We just updated our COVID-19 model covid19.healthdata.org with the latest data & updated our policy briefings healthdata.org/covid/updates for over 200+ world locations.

We've got good news to confirm about Omicron.🧵
The good news:

As expected, the transmission intensity of Omicron is so great that it sweeps through populations in a very short period of time and then starts to decline.
The numbers of infections and numbers of reported cases really seem alarming to most people because they are much higher than what we’ve seen in other waves in the pandemic. But the health effects of #omicron, and the effects on death, are very muted.
The reason for this is because the severity of Omicron is quite dramatically lower than Delta. There are 3 parts to this reduction in severity:

1. The fraction of cases that have no symptoms at all. For Delta, systematic review suggested about 40% had no symptoms... (continued)
With Omicron, as best as we can make out from a variety of data sources, 80-90% have no symptoms at all. So of these millions of infections that are happening all over the world, there are a huge number with no symptoms at all.
2. Among those people who have symptoms, the number who end up in the hospital due to Omicron turns out to be half as much as what it was for Delta.
3. For those who end up hospitalized due to Omicron, the number who go on to require intubation or mechanical ventilation, or the fraction who go on to die, looks like it’s down 80-90%.
In short:

A big increase in asymptomatics, half reduction of those who go to hospital among those who are symptomatic, and a five-fold or ten-fold reduction of those dying from COVID-19 while in hospital, you get the observation that Omicron is 90-99% less severe than Delta.

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More from @IHME_UW

23 Dec 21
“Given #Omicron's lower severity, the negative cost of lockdowns and school closures—including financial turmoil, isolation, and lost learning time—far outweigh the benefits.” write @AliHMokdad and @kleachkemon in @ThinkGlobalHlth👇
Estimates suggest that #Omicron is just 3% as deadly as #Delta and 1/10 as likely to cause hospitalization while simultaneously spreading at “stunning” speeds and will likely infect as many people in the next 2 months as SARS-CoV-2 has infected people in the past 2 years
📍The good news is that in most countries, the death toll will be nowhere near as extreme as it was last winter.
Read 11 tweets
15 Dec 21
‼️🆕‼️@HEIresearch x IHME study found that coal accounts for the highest #FossilFuel pollution emissions & related deaths 🧵/8⤵️

Read study here »bit.ly/GBDMAPS
According to the study, more than 27% of all deaths are from outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5), #coal combustion alone was responsible for half of those deaths, with natural gas and #oil combustion accounting for the other half
💡Notably, the burning of solid biofuels (like wood🪵for indoor heating and cooking 🍳), is another source of PM2.5, accounting for an addition 740k deaths, especially across #SouthAsia and Sub-Saharan #Africa.
Read 8 tweets
25 Nov 21
November 25 is International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women. #ViolenceAgainstWomen is a human rights violation that remains largely unreported and manifests in physical, sexual and psychological forms #SpreadTheWord @UN_Women 🧵
TW: Abuse
Have you experienced abuse and need help? If you have felt threatened, unsafe or need assistance, please see the list of country help lines. You are not alone.
TW: Abuse

#ViolenceAgainstWomen can manifest insidiously:
👉 Intimate partner violence (psychological abuse, battering, marital rape, femicide)
👉 Sexual violence and harassment, stalking
👉 Forced marriage & child marriage
👉 Human trafficking
👉 Female genital mutilation
Read 9 tweets
25 Nov 21
🆕 ✨In recent years, low vaccine coverage has led to an increase in #measles cases in the US and #Europe, even after many countries had previously achieved elimination status.

Read the latest from IHME in @ThinkGlobalHlth ⤵️
In the US, nearly 1,300 #measles cases were recorded in 2019, with the vast majority occurring in tight-knit communities with low vaccination rates.
The #EuropeanUnion saw a nearly fivefold increase ⬆️ in measles since 2015, with 20,000 new cases recorded in 2019 and two nations (the #CzechRepublic & #Greece) losing their elimination status.
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23 Nov 21
The latest United States COVID-19 wave is taking its toll on some states’ intensive-care units, with several parts of the country seeing outbreaks that are as bad as ever. #ICU #COVID19 #DeltaVariant #DeltaSurge bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
“Many of our physicians are at a breaking point,” IHME's @AliHMokdad told @business.

“It’s not easy to be day in and day out in an emergency room, in an ICU, looking at someone who is dying because he or she is not vaccinated.” #COVID19 #VaccinesSaveLives #DeltaVariant
In 15 states, patients with confirmed or suspected #COVID19 are taking up more ICU beds than a year earlier, according to @NIH_NIAMS data. These are top states with highest %s of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients:

▪️ Colorado – 41%
▪️ Minnesota – 37%
▪️ Michigan – 34% Image
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22 Nov 21
✨🆕 IHME researchers published today in @sciencedirect – "Estimating the population at high risk for tuberculosis through household exposure in high-incidence countries: a model-based analysis" using #TB data from the 2019 #GBDstudy. #tuberculosis sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
The researchers estimate that in 20 high-incidence countries, 38 million individuals live in a household with someone with pulmonary #tuberculosis — with children under 5 making up 12% of populations with home exposure.
➡️Findings include: #Zimbabwe, #Mozambique, #Zambia, and #Pakistan have the highest proportion of the population with household exposure.
Read 5 tweets

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