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22 Dec, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Imperial Coll in London issued a rather grim assessment of #Omicron in the UK.
Key findings:
- "The growth rates estimated for Omicron translate into doubling times of under 2.5 days"
- "reproduction number (R) estimates for
Omicron are above 3"
MORE
imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/mo…
2/
 - "We find strong evidence of immune evasion, both from natural infection, where the risk of reinfection
is 5.41-fold higher for #Omicron than for #Delta & from #vaccine-induced protection.
- Prior study of UK healthcare workers
est'ed that #SARSCoV2 infection...
MORE
3/ cont
- ... gave 85% protection against reinfection over 6 months . Against #Omicron protection anti-reinfection drops to only 19%.
- "We find no evidence of Omicron having different severity from #Delta ."
MORE
4/
 - "Our analysis reinforces the still emerging but increasingly clear picture that #Omicron poses an
immediate and substantial threat to public health in England and more widely."
MORE
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
5/
 So, epidemic doubles every 2.5 days, each person on average passes to 3 others, prior infection offers only 19% defense against reinfection, and there's nothing "mild" about Omicron-induced disease.
Take deep breaths, drink more spiked eggnog.

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

Laurie Garrett Profile picture
21 Dec
The former head of the Natl Intelligence Council thinks America is falling apart -- civilly, or towards civil war? Civility?
"In a country whose extreme violence...can only be accounted for by the omnipresence of guns, we would be foolhardy to bet on it."
thearticle.com/civil-war-is-c…
At FT @gideonrachman cites the above, adding:
"The mood of near-despair in #America is nurturing the opposite emotion among the #Chinese elite — a growing conviction that their country is outperforming the US and will eventually displace it as the world’s dominant power."
MORE
2/"#XiJinping proclaimed that 'the east is rising & the west is in decline'.
The fact that America has suffered 800,000 deaths as a result of the #Covid19 #pandemic, while #China claims a toll of below 5,000, is cited as evidence of the superiority of the Chinese system."
MORE
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
21 Dec
Happy Solstice. @POTUS #JoeBiden will address the Nation today, regarding #Omicron #COVID19 & the Holidays.
MORE
2/ In his Winter Solstice speech @POTUS will tackle hospital #Omicron crises by:
•Mobilizing 1,000 troops to deploy to #COVID19 -burdened hospitals
•Deploying Federal medical personnel available to states immediately
•Activating FEMA response teams to help States
MORE
3/ #Biden #Solstice2021 speech cont.
•Deploying 100s of ambulances & Emergency Medical Teams to transport patients
•Pre-Positioning supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile & deploying ventilators to States.

He'll also be radically ramping up #COVID19 testing.
MORE
Read 5 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
21 Dec
There is so much to talk about today. As #Omicron spreads across #NYC like a summer wildfire in California, it seems clear #vaccination offers little protection against infection, but plenty against severe disease. Thanks to the great folks @HKUniversity we know --
MORE
2/ (cont) that #Omicron infects & reproduces in cells of the bronchus and upper airways. The individual may feel fine, but have billions of viruses that constantly expel as they breathe & talk -- infecting others. If they are #vaccinated fully, individuals mount immune --
MORE
3/-- responses that block #Omicron from penetrating alveoli deep in the lungs, causing pneumonia. They remain ambulatory, vaguely "off" but able to see friends, go to the store, dine out -- spreading virus all of the while. So the #vaccines are a clinical triumph, but --
MORE
Read 7 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
20 Dec
I tweeted that we are in an #Omicron surge in NYC, but then studied today's data here 👇🏽gothamist.com/news/coronavir…
Mea culpa for sloppy reference to Omicron.
Thread follows based on these numbers
2/First of all, averaging 27,000 new #COVID19 cases/day is not sustainable -- even if fewer than 2% of them require a clinical visit or hospitalization. It's the Holidays, staffing is low, and staff is burned out. If caseloads double by Christmas, hospitals will be full.
MORE Image
3/ The difference in #COVID19 incidence-by-immunization-rate now in NYC is striking. Vaccination may not offer 100% protection against infection, but it's clearly of enormous benefit.
MORE Image
Read 8 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
19 Dec
Here're gems from #JenPsaki statement on #JoeManchin
"Sen. Manchin claims that this change of position is related to inflation, but the think tank he cites—the Penn Wharton Budg Instit—issued a report <48 hrs ago that the Build Back Better Act will have virtually no..."
MORE
2/
 "...impact on inflation in the short term, & in the long run...will ease inflationary pressures."
"#Manchin cited deficit concerns in his statement. But the plan is fully paid for...Manchin knows that: #POTUS has told him that repeatedly, including this wk, face to face."
MORE
3/
 "On Tues, Sen #Manchin came to @WhiteHouse & submitted—to #POTUS , in person, directly—a written outline for a #BuildBackBetterAct that was the same size & scope as the President’s, & covered many of the same priorities. Manchin promised to continue conversations..."
MORE
Read 6 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
17 Dec
Linked story has been removed. And the @HKUniversity study pub'ed yesterday, showing China's #vaccine can't hold up to #Omicron has been "refuted" forbes.com/sites/siladity…
After mos of pushing its "Zero-#COVID policy & economic growth, #XiJinping regime is tackling virus by fiat.
China seems to be doing its most to silence #ZhangWenhong -- the "Tony Fauci of China" because he said the #panemic is going to go on for years. theguardian.com/world/2021/sep…
and
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhang_Wen…
Of course, here in the USA the #GOP is waging war on #Fauci as well.
MORE
3/ Yesterday smart @HKUniversity team pub'ed evidence that the #SINOVAC #COVID19 #vaccine is ineffective against #Omicron -- a very inconvenient truth for the billions who have taken it. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
MORE
Read 4 tweets

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