Thread by @IHME_UW

“Given #Omicron's lower severity, the negative cost of lockdowns and school closures—including financial turmoil, isolation, and lost learning time—far outweigh the benefits.” write @AliHMokdad and @kleachkemon in @ThinkGlobalHlth👇
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/sensib…

Estimates suggest that #Omicron is just 3% as deadly as #Delta and 1/10 as likely to cause hospitalization while simultaneously spreading at “stunning” speeds and will likely infect as many people in the next 2 months as SARS-CoV-2 has infected people in the past 2 years

📍The good news is that in most countries, the death toll will be nowhere near as extreme as it was last winter.

Still, #Omicron is bad news for health systems struggling with lack of staff and #nurse and #doctor burn-out as well as people forgoing much-needed cancer screenings and surgeries.

abc.net.au/news/2021-12-2…

In #LatinAmerica, in #Brazil, our forecasts show a small #Omicron surge. And in #SoutheastAsia, we don't anticipate an Omicron surge in #Indonesia

covid19.healthdata.org/brazil?view=in…

On the other hand, countries that have suppressed large #COVID waves—like #Australia, #NewZealand, and #Canada—could potentially see the largest increases in hospitalization and deaths with Omicron.

📍We think #Omicron is less deadly than the #flu, but MUCH MORE infectious

How can leaders use this data to protect citizens?
1️⃣ Mask mandates: if 80% of people globally wore masks, it could save more than 150,000 lives by April 1 and reduce pressure on hospitals

2️⃣ Leaders making a big push for citizens to get the third dose: globally, if everyone who is already fully vaccinated received the third dose of a vaccine, over 100,000 lives could be saved by the beginning of April 2022.

3️⃣ To keep the global #economy running, ensure that kids stay in school - employers and schools will have to go back to the drawing board and revise their approach to testing and quarantine.

4️⃣ As we notice the differences we're seeing in #Omicron compared to #Delta, leaders should be informed by hospitalizations for #COVID, not cases to inform the public.

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/sensib…