently featured on their websites.

(Overlooked that myself, hence deleted earlier tweet)
landesrecht-mv.de/jportal/portal… Image
People from #Gütersloh district may have to scrap all their holiday plans anyway...

An official #Lockdown is just being announced for the entire district.
(for one week, as of now)
Read 2556 tweets

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