What happens if we allow #SARS2 to become endemic? What’s going to happen to us & what’s going to happen to the virus?

If we allow it to become endemic—and some would argue that it is already endemic—this does not mean that it is going to attenuate, not whatsoever. 1/
It is not true that more transmissible versions of #SARS2 will be more benign. What we are seeing is more aggressive, more transmissible versions which are creating more severe illness. And the virus is still adapting to our physiology. It’s doing it at a fantastic rate 2/
What we’re going to see is that it will continue to work against our immune systems, meaning become more immune evasive. It’s going to become more chronic as an infection. 3/
For this virus to become #endemic, we would see a lot of *maimed* people with #autoimmunity. And with immune memory, that is not able to fully prevent mild and moderate infections again. 4/
The damage could be cumulative. The virus can also cause vascular injury like what we see with Feline CoV in a disease called feline infectious peritonitis, which is fatal for cats where it causes very small capillaries to become what’s called “string vessels” and get blocked 5/
Additionally, it can potentially “kill off” parts of the vascular system, especially in the brain.
For this thing to become endemic also means these disease-causing mechanisms are not going away. 6/
In summary, the virus is causing severe immune dysregulation, meaning the ability for B-cells & T-cells to communicate and provide an appropriate response is being severely impacted. 7/
And, additionally, the #dysregulation is causing T-cells that don’t routinely attack your own body to now create the potential for an #autoimmune disorder to develop in people who have been infected by this virus. 8/
There was a recent study that found it was 20,000 years ago that an ancient #coronavirus etched its imprint into our DNA. It selected traits in us that we’re better at surviving the infection. So, it selected us & exerted a selection pressure on us 9/

The study found evidence that a previously unknown ancient CoV infected people in east Asia: China, Japan & Vietnam.

The discovery that a CoV outbreak lasted for approximately 20,000 years has very important implications for the current pandemic. 10/

What is going on right now might be going on for generations and generations. 11/
Modern science has enabled humanity to understand viruses & intervene to predict & control any pandemic, but this scientific knowledge has been ignored by the political elite as they impose a herd immunity program that has allowed the virus to proliferate almost unhindered. 12/
Summary: What happens with endemic #Covid:
1-SARS2 will not become benign
2-We may see a lot of maimed people w/ autoimmunity
3-Vascular injury & “string vessels" blocking capillaries
4-Further decreases in life expectancy
5-Herd immunity approach will be disastrous 13/
The above thread is based on a recent interview of T cell immunologist @fitterhappierAJ 👇 14/end


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More from @vipintukur

12 Nov
Natural immunity post-#SARS2 infection may not be perfect agains #Delta variant!!

A new study from #Australia:

“The duration & magnitude of #SARS2 immunity after infection, especially wrt the emergence of new VOCs”

At 12 months after mild-COVID19:

1->90% of convalescents remained seropositive for RBD-IgG & 88.9% had circulating RBD-specific memory B cells.

2-Despite this, only 51.2% convalescents had serum neutralising activity against homologous live-SARS2 virus

3-The neutralising activity decreased to 44.2% against live Alpha, 4.6% against Beta, 11.6% against Gamma & 16.2%, against Delta

4-Spike & non-Spike-specific T cells were detected in >50% of convalescents

Read 7 tweets
15 Oct
Iranian #COVID19 epidemic: Salient features

Continued circulation of #SARS2 from late jan 2020 to Sep 2021 in iran despite >100% attack rates in 11 provinces. 1/ Image
As of Sep 21, only 48% (95% CI: 43-55%) of COVID deaths in Iran have been reported. Approx 0.4% of the population have died of COVID so far
Estimated #IFR increased by a factor of ~2 over the course of the epidemic (from wave 1 to 5).

Across different ages, the 3rd wave in Oct 2020 & the current wave with #Delta had the largest impact on younger age-groups. 3/
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
Are the #boosters already waning?

Booster effectiveness against breakthrough coronavirus infection is already waning.

The protection against infection among Pfizer booster recipients ages 60+ topped out by day 30 then fell steadily. 1/ Image
By day 58, the #booster appeared to be providing around 40% of the maximum increased level of protection above the initial 2-dose series.

New data finds boosters are helping more than just 50+, but that the effects already appear to be decreasing. 2/ Image
Bottom line: The case for boosters to prevent infection for all adults is now far stronger, if that is our goal. But how long that protection lasts remains unclear at best and boosters may turn out to lower the #Ro of #SARS2 only briefly. 3/
Read 5 tweets
3 Oct
How effective are #COVID vaccines against #transmissions?

Key points:

1-Vaccination reduces transmission of #Delta, but by less than #Alpha
2-Alpha: Pfizer 62%, AZ 38% reduction
Delta: Pfizer 37%, AZ 15% reduction (aOR)
3-The impact of vaccination decreased over time 1/
4-Vaccinated people with breakthrough infections were less likely to spread Covid.
5-Vaccination not only reduces the risk of becoming seriously ill from the virus, it also protects those around you. 2/
6-Contacts of vaccinated cases were less likely get Covid than contacts of unvaccinated cases.
7-Most transmission occurred in households, showing that vaccination can protect household members—including kids not yet eligible for vaccination. 3/

Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
No doubt, #molnupiravir is touted as a ‘game changer’ as far as therapeutics against #SARS2 are concerned. But the news related to its probable #mutagenic potential comes as a dampener 1/
#rNHC, an active metabolite of #Molnupiravir, inhibits SARS2 replication in cell cultures through lethal mutagenesis, but is also mutagenic to mammalian host cells 2/

Read this paper👇
#rNHC has powerful in vitro and in vivo activity against a large number of highly pathogenic emerging RNA viruses and represents a potentially important drug for use in the current and future pandemics. 3/
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
What might #Covid19 look like once the pandemic is over?

With #SARS2 it’s already clear that immunity from infection wanes..it might follow..in which protection from infection erodes over time, but protection from severe disease does not. So it would behave like COMMON COLD 1/
Or it’d be like #FLU, where immunity vs. severe disease also wanes. Influenza is a more sobering analogy. It, too, causes infections throughout life, but reinfections are often more severe than those caused by the four endemic coronaviruses. 2/
So, the outlook is different if immunity against severe #COVID declines as well. In that case paradoxically, it might be best if the virus keeps infecting people frequently... Avoiding infection at all costs might not be the best strategy for vaccinated people. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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