European #RadicalRight jamboree soon resumes in #Warsaw, without @matteosalvinimi & his #Lega. Maybe I am wrong, but considering the recent fallout between the host #PiS & #Lega, it is rather unlikely that today's meeting will result in anything else than #PR pure.
THREAD 1/3
2/3 The union of European #RadicalRight doesn't appear to be an actual political reality and showcasing close coordination and joint plans for the future is perhaps more difficult for #Lega, #RN, #PiS, #Fidesz & #FratellidItalia than ever since 2019.
3/3 IMHO we won't see similar multilateral gatherings of leading #RadicalRight parties for a while. The main reason that #LePen & #Orbán are present is face saving to avoid the public perception of a total collapse of cooperation.
+1
And here is the closing declaration of the #RadicalRight Forum in Warsaw. No results or advances worth to mentions, just as I suggested in my tweets before. This meeting and its akins are l'art pour l'art shows. The process and the resulting PR is the goal itself.
+2
Furthermore, this Warsaw Forum clearly demonstrated the limits of #Orbán's influence on the European #RadicalRight. He was clearly unable to effectively mediate between #PiS & #Lega or influence the dynamics that led to the fallout between them in any form.
+3 #Orbán is not the mover and shaker behind this process anymore, as he was obviously unable to bring his larger allies together.
+4
The dynamics behind the potential European #RadicalRight alliance have outgrown him, #Orbán becoming largely an observer of the power game between #Salvini, #LePen & #Kaczynski.
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2/4 There appears to be a growing pattern that #Orbán allies look for investment opportunities in the high-tech end of the international defence & security sector. (See the case of #AeroVodochody and its Hungarian investors) reuters.com/article/uk-aer…
3/4 While acquiring lucrative foreign investments (which the seriously indebted #Spacecom is not) might be a logical strategy for a #corrupt#RentSeeking elite, like the circles of #Orbán, there is definitely more behind this story.
What is in the background of the #Lega-#PiS fallout?
THREAD 1/6 #Lega is divided on the question what should be the party's future direction. There is a growing support for heading to #EPP, which puts pressure on @matteosalvinimi, who is otherwise very pragmatic in this question.
2/6 So #Salvini has more options and leeway than his #RadicalRight counterparts, but he also needs palpable results what he can present for his constituency. #Lega
3/6 Allegedly there was an agreement between #Lega & #PiS (or at least that was Lega's communication in the 🇮🇹 media) that #PiS and some of its #ECR allies will join #ID, and that will be the formal and procedural way to forge a single new #RadicalRight political group in the 🇪🇺.
On a leaked audio recording, chairman of the #Hungarian parliament #KövérLászló calls 🇭🇺opposition the most significant #NationalSecurity threat the country is facing and asks the 🇭🇺 domestic intelligence agency to mitigate this threat. (THREAD 1/5) 444.hu/2021/11/27/kov…
2/5 #Kövér addressed the leadership of the domestic intelligence/counter-intelligence agency #AVH in February 2020.
3.
External #ForeignMeddling is only in a small-part responsible for #autocratization and #illiberal developments in the Western World. The main drivers of autocratization in #EU & #NATO countries are overwhelmingly domestic.
2/5 IMHO the regulation doesn't have to have retroactive effect, as it comes into force on January 1, 2021. The coming into force is not postponed, just @EU_Commission
refrains from proposing measures under the regulation, which does not exclude the monitoring of situation in MS.
3/5 @EU_Commission isn't legally bound by the declaration, but apparently is part of the political deal. As the Commission has high margin of discretion how it fulfils its task as Guardian of the Treaties, it can hardly be sued for not proposing measures for any reason.
2/12
According to the plan, an #EUCO declaration will explain/limit the scope of the #RuleofLaw conditionality regulation as well as the timeframe of its application. The deal was allegedly sealed by #Orban & #Morawiecki Tuesday evening. @RULEOFLAWpl rmf24.pl/newsamp-kompro…
3/12
Apparently #EUCO is ready to declare that member states will refrain from the application of the regulation in the Council as long as #CJEU is not ruling about the action for annulment case which will be brought forward against the regulation by 🇵🇱& 🇭🇺. @PiotrBuras1